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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 1 of 952 (871386)
02-01-2020 5:57 PM


Seems to me that modern understandings about virology and efforts to contain viruses have recently been able to curb outbreaks when compared to levels that have been previously seen in pandemics such as Spanish Flu, Polio, Tuberculosis, Plague, etc.

And this is not for lack of trying on the part of viruses... SARS, Ebola, MERS, Avian Flu, etc. With how much international travel occurs in between the time of contracting a disease, the incubation period, and when one becomes infectious with or without showing symptoms seems like a global pandemic is inevitable.

And I think if it were not for organizations like the WHO, CDC, and other international equivalents that do nothing else but plan and train for this that we would have already had another pandemic rivaling the size and scope of a the Spanish Flu.

Even with all of our safeguards and modern medicine its too easy for an epidemic to reach the level of a pandemic. There's plenty of reason to be concerned about Coronavirus. While the death rate is marginally low compared to other diseases, the rate has enormous potential to be extremely problematic whether you contract it and die, contract it and live, or never contract it at all. Early estimates have it at about 2-4% rate of death. Low, compared to other strains but its said to be extremely transmittable. Its also a virus so it mutates fairly easily. Probably wouldn't be extraordinary that multiple strains arise from it so that even the people who previously contracted a form it may not have the antibodies to fight the next strain 2-3 years down the line. That's why the Flu is a problem year after year. You may be fortunate enough to have a defense to 2 or 3 versions of it, but not 6 or 7 that have mutated enough to where your body is no longer resistant.

You don't need millions and millions of people to die from it to be a huge problem. Imagine if 30 million people are essentially sick within the span of 6 months. Hospitals would be overwhelmed, supplies low and in some cases out indefinitely, and inadequate treatment would actually increase the death toll. Now think of the impact it has on global commerce and work productivity. Wuhan is shut down. Work is almost nil, they are rationing food and supplies, and everyone is terrified. China is just about the worst place on earth you would want a pandemic to form. They are the largest exporter of goods and international travel comes and goes with one of the highest frequencies on earth. What happens in China reverberates around the globe. If their economy shudders, so does everyone else's.

If travel restrictions and mandatory quarantines aren't seriously and aggressively in place, other nations will face the same challenges.

In any event, I don't need to sell you on why it needs to be curbed... the question for you is how bad do you realistically think this will get? Will it fizzle out like the Ebola scare or is this one going to take longer and infect many more? Is this the big one or just another scare?

Edited by Hyroglyphx, : No reason given.

Edited by Hyroglyphx, : No reason given.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 3 of 952 (871393)
02-01-2020 10:13 PM
Reply to: Message 2 by jar
02-01-2020 6:14 PM


Corona Virus seems to be very hard to transmit and very seldom fatal.
Do you have any idea of how many people in the US have been sickened during this 2019-2020 Common Flu season?

Take a look at that first before getting worked up over Corona Virus. Right now the most serious symptom of Corona Virus is not having limes.

The scaremongering headlines are often misleading, but I wouldn't take it lightly either. If virtually all virologists are saying that it poses a considerable health risk than I think that is telling. As to influenza, nobody takes it lightly. Its responsible annually for way more deaths than coronavirus at this point but its also been around a lot longer and more manageable with vaccines to thin out the number of cases.

But I take it you are hedging your bets that it will fizzle out?


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by jar, posted 02-01-2020 6:14 PM jar has responded

Replies to this message:
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Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 9 of 952 (871441)
02-02-2020 10:45 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by PaulK
02-02-2020 1:39 PM


Re: US capability to fight virus jeopardised by Trumpski
Don’t worry, you can drink bleach!
I wish I was kidding but apparently the QAnon loons are promoting “Miracle Mineral Solution” as a cure. Which is basically bleach.

This sort of lunacy is dangerous.

Sounds like a self-correcting problem a la natural selection


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
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Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


(2)
Message 17 of 952 (871709)
02-09-2020 7:34 PM
Reply to: Message 16 by LamarkNewAge
02-09-2020 3:54 PM


Re: More deaths than SARS now.
Considering the fact that this has been a relatively isolated illness, I am going to consider the 800 deaths so far to be serious though one can ask why the Flu deaths don't get the coverage they deserve.

