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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
RAZD
Member (Idle past 242 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


(1)
Message 6 of 952 (871410)
02-02-2020 11:12 AM


US capability to fight virus jeopardised by Trumpski
quote:
Trump Has Sabotaged America’s Coronavirus Response

As it improvises its way through a public health crisis, the United States has never been less prepared for a pandemic.

For the United States, the answers are especially worrying because the government has intentionally rendered itself incapable. In 2018, the Trump administration fired the government’s entire pandemic response chain of command, including the White House management infrastructure. In numerous phone calls and emails with key agencies across the U.S. government, the only consistent response I encountered was distressed confusion. If the United States still has a clear chain of command for pandemic response, the White House urgently needs to clarify what it is.

In the spring of 2018, the White House pushed Congress to cut funding for Obama-era disease security programs, proposing to eliminate $252 million in previously committed resources for rebuilding health systems in Ebola-ravaged Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. Under fire from both sides of the aisle, President Donald Trump dropped the proposal to eliminate Ebola funds a month later. But other White House efforts included reducing $15 billion in national health spending and cutting the global disease-fighting operational budgets of the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS. And the government’s $30 million Complex Crises Fund was eliminated.

In May 2018, Trump ordered the NSC’s entire global health security unit shut down, calling for reassignment of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer and dissolution of his team inside the agency. The month before, then-White House National Security Advisor John Bolton pressured Ziemer’s DHS counterpart, Tom Bossert, to resign along with his team. Neither the NSC nor DHS epidemic teams have been replaced. The global health section of the CDC was so drastically cut in 2018 that much of its staff was laid off and the number of countries it was working in was reduced from 49 to merely 10. Meanwhile, throughout 2018, the U.S. Agency for International Development and its director, Mark Green, came repeatedly under fire from both the White House and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. And though Congress has so far managed to block Trump administration plans to cut the U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps by 40 percent, the disease-fighting cadres have steadily eroded as retiring officers go unreplaced.


Trump's reason? Because Obama ...

Now I'm not too worried about Corona ... yet. The question is what happens when it mutates to a more lethal form -- we already know it is human/human transmittable -- can the US handle it or will they get help from China ...

Just askin

But Mob Boss Trump will not be concerned about it, he will be busy building his wall ...

Enjoy


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Replies to this message:
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RAZD
Member (Idle past 242 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 14 of 952 (871456)
02-03-2020 11:57 AM
Reply to: Message 8 by PaulK
02-02-2020 1:39 PM


Re: US capability to fight virus jeopardised by Trumpski
Don’t worry, you can drink bleach!

I wish I was kidding but apparently the QAnon loons are promoting “Miracle Mineral Solution” as a cure. Which is basically bleach.

Could be one way to reduce stupid in the gene pool ... can they get a blanket Darwin Awards: Evolution In Action

For the greater good?


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RAZD
Member (Idle past 242 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 37 of 952 (873604)
03-17-2020 1:28 PM
Reply to: Message 28 by Percy
03-17-2020 11:06 AM


Re: A Question About Masks
But if the virus can survive in the air for up to three hours then people can breath it in, and therefore an N95 mask can be effective. Very effective.

The only quibble I have with this is that the virus can be associated with moisture droplets from coughs and sneezes, and ordinary masks can block these sized particles. Not full protection but better than nothing. Maybe spritz the mask with hand sanitizer?

Certainly washing hands frequently (and before emptying the dishwasher, etc) goes a long way. Why not wash your face as well, with a paper towel that is disposed carefully? Wear gloves to go outside and dispose when home. Gloves will protect you from virus on doorknobs etc.

Any rubber glove should work. Thick kitchen gloves can be washed just like your hands.

Just some thoughts.

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : .


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RAZD
Member (Idle past 242 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 77 of 952 (873783)
03-19-2020 12:50 PM
Reply to: Message 65 by caffeine
03-18-2020 3:29 PM


Re: A Question About Masks
We are experiencing a day of light rain, and it seems to me this should take a lot of particulates out of the air, as the small droplets form on particulates.

Thoughts?

Enjoy


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RAZD
Member (Idle past 242 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 152 of 952 (874019)
03-23-2020 3:56 PM


Meanwhile ... Rand Paul
Sen. Rand Paul kept working for six days after virus test

quote:
WASHINGTON -- Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul was tested a week ago for the novel coronavirus, but continued working at the Capitol because he “felt that it was highly unlikely” he was sick since had no symptoms of the illness, he said Monday. Paul also said he did not have direct contact with anyone who tested positive for the virus or was sick.

