Understanding through Discussion


Welcome! You are not logged in. [ Login ]
EvC Forum active members: 66 (9029 total)
56 online now:
AZPaul3, dwise1, jar, kjsimons, nwr, Rahvin (6 members, 50 visitors)
Newest Member: Michael MD
Post Volume: Total: 884,335 Year: 1,981/14,102 Month: 349/624 Week: 70/163 Day: 30/26 Hour: 2/2


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


(2)
Message 12 of 952 (871449)
02-03-2020 9:32 AM
Reply to: Message 8 by PaulK
02-02-2020 1:39 PM


Re: US capability to fight virus jeopardised by Trumpski
I wish I was kidding but apparently the QAnon loons are promoting “Miracle Mineral Solution” as a cure. Which is basically bleach.

For what it's worth, I saw the article you're referencing, and it was a shitty piece of half-arsed journalism. It cited two people, one of whom only mentioned MMS in a quick side connect which, in context, it was not clear whether it was supposed to be taken seriously.

And that's news? A crazy man on Twitter who believes that Hillary Clinton is dead said something crazy? As far as I can tell Q-Anon was mentioned only to use up for paragraphs explaining what it is.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by PaulK, posted 02-02-2020 1:39 PM PaulK has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 13 by PaulK, posted 02-03-2020 11:06 AM caffeine has responded

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


(1)
Message 15 of 952 (871474)
02-03-2020 4:03 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by PaulK
02-03-2020 11:06 AM


Re: US capability to fight virus jeopardised by Trumpski
Jason Sather has quite an online presence and seems to have already been an MMS booster. So, I don’t doubt his part in it.

Couldn't bring myself to dig further to find out his views on the matter. One video was depressing enough. Watching him justify how, when Trump said sane things, it was because he was just lying to appease the ignorant; and when he said something vague it was subtly implying the whackjob nonsense Sather believes in; destroyed my will to continue.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by PaulK, posted 02-03-2020 11:06 AM PaulK has not yet responded

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 65 of 952 (873684)
03-18-2020 3:29 PM
Reply to: Message 46 by Percy
03-17-2020 6:37 PM


Re: A Question About Masks
So as of now we have to wear masks to board public transportation or enter any of the shops which are still permitted to remain open. As of tomorrow it will be required to wear masks to go outdoors.

Our 'masks', however, are allowed to be anything. You can wrap a scarf round your face, as long as your nose and mouth is covered.

Obviously this is not what you'd need if you were a medical professional going into a contagious environment, but any kind of mouth covering is going to block a portion of droplets, some containing viruses. And the whole point of all these regulations is to slow transmission so as not to overwhelm health services.

Another possible reason is simply to discourage people from going outside as much, for the same reason.

I'm getting concerned about how long this state of emergency is going to go on, especially since the rules and restrictions get progressively stricter almost every day. You mentioned in an earlier thread the economic impact - this is going to be devastating for a lot of businesses, including many who employ low wage workers.

There have been some steps taken to mitigate the impact (interest and repayments have been frozen on most loans and mortgages, for example), but there are several self-employed people who have simply not earned any money for the past week. 'Self-employed', of course, includes many people who are in reality employed; but without the legal protections of a contractual wage-earner. How long can they all manage this?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 46 by Percy, posted 03-17-2020 6:37 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
 Message 66 by Diomedes, posted 03-18-2020 3:38 PM caffeine has not yet responded
 Message 71 by Faith, posted 03-18-2020 5:14 PM caffeine has not yet responded
 Message 77 by RAZD, posted 03-19-2020 12:50 PM caffeine has not yet responded

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


(1)
Message 97 of 952 (873872)
03-20-2020 6:07 PM
Reply to: Message 96 by Percy
03-20-2020 3:37 PM


Re: My Trip to the Grocery Store
Sweet heavenly Jesus. May I suggest simply ordering a grocery delivery and staying home if you're this concerned?

I'll be making another trip to the grocery store next Friday. We'll see if only three people are wearing masks.

Well, if it reassures you, it was only about ten days ago when I saw maybe one or two people wearing masks in town, at most. On Wednesday I was almost the only person out without a mask; since yesterday it's a legal requirement to cover your mouth outside.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 96 by Percy, posted 03-20-2020 3:37 PM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 98 by dwise1, posted 03-20-2020 6:53 PM caffeine has responded
 Message 99 by Faith, posted 03-20-2020 6:54 PM caffeine has acknowledged this reply
 Message 116 by Percy, posted 03-21-2020 11:21 AM caffeine has responded

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 105 of 952 (873901)
03-21-2020 5:11 AM
Reply to: Message 98 by dwise1
03-20-2020 6:53 PM


Re: My Trip to the Grocery Store
In the US, good luck finding a mask.