According to the CDC 80,000 people died from common, run-of-the-mill Influenza last year in the US alone and were responsible for in between 9 to 45 million cases that impacted personal lives and industry. And just like most of those deaths, Coronavirus deaths are also mostly attributed to the very young, the very old, or people with immunodeficiencies.

The problem is the speed at which it travels. While I have doubts that it will turn into a true pandemic, its still a huge problem for hundreds of reasons. We should always play it safe and err on the side of caution with these things. Its a virus after all. Just because this strain only has a death rate of 2% doesn't mean that it can't mutate into a much more deadly strain that is harder to treat and is more easily transmittable.

Edited by Adminnemooseus, : Fix quote box.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 16 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-09-2020 3:54 PM LamarkNewAge has not yet responded

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


(2)
Message 19 of 952 (873451)
03-15-2020 6:13 PM


Keeping it in perspective
I think this man's testimony is absolutely spot on in terms of the reality of the situation. I certainly don't believe this pandemic to be some kind of existential threat to humanity, but I do agree that this will get much worse before it gets better. Ebola, MERS, Sars, Avian Flu.... those were child's play compared what this has become and is yet to become. Having said that, people really need to stop freaking out and stripping grocery stores clean of all supplies.

This is a measured perspective and worth the 15 minutes.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

Replies to this message:
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Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 119 of 952 (873939)
03-21-2020 2:57 PM
Reply to: Message 101 by Coragyps
03-20-2020 9:44 PM


Re: My Trip to the Grocery Store
But please don’t really mix bleach and alcohol. Way better than mixing bleach and ammonia, but still not at all good.

A friend of mine took a call where a woman mixed bleach and ammonia to clean her apartment. She slept all night in those fumes. She finally called 911 saying that she was having difficulty breathing. By the time he got there she was already in the throes of death. She was thrashing around incoherently, an incredible volume of blood and what appeared to be lung tissue was gushing from her mouth and nose. And then she died, obviously of suffocation, right in front of him. Said it was one of the most disturbing and disgusting scenes he's ever witnessed. I saw the aftermath photos.... unbelievable amount of blood and pink tissue. Gruesome way to die.

Moral of the story: Do NOT EVER mix bleach and ammonia.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 101 by Coragyps, posted 03-20-2020 9:44 PM Coragyps has not yet responded

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 120 of 952 (873940)
03-21-2020 3:04 PM
Reply to: Message 79 by hooah212002
03-19-2020 2:40 PM


Re: A Question About Masks
I've read an alarming number of comments, on reddit mainly, saying everyone needs to literally stay indoors and that the act of going outside puts you at risk of contraction and death. Keep in mind, I am talking about just going outside. not going to the store. Not going to a restaurant. Not going to a concert. Just going outside your house. Is there ANY validity to this?

I doubt that immensely. I am in a very high risk profession as I have to interact with the public and have very little PPE to act as a barrier. But just being outside is almost no threat. You need to stay healthy; that includes going outside and exercising. Obviously you want to practice social distancing and avoid crowds, that's legit, but the air that's outside is still the same air thats getting on the inside of your house. Don't worry about that.

Edited by Hyroglyphx, : No reason given.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 79 by hooah212002, posted 03-19-2020 2:40 PM hooah212002 has not yet responded

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 132 of 952 (873970)
03-22-2020 6:43 PM


Accurate mapping
This website is run by John's Hopkins University and updates new cases as they come in

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

If the current trend continues at the same pace of the compounding effect we're seeing now, estimates are that 56% Americans, alone, will contract the virus... never mind the rest of the world.

Was watching a Netflix movie last night called "Pandemic" that ironically was released in early 2020. Pretty much all of the concerns they shared a literally manifesting before our eyes.... and the constant theme was "not if, but when." They now know the "when."