Paul announced Sunday that he had tested positive for the virus, becoming the first case of COVID-19 in the Senate and raising fears about further transmission of the virus among senators, including some who are in their 70's and 80's.


If a significant number of senators get infected, could it change the balance of power?

Enjoy


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RAZD
Member (Idle past 242 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
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Message 165 of 952 (874042)
03-23-2020 10:36 PM
Reply to: Message 162 by Faith
03-23-2020 7:03 PM


Re: Only if death is the only alternative
something weird going on ... making 3 copies of this post

Edited by RAZD, : No reason given.


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RAZD
Member (Idle past 242 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 166 of 952 (874043)
03-23-2020 10:42 PM
Reply to: Message 162 by Faith
03-23-2020 7:03 PM


another alternative
What have you heard about the Cuban drug used in China and Italy?

quote:
Cuba’s Interferon drug effective against coronavirus

Cuba’s Interferon drug effective against coronavirus.

Helen Yaffe, a specialist in Cuban and Latin American development at the University of Glasgow has testified that Cuba’s Interferon Alfa-2B, is now being used to combat the effects of COVID-19. It was used in China, she wrote in a blog published by the London School of Economics on 18 March.

Yaffe said Cuba was able to develop the drug because of its early entry into the biotech industry, which allowed it to harness international expertise and develop medicines to fight dengue fever and meningitis.

The Chinese state rolled into action to combat its spread and care for those infected. Amongst the 30 medicines chosen by the Chinese National Health Commission to fight the virus was a Cuban anti-viral drug called Interferon Alfa-2B, which has been produced in China by the Cuban-Chinese joint venture ChangHeber since 2003.

Cuban Interferon Alfa-2B has proven effective for viruses with characteristics similar to those of COVID-19. Cuban biotech specialist Dr Luis Herrera Martínez explains that “its use prevents aggravation and complications in patients, reaching that stage that can ultimately result in death.”


Not a vaccine, but it appears to mitigate the worst effects and improve the chances for the patients.

Also see Cuba’s Contribution to Combatting COVID-19 - CounterPunch.org ... interferon produced without patent so should not have large cost/marketing ... damn commies ...

quote:
... In March 1981, six Cubans spent 12 days in Finland with the Finnish doctor Kari Cantell, who in the 1970s had isolated interferon from human cells, and had shared the breakthrough by declining to patent the procedure. The Cubans learned to produce large quantities of interferon.

Within 45 days of returning to the island, they had produced their first Cuban batch of interferon, the quality of which was confirmed by Cantell’s laboratory in Finland. ...


Also

quote:
Cuban interferon is effective against covid-19

Interferon alpha 2b is one of the most widely used drugs worldwide to treat patients infected with covid-19. This recombinant that counteracts viral diseases is of Cuban origin.

The drug was created on May 28, 1981 in Havana. A small team of researchers from the Cuban National Research Center and the Hematology Institute were the ones who made the first interferon from white blood cells, under the command of Commander Fidel Castro.

The technology to produce the Heberon Alfa R is incorporated into the joint venture. Already in 2007 the sanitary registration of the product in China was obtained and its marketing began in the Asian country.

Applications. The drug is used to help fight certain types of cancer and other viral diseases; to treat chronic hepatitis B and C infection, hairy cell leukemia, genital warts, Kaposi’s sarcoma, and malignant melanoma follicular non-Hodgkin lymphoma.


Now I knew that Cuba reportedly had a vaccine that combated breast cancer, shrinking the tumors in patients. I did not know that they had this affecting follicular non-Hodgkin lymphoma (my cancer) ...

Might be more worthwhile than Quinines, as there are already positive results.

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : cancer


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RAZD
Member (Idle past 242 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 179 of 952 (874072)
03-24-2020 1:35 PM
Reply to: Message 174 by Faith
03-24-2020 11:34 AM


Re: The Quinine Drugs Problematic Miracle Cure?
quote:
Arizona man dies after ingesting chloroquine in hopes of treating coronavirus — USA TODAY
Updated 1:11 pm EDT Mar. 24, 2020

PHOENIX – A man has died and his wife was in critical care Monday after the couple ingested a chemical as self-medication for the new coronavirus, Banner Health announced in a press release.
The couple, both in their 60s, ingested chloroquine phosphate, which is an additive commonly used at aquariums to clean fish tanks, the news release said. Within 30 minutes of ingestion, they experienced effects that required admittance to a Banner Health hospital, the hospital said.