Either on Facebook or Youtube there was a video showing how to make a face mask by folding your underwear. And, no, I didn't watch it.

We also have a national shortage of surgical masks and respirators. We actually had a couple at home so we donated them to the pharmacy. Been sewing masks for our own use.

The rules only say you have to cover your nose and mouth, so some people are just wrapping a scarf around their face.

I'm wondering if people would still whine about burqas as much as they used to.

Edited by caffeine, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 98 by dwise1, posted 03-20-2020 6:53 PM dwise1 has not yet responded

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 123 of 952 (873948)
03-21-2020 5:59 PM
Reply to: Message 116 by Percy
03-21-2020 11:21 AM


Re: My Trip to the Grocery Store
Prophylactic measures are not just to protect oneself but also to prevent one from becoming an inadvertent vector during the early infectious stage when no symptoms or only mild symptoms are apparent.

The only responsible step would be suicide, to ensure you are not capable of functioning as a disease vector at any time in the future. I was going to suggest that you merely leave the house rigged to burn down after you'd killed yourself painlessly but, since we're adopting the standard that any non-zero risk is fundamentally unacceptable; you're going to have to stay alive until the place is substantially aflame; lest your set-up fail and you potentially leave behind a corpse and surfaces upon which you had breathed not sterilised by the flames.

Masks are very difficult to come by in the US. This is typical:

We don't have any either, this is a global issue. Much of the shortage making it harder for the professionals who need masks to get them is, of course, the result of their waste by paranoid individuals convinced they need to take extreme measures to avoid the coronaplague at all costs.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 116 by Percy, posted 03-21-2020 11:21 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


(2)
Message 138 of 952 (873984)
03-23-2020 4:42 AM
Reply to: Message 126 by Percy
03-21-2020 8:48 PM


Re: More Coronavirus Information
A mortality rate of 2%-3% is pretty high, and while 80% of those infected suffer only mild symptoms, 20% experience severe enough symptoms to spend some time on a ventilator, while around 6% will be critical and spend several weeks on a ventilator.

This is all false, you're continuing to misrepresent the figures. The numbers you're looking at are not percentages of the number of people infected. They are percentages of confirmed cases.

This is obviously only a subset of the total number infected, and it's a subset biased towards those with serious symptoms.

The total number of tests performed in the entirety of Italy is equivalent to only about 15% of the population of Milan alone. I think some of that number would represent the same individuals being tested twice, so the total number of people tested is even lower.

If the disease is as contagious as you suggest, then the number of infected must be significantly higher than the number of confirmed cases, potentially orders of magnitude higher. In which case, the percentage of those suffering severe symptoms could be orders of magnitude lower than those presented above.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 126 by Percy, posted 03-21-2020 8:48 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 147 of 952 (873996)
03-23-2020 10:47 AM
Reply to: Message 145 by Percy
03-23-2020 9:36 AM


Re: Accurate Terminology
But if the rate of severe illness is really 6% and we just haven't seen the critical period of the illness for most infected people, then if a million people are actually infected right now then the healthcare system will be overwhelmed.

South Korea have had one of the highest ratios of tests performed to population, and they are reporting a serious illness rate of about 1%.

This still means we should exercise caution. If the disease is highly contagious and nobody has any immunity due to the novelty, even 1% is a potential threat to health services. To put things in context, of 70% of the population is infected in this country, and 1% of those require hospitalisation, that's a slightly higher number than the total number of hospital beds in the country.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 145 by Percy, posted 03-23-2020 9:36 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 170 of 952 (874054)
03-24-2020 9:22 AM
Reply to: Message 169 by Percy
03-24-2020 8:06 AM


Re: You might want to consider using dilute Cl bleach
When I'm home I use soap and water. When I'm not at home, or when I have something I need to disinfect that can't be washed, I use a spray bottle of 70% isopropyl alcohol.

You talked before about masks being hard to come by. Isopropyl alcohol is also a challenge. I was actually hunting for some for hobby uses while I'm stuck in the flat, but almost everywhere is sold out.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 169 by Percy, posted 03-24-2020 8:06 AM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 172 by Percy, posted 03-24-2020 11:03 AM caffeine has not yet responded

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 224 of 952 (874129)
03-25-2020 2:57 PM
Reply to: Message 181 by Faith
03-24-2020 1:59 PM


Re: The Quinine Drugs Problematic Miracle Cure?
Whatever THAT was was certainly a bad idea, but what was it?