Edited by Hyroglyphx, : No reason given.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 249 of 952 (874177)
03-26-2020 10:30 AM
Reply to: Message 248 by Tangle
03-26-2020 9:25 AM


Re: interesting article:
The problem we have here is that without the test, we've no way of knowing whether this is COVID or not. The symptoms are similar to colds and flu.

This has been a major problem worldwide -- a shortage of tests. And even with some of the tests, results can take days. The assumption should always be that if you're feeling sick at all, self-quarantine immediately. Even supposing its just a cold, should you catch COVID-19 on top of that, it might prove to be too overwhelming for your immune system to handle.

I have a coworker who came down with flu-like symptoms. Turned out to be a rare form of influenza but had he gotten that in addition to this new virus it most likely would have been enough to put him on a ventilator.

The other problem is that this coronavirus is already mutating. Of the 117,749 people that have recovered up to this point, and of the 21,100 people who have died, a small fraction of those people got the disease TWICE. The speed at which it is mutating should also be very alarming.

We'll be in this fight for months... I monitor the cases provided by WHO and CDC daily, and the numbers increase 10-20,000 new cases daily. If the trend continues as projected, 52-56% of the U.S. population, alone, will become infected. Can't even fathom what that trend might look like globally.

Imagine though this was Ebola that had gotten out in the same manner... Ebola or any hemorrhagic fever is orders of magnitude more lethal. We would certainly be talking about a legitimate existential threat to humanity at that point. The worst thing is that it is not far-fetched that it could happen. That could happen at any time.

This should be an enormous wake-up call to the entire planet about preparedness.

Edited by Hyroglyphx, : No reason given.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 248 by Tangle, posted 03-26-2020 9:25 AM Tangle has not yet responded

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 374 of 952 (874418)
04-01-2020 9:18 AM


Chinese data
While I do believe China has made huge gains in flattening the curve due to their very aggressive measures, they are essentially reporting zero new cases over the course of almost a week and a half now. I'm not buying that at all. That's not even remotely believable. Just as they tried to cover it up for over a month that they were dealing with a new virus, I think they continue to suppress the actual data to make themselves look better.

If you go to the ArcGIS Dashboards website we see that the spread of the virus extends to the farthest reaches of the earth and continues to grow exponentially. But curiously China's numbers have remained static for more than a week. We also know that incubation periods can be as short as 3 days and as long as 14 days. We also know that the data is suggesting that people are highly contagious long before showing any symptoms. China has basically declared victory and is already talking about opening up movie theaters and going on with life as it was pre-virus.

Furthermore, now that we know that THREE novel viral strains (SARS, Avian Flu, Covid-19) have come from inside the border of China within the last few decades, all due to the disgusting conditions of their wet markets, its time the rest of the world pressures them into shutting those markets down or, at the very least, heavily regulate sanitary conditions.

China should not be able to skip off in to the sunset. They have reeked havoc on people's lives and crippled economies.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

Replies to this message:
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Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 391 of 952 (874437)
04-02-2020 9:01 AM
Reply to: Message 376 by jar
04-01-2020 12:41 PM


Re: the relief check
I just got an email that my bank needs my account number before they can accept the Federal check.

Seems totally legit. You must provide them with that information right away. This stimulus money is, after all, being generously provided by a Nigerian prince.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 376 by jar, posted 04-01-2020 12:41 PM jar has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
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Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 427 of 952 (874490)
04-03-2020 12:23 PM
Reply to: Message 410 by AZPaul3
04-02-2020 5:24 PM


Re: To Mask Or Not To Mask.
Cloth masks are not one-use items. Even the standard surgical masks we bottom-feeders of society can no longer get are put into multi-use mode these days. So how do we clean them?

My idea is to dampen the mask, not drench it but just dab it, with a clean sheet of paper towel wet with ethanol then seal it in one of those zip-like baggies and let it fumigate for a day or two. Would this work?

I know ethanol in the guise of rubbing alcohol is as scarce as surgical masks and Lysol-like sprays in your local grocery/pharmacy store but for those who don’t know Everclear 190 proof grain alcohol (95% ethanol) is still available, at least in Arizona, in your local liquor store for about $25 a fifth (750 ml).