Looks like a BAD idea.

Meanwhile the Cuban Interferon alpha 2b continues to work but is curiously not mentioned by whitehouse ...

Perhaps because Cuban? Bias?

Enjoy


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RAZD
Member (Idle past 242 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 211 of 952 (874115)
03-25-2020 10:29 AM
Reply to: Message 181 by Faith
03-24-2020 1:59 PM


Re: The Quinine Drugs Problematic Miracle Cure?
Whatever THAT was was certainly a bad idea, but what was it?

Moral don't take anything suggested by some person on the internet.

Enjoy


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RAZD
Member (Idle past 242 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 220 of 952 (874124)
03-25-2020 12:12 PM
Reply to: Message 175 by Faith
03-24-2020 11:44 AM


Cuban Interferon Innoculation used against Covid-19 - where's the news?
Used successfully in China and Italy and other locations

US news curiously silent, while Trump pushes untested likely bogus flu vaccine ...

Cuba uses "wonder drug" to fight coronavirus around the world despite U.S. sanctions

quote:
Cuba has mobilized its medical corps around the world to distribute a new "wonder drug" that officials there say is capable of treating the new coronavirus despite the United States' strict sanctions that continue to pressure the communist-run island.

The drug, called Interferon Alpha-2B Recombinant (IFNrec), is jointly developed by scientists from Cuba and China, where the coronavirus COVID-19 disease outbreak first emerged late last year. Already active in China since January, the Cuban Medical Brigades began deploying to dozens of nations, providing personnel and products such as its new anti-viral drug to battle the disease that has exceeded 400,000 confirmed cases across the globe. As of Tuesday, over 100,000 people have recovered from the infection and more than 18,000 have died.


Could US sanctions and presidential bias be preventing Americans from getting treatment that works elsewhere in the world?

Just wondering.

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : No reason given.


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RAZD
Member (Idle past 242 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 223 of 952 (874128)
03-25-2020 2:47 PM
Reply to: Message 222 by Percy
03-25-2020 1:49 PM


Re: Cuban Interferon Innoculation used against Covid-19 - where's the news?
Curious. There are several articles about this drug, also involving Charles Weissmann at the University of Zurich, but with Cuba being the first to isolate it.

Doing a search for Interferon alfa-2b the top stories are about Cuba

Cuba's wonder drug
Cuba’s Contribution to Combatting COVID-19 - CounterPunch.org
Cuba’s Interferon drug effective against coronavirus

The fourth is about the drug: Interferon alfa-2b Uses, Side Effects & Warnings - Drugs.com

What I see from the articles is Cuban doctors working with

quote:
The world's first biotechnology enterprise, Genetech, was founded in San Francisco in 1976, followed by AMGen in Los Angeles in 1980. One year later, the Biological Front, a professional interdisciplinary forum, was set up to develop the industry in Cuba. ... Cuban biotechnology expanded and took on an increasingly strategic role in both the public health sector and the national economic development plan. ...

... In March 1981, six Cubans spent 12 days in Finland with the Finnish doctor Kari Cantell, who in the 1970s had isolated interferon from human cells and had shared the breakthrough by declining to patent the procedure. The Cubans learned to produce large quantities of interferon.

Within 45 days of returning to the island, they had produced their first Cuban batch of interferon, the quality of which was confirmed by Cantell's laboratory in Finland. ...


Cuba proceeded to produce large quantities and used it to combat dengue.

Even still I see no mention of it's use in the US even though it is proven effective in China and elsewhere, and that is the issue at question.

Enjoy.


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RAZD
Member (Idle past 242 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 297 of 952 (874283)
03-28-2020 11:06 AM
Reply to: Message 294 by Percy
03-28-2020 8:48 AM


Typhoid Mary?
Rhode Island hunting down New Yorkers seeking coronavirus refuge, reports Fox News. The police state has arrived. From Rhode Island sending cops, National Guard to find New Yorkers seeking coronavirus refuge:

To ensure that people fleeing an epicenter are not "Typhoid Mary" carriers without symptoms, hence requiring 14 day quarantine, as are people returning from Europe. What made Typhoid Mary so devastating was that she kept going from town to town, leaving when the plague appeared.