Is Chloroquine PHOSPHATE the same thing I've been talking about?

It is, but the ews says they drank fish tank cleaner. You can get almost pure chloroquine phosphate for fish tanks, but god knows if that's what this was. No idea on the dosage either - maybe they drank 50 times the amount you'd include as a medicine.

Moral of the story - don't drink fish tank cleaner. Idiots.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 181 by Faith, posted 03-24-2020 1:59 PM Faith has not yet responded

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


(1)
Message 230 of 952 (874136)
03-25-2020 4:02 PM
Reply to: Message 215 by Percy
03-25-2020 11:00 AM


Re: interesting article:
Kinda very, very long. I skimmed it but think I have the essence: put the hammer down now and stop all interaction that is non-essential. Implement extremely widespread testing as quickly as possible so people don't circulate in the population before they know they're infected.

It's a little over 6,000 words. You typically write more than that in a hour.

The article argues that the approach attempted until recently by countries such as Holland and the UK is doomed to cause many deaths, and may not even achieve the stated goal of herd immunity.

It further argues that given time we will be able to deal with this virus, either by finding a cure or effective treatments, or by ramping up supplies. Therefore, we need to buy time. If the virus is already spreading in a particular location, aggressive restrictions are needed to quickly bring this under control. After a few weeks; measures can be lightened and applied selectively to keep contagion below a manageable level.

The latter approach requires extensive testing and intrusive surveillance of people's lives such as is being done in Korea (intrusive surveillance is not how the article puts it, that's my interpretation).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 215 by Percy, posted 03-25-2020 11:00 AM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 231 by Percy, posted 03-25-2020 5:03 PM caffeine has not yet responded

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 363 of 952 (874401)
03-31-2020 5:07 PM
Reply to: Message 362 by Percy
03-31-2020 3:29 PM


Re: Chloroquin and Hydroxychloroquin
This fish tank cleaner was chloroquine, which Trump suggested as a possible treatment at his briefings, and also at this conference call with governors at FEMA headquarters. It's right at the beginning of this video, and everything Trump says is false. It is not approved by the FDA, it is not safe, and there have been no studies of its effectiveness against the coronovirus, not of chloroquine nor of hydroxychloroquine:

That's false, of course there have. That's why we're talking about it. At least one has been cited in this thread. There has been a frenetic pace of study of the the effectiveness of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine against the coronavirus in the last few weeks. At least 27 clinical trials have been registered in China and the US using chloroquine or hydoxychloroquine to treat coronavirus this year.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 362 by Percy, posted 03-31-2020 3:29 PM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 365 by Percy, posted 03-31-2020 9:19 PM caffeine has not yet responded

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


(2)
Message 420 of 952 (874481)
04-03-2020 8:07 AM
Reply to: Message 419 by 14174dm
04-03-2020 7:29 AM


Re: To Mask Or Not To Mask.
Would microwaving destroy virus?

Don't know, but it would likely incinerate the cotton mask.

Not sure why you're all finding the question of sterilisation so complicated. Use boiling water.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 419 by 14174dm, posted 04-03-2020 7:29 AM 14174dm has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 426 by Chiroptera, posted 04-03-2020 12:15 PM caffeine has acknowledged this reply

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


Message 429 of 952 (874493)
04-03-2020 2:26 PM


Coronavirus virulence
We had some speculation earlier in the thread on how many coronavirus infections are likely to be going unnoticed. Some clues from Iceland; who have been conducting the first large-scale randomised testing.

They haven't released detailed data, but they report that based on initial findings more than 50% of those who tested positive had no symptoms; and most of the rest had only a mild cold. There's no number put to 'most', though.


  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1800
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008


(1)
Message 457 of 952 (874562)
04-06-2020 7:54 AM


A bit of good news?
A lot of optimism from the government's info updates here in Czech Republic. The government here imposed restrictions on movement quite early in comparison with most of Europe. The number of people being hospitalised appears to have levelled off, and the proportion of tests coming back positive has significantly dropped. There have been a few sick people brought over from France, since we have spare capacity in intensive care.

The plan now is to look into gradually reducing restrictions on movement and businesses. My prediction is that more shops will be allowed to reopen after Easter weekend.


  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2018 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.0 Beta
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2021