Most manufactured masks are one time use.... You wear it and then basically have to dispose of it. My wife does her tech job from home during the day and learned to sew in the last few days to work on masks at night. She has been making multiple clothed masks sewn from a template with an insertable pocket or pouch. We bought air filters used for home air filters. The grade of filtration is said to be designed to protect against bacteria and viruses, among other things. So we cut the air filter and insert it in to the pocket.

I also bought clear, plastic eye protection since the ocular cavity is an excellent transmission site that people seem to forget about. After use when you have to be exposed the glasses can be sanitized. We always wear gloves whenever having to open doors or whatever. The filter for the mask can be disposed of but the cloth can be washed using hot water and reused multiple times. The only problem we have currently is how to find the nose piece to mold to the shape of the bridge of your nose. We're still trying to figure out what material to use for that. Some kind of pliable, low grade metal.... Any suggestions would be great.

Unfortunately the nature of my job forces me to interact with the public and my department has inadequate measures to protect its employees. I can't self-quarantine so I have to adapt and become creative.

The cases are relatively low in my area when compared to other cities of comparable size. But just to give some scope to the spread of the virus, Travis County had 209 cases yesterday. As of today, we now have 351 confirmed cases. Extrapolating and taking into consideration the incubation period, you can basically surmise that at least 100 more have it right now and are not yet symptomatic, maybe even me. They will then spread that 300 more and so on...

I don't know how well our protective measures will be, but the whole world is woefully underprepared... Except maybe Taiwan which actually learned a valuable lesson during SARS and has prepared its society in advance.

Anyway, I figure my current measures are better than nothing. I hope maybe this gives you guys some ideas for the times when you have to be out in public.

Stay safe, EvC, and good luck.

Edited by Hyroglyphx, : No reason given.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 410 by AZPaul3, posted 04-02-2020 5:24 PM AZPaul3 has responded

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Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 443 of 952 (874518)
04-04-2020 5:46 PM
Reply to: Message 439 by Percy
04-04-2020 10:46 AM


Re: The Latest US Coronavirus Graph
By the way, if you're wondering if Jared Kushner's declaration that the states don't really need all those ventilators, the vast majority of people who die will do so while connected to a ventilator. Look at those numbers and tell me the states don't need tens and tens of thousands of ventilators.

There should be bunkers situated around the country with emergency supplies of medical equipment, among other things, that are sealed, catalogued by expiration date, and used in a constant circulation and resupplied. That we haven't already had stockpiles of medical supplies is just mind-boggling to me. You know, the US is militarily very good at taking extreme precautions by thinking of different war scenarios and stockpiling necessary equipment. It seems they totally dropped the ball when it comes to pandemics or other major catastrophes (like a massive earthquake that cripples the entire West Coast). And you know, its not like they weren't aware of the potential. For decades they made plans for a biological attack. But this is proof that they are woefully and hopelessly inadequate. Our enemies are taking notes right now.

Furthermore, the dependence and reliance on the Chinese to make our goods just highlights that anytime they can stop the supply chain necessary to manufacture even American-made things. Apple, Tesla, IBM, you name it, all have parts and components that are exclusively made in China. There are drugs, that even the military relies on, that are manufactured in China. This cannot continue. We are talking about a threat to National Security with this kind of reliance. Its great to trade with other nations and is so healthy for the world economy to do so, but an over-reliance is death.

It's important to remember why I'm doing this. A while back Faith declared that no one knows what's gong to happen, that it's all just hypothetical speculation trying to make Trump bad.

Trump inherited this problem although his actions, inactions, and missteps are greatly exacerbating the problem. Some of his current policies, like downplaying it and not fully implementing the Defense Production Act play a huge roll. And the fact that there are still millions of Americans who refuse to take precautions are the reason why the United States has over 300,000 known cases as of the time of my writing this. It'll be at least 20,000 more by tomorrow.