We will likely see a lot of such behavior, because people ...

ACLU has filed a protest, but I think most of us Rhodies will think it is a good idea and not that intrusive compared to the alternative of letting unknowing carriers spread the disease.

RI seems to be doing okay so far, although recent cases keep adding up (38 added last Friday)

Enjoy?


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RAZD
Member (Idle past 242 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 320 of 952 (874333)
03-29-2020 11:56 AM
Reply to: Message 315 by Percy
03-29-2020 7:51 AM


Rhode Island response
There was sufficient time to address the viral threat. South Korea and the US both saw their first case on the same day, January 20th. One country addressed the problem competently and immediately, the other incompetently while dilly-dallying. Here's their logarithmic graphs:

Thanks, I was thinking that log graphs would be good for showing reductions in infections.

Here's an interesting study done on RI response and ongoing threat.

quote:
What Modeling Says About Coronavirus in Rhode Island — ecoRI News

Here is the general idea.

The SEIR model is the standard model that describes the evolution of epidemics. It has been used to predict and manage pandemics like the 1918 flu, SARS, HIV, and childhood diseases, such as measles. It’s now being used to model the novel coronavirus, or COVID-19, epidemic.

I developed an SEIR model for the spread of COVID-19 that is applicable to Rhode Island using data and parameters from Ferguson’s paper and research reports that analyzed the spread of the virus in China.

While there are uncertainties in the modeling, it’s useful in explaining the general scope of the potential impact of COVID-19 here. The outputs of the model are summarized in the graph below.

The SEIR model applied to Rhode Island. (Roger Warburton/ecoRI News)

Since you can’t change the clinical characteristics of the disease — incubation and infectious periods — there are only two ways to stop an epidemic: vaccination and reducing the Reproduction Number.

And since there is currently no vaccine for COVID-19, we can only reduce the R0, and this is done by reducing contact between people: social/physical distancing.

In Ferguson’s study, his team defined gradually increasing levels of social distancing:

  • Do nothing: disease is allowed to spread unchecked.

  • Case isolation and quarantine: infected people are quarantined.

  • Close schools and universities.

  • Social distancing of people older than 70.
  • Lockdown.

The results of applying the SEIR model to the Rhode Island population are shown in the two-image graphic below.

The impact of social distancing on the number of infectious cases in Rhode Island. (Roger Warburton/ecoRI News)

The top chart shows the number of infectious people over time. As more social-distancing efforts take place, the peak number of cases falls. More social distancing results in less cases, but a slightly longer epidemic.

The lower chart shows the cumulative number of cases over time, which is what is generally reported by the CDC and universities studying the epidemic. For Rhode Island, the number of cases on March 20 was 44. The lower chart shows quite dramatically that social distancing significantly reduces the total number of cases.

The total estimated number of hospitalizations in Rhode Island in this scenario is 1,322. Of those, 59 percent are older than 70 and another 19 percent are 60-69.

There are currently about 2,500 hospital beds in Rhode Island and many of those are already occupied. In this scenario, the state would require about 50 percent more beds.

Not only that, about 40 percent of the hospitalizations could be critical, which is about 540 cases, and that would severely stress the system even further.

If social distancing is successful, the estimated total number of hospitalizations drops to around 400 and critical cases to 180. ... This would still represent an increase in demand of 15 percent in the number of hospital beds required throughout the state.

If moderate social distancing isn’t successful and the infection spreads, the next, and drastic, social distancing approach is lockdown.
Lockdown in Rhode Island when the number of cases reaches 500 in the middle of April. The dark red line shows the epidemic decaying away. (Roger Warburton/ecoRI News)

Lockdown in Rhode Island when the number of cases reaches 500 in the middle of April. The dark red line shows the epidemic decaying away. (Roger Warburton/ecoRI News)

This week, China announced no new cases, which shows that the lockdown may have finally curtailed the disease in China. The world is waiting to see if the lockdown currently being implemented in Italy will also be successful.

The graphic to the right shows the impact of a Rhode Island lockdown in the SEIR model. The model assumes that the number of cases in Rhode Island has grown to 500 by the middle of April. Then, after imposition of the lockdown, the disease dies out a few weeks later.