I just back from Costco. My measures were this:

- N95 mask
- Gloves and multiple supplies of them on my person
- Goggles to protect against ocular exposure
- Hand sanitizer
- After shopping shed all protective gear and most clothing into trash bags
- Sanitize the the vehicle with Clorox wipes
- Sanitize all the merchandise when you get home
- Shower well with hot water

Half of the customers seemed to get it and were making valiant attempts at protecting themselves and OTHERS. The other half are still walking around taking zero precautions and basically shitting the virus they aren't aware they have into the atmosphere and infecting 5-25 additional people who refused to take precautions. Rinse and repeat. Expect an exponential increase because of these people.

Other countries are actually enforcing the shelter-in-place with roadblocks and jail time. Drastic? Yes. Inconvenient? You bet. Necessary to flatten the curve? Absolutely.

There is a reason why the US is leading in cases.

And how in the holy fuck are passenger planes still flying? I mean if I were in charge I would shut down airspace immediately. The only exceptions would be military, State, City, UPS, USPS, FedEx and DHL.

The longer we don't collectively make better decisions, the longer the economy is going to be shut down. Do things the right way starting right now so that we can hopefully mitigate the length of this impending recession.

Edited by Hyroglyphx, : No reason given.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 439 by Percy, posted 04-04-2020 10:46 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
 Message 444 by frako, posted 04-04-2020 10:22 PM Hyroglyphx has responded

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


Message 445 of 952 (874529)
04-05-2020 9:41 AM
Reply to: Message 444 by frako
04-04-2020 10:22 PM


Re: The Latest US Coronavirus Graph
just over our western borer Italy has its hottest spot of the virus. While our number of infected grows at an average of 40 per day. Italy has exponential growth.

You also have Austria to the north and they aren't doing so hot either.

I think the greatest contribution to our low numbers is that you cant go shopping whiteout a mask, and gloves. Cause lets face it the sick and healthy need to shop for necessities. Pensioners even got their own time to shop, 8 to 10 in the morning, and i think some time in the evening.

These are sensible and compassionate measures. The elderly in this country have been totally forgotten about. There are grassroot efforts being made to help them shop so that they don't risk exposure but what is the government doing for them? Establishing certain hours and strictly enforcing it for their benefit is sensible and humane.

But we also have dicks that don't listen as evident by the 600 warnings issued by the police for not adhering to quarantine rules.

We have millions upon millions of dicks in this country and Spring Breakers that place their sex drive above common sense.

No actual fines or prison sentences that i'm aware of.

Our rules are hardly enforceable. It seems the mandatory closures for non-essential businesses is strictly enforced but for individuals, not so much. The only measures are no more than 10 people can be gathered at any one location. You can be fined for not adhering to it, but the cops are so inadequately protected that the last thing they want to do is go interact with 10 or more potentially infected people and bring it back to their families and coworkers. The jails are so inadequately protected that they are trying to limit the amount of people going to jail for low level crimes.

Basically this caught everyone with their pants down. Huge wake up call to the world. Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong seem to be the most prepared civilizations thus far, and that is because they learned from their past mistakes via SARS.

Edited by Hyroglyphx, : No reason given.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 444 by frako, posted 04-04-2020 10:22 PM frako has not yet responded

  
Hyroglyphx
Inactive Member


(1)
Message 447 of 952 (874531)
04-05-2020 9:51 AM
Reply to: Message 446 by Percy
04-05-2020 9:45 AM


Re: The Stupid Just Keeps On Coming
We need a president who understands what the scientists are saying, who helps project that message, and who sees the federal government as playing a central role in disasters.

We do not need a president who can't construct logically consistent sentences, who contradicts his own scientists, who squabbles with and insults governors, and who thinks the states run the country when things go bad but that the federal government runs the country when things go well.

I still sometimes can't believe he is actually the President of the United States of America. His stupidity is stunning.


"Reason obeys itself; and ignorance submits to whatever is dictated to it" -- Thomas Paine

This message is a reply to:
 Message 446 by Percy, posted 04-05-2020 9:45 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
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