Lockdown in Rhode Island when the number of cases reaches 500 in the middle of April. The dark red line shows the epidemic decaying away. (Roger Warburton/ecoRI News)

The sooner we go into lock-down the better, as that is the best way we currently have to deal with this disease ... until a vaccine is developed. Social distancing can cut the number of infections/deaths in half. Lock-down should cut the numbers even more.

Our governor has been pretty proactive, the ban on NY vehicles has been extended to all out of state vehicles and we are now under travel ban except for necessities (food shopping etc).

Stats as of this morning:

Total positive cases in RI: 239
RI Deaths from virus: 2
RI hospitalized: 29
Negative tests in RI: 2,541

Hoping all is well with your folks.

Enjoy

Edited by RAZD, : stats as of 3/29/2020


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RAZD
Member (Idle past 242 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 338 of 952 (874371)
03-30-2020 10:45 AM
Reply to: Message 337 by Percy
03-30-2020 8:31 AM


Re: The Latest US Coronavirus Graph
Or news people don’t know how to use log graphs.

Enjoy


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RAZD
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Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
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Message 449 of 952 (874533)
04-05-2020 11:34 AM
Reply to: Message 400 by Percy
04-02-2020 12:13 PM


Re: Masks Again --- Filter Materials
From facebook:

quote:
How to Make a washable Mask w/ filter pocket

How to Make a washable Mask w/ removable Filter
Researched by: Steve Smith, Serenity Smith Forchion, Felicity Billings (anesthesiologist). If you have questions or suggestions, or wish to be added to a communication document to learn who has items to share, or ideas for distribution, Sign Up here https://forms.gle/iSDZqSX8YyWd7nzP9

THE FILTER The element that distinguishes the BTN style mask from many other homemade masks is the incorporation of a layer of Merv-13 filter material. MERV-13 is a grade that can filter down to .3 microns, small enough to stop a virus. How well it works will depend on many factors, including care taken to insert the filter material and care in fitting the mask to your face.

GETTING THE RIGHT FILTER
In order to be ‘better than nothing’ for keeping COVID-19 virus out, it must meet these standards

  • need MERV-13 or higher: Merv "minimum efficiency rating value" measures the tightness of the weave and its ability to catch tiny particles down to .3 micron (including the COVID-19 virus).
  • Or: Home Depot has its own rating number system, FPR, "filter performance rating": need FPR number 10 or higher.
  • Or: 3M brand also has their own rating MPR. " micro particle performance rating": need minimum of 1900.

Some options we found. We focused on furnace filters. We found some already made that we are using, but also found a large wholesale distributor that would be the best to go to.
TOP OPTION: Comes in a bolt of easy to use filter material!
  • Buy the filter material in rolls, instead of pulling it out of existing furnace filters.
  • Call Air Filters USA, Order Replacement Air Filters Online for Residential or Commercial Air Filtration | Air Filters, Inc. / 8282 Warren Road | Houston, Texas 77040;
  • CONTACT: Paul Lipinski / paul.lipinski@airfilterusa.com / 1-800-667-8563 ext 182; Synthetic MERV 14/15 filter media / 24.6" wide x 100 ft long / ASH9MRS-246100 $117.50 for a roll plus shipping. They will cut down industrial rolls and rewind them for mask makers. Their fabric is Merv-14/15, Order and have it shipped UPS to you.

OTHER OPTIONS WE FOUND: You have to disassemble the furnace filter.
  • Brown and Roberts Hardware (local to us in Brattleboro, VT) has Ace brand Merv-13 furnace filters. Call Ed there at 802 257-4566
  • Flanders Brand Furnace Filter, go online to get some shipped: search this: PREpleat® M13 EXTENDED SURFACE PLEATED PANEL FILTERS
  • You local Home Depot may have this in stock: Honeywell FPR 12 filter equivalent to MERV-12 https://www.homedepot.com/...r-Filter-HW12FPR16251/304984285
  • Productive Google search examples for rolls of the material: "MERV-13 filter fabric rolls," " hepa filter fabric rolls wholesale";

If you have a construction mask with replaceable filters you can cut replacements from the material to use. I have one that has a single replaceable filter (looks like a regular cupped filter) and one that has two replaceable filter (looks a bit like smoke mask). You should be able to get the single filter type at hardware stores, like Home Depot, Lowes, Ace Hardware etc, when you get the filter material.

We might want to start a new thread on making masks.

Enjoy

{Message as new topic here - Adminnemooseus]

Edited by Adminnemooseus, : New topic message.


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This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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