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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8956
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


(1)
Message 68 of 952 (873703)
03-18-2020 4:31 PM


Using "Immunity"
We are often (like nearly daily) required to make quick judgements on information we may see or hear. Most of the time we won't invest much in arriving at our judgement. We simply have better things to do that invest in research.

For this, reason we can use some simple rules of thumb to make quick judgements.

One of mine is:
If "immunity" is touted in the description of some elixar, exercise or whatever you won't be wrong most of the time if you assign it to the "quackery" pile.

"Enhancing immunity" is used in advertising because it is difficult for the FDA or real doctors to charge you with fraud. It is a cloudly claim.

So when no time is available discard anything making such claims.


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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8956
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


(1)
Message 269 of 952 (874235)
03-27-2020 10:20 AM
Reply to: Message 266 by Percy
03-27-2020 9:45 AM


Silly Percy
Didn't you read where Faith says "nobody knows". You can't use that math stuff to make things up. Faith told you that you can't. Has she ever been wrong?

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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8956
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 318 of 952 (874327)
03-29-2020 10:10 AM
Reply to: Message 313 by Percy
03-29-2020 7:04 AM


Projection comparison
May I suggest you keep your original ones as well. Just to be fair and admitting to being in error. Error because of the good news that the lockdowns are working. You know, those lockdowns that Trump wants to lift.

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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8956
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 351 of 952 (874387)
03-31-2020 9:22 AM
Reply to: Message 350 by Percy
03-31-2020 9:09 AM


Linear?
The log graph is reducing in slope a bit it looks like (to the fuzzy eyeball) but is it still a nearly straight line with a positive slope.

Isn't that exactly what exponential growth looks like on a log graph?


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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8956
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 355 of 952 (874391)
03-31-2020 10:56 AM
Reply to: Message 353 by Percy
03-31-2020 10:15 AM


Re: Linear?
All true. But the behaviour is still exponential isn't it?

Or maybe I am remembering wrong and as soon as the log curve starts to slope less it means we are at the inflection point and the exponential curve is turning into the inevitable S (logistic) curve.


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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8956
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


(1)
Message 381 of 952 (874425)
04-01-2020 3:21 PM
Reply to: Message 379 by anglagard
04-01-2020 2:37 PM


Re: the relief check
Obvious fraud.

and Jar obviously knows that .

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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8956
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


(1)
Message 512 of 952 (874891)
04-11-2020 2:57 PM
Reply to: Message 511 by jar
04-11-2020 2:53 PM


Re: The Latest US Coronavirus Graph
It's clear that your problem is testing and reporting. Stop that and the covid-19 problem goes away.

Clearly that is what the crazy right sources that Faith used is trying to do. It's hard to actually stop it all but it is easier to fool folks like her into not believing the more valid answers we have. This muddling of the waters is exactly what the Russians have been doing with their misinformation campaigns around the world.

Then Faith contributes to the destruction of your society by repeating things that are obviously wrong.


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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8956
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


(1)
Message 558 of 952 (875111)
04-14-2020 9:56 AM
Reply to: Message 537 by Percy
04-13-2020 10:18 AM


Lethality maybe worse than suggested numbers
Covid-19’s death toll appears higher than official figures suggest

Since I'm not sure if everyone will be able to access this I will summarize:

There are graphs that show the daily death rate for a couple of places. These are basically slightly bumpy horizontal lines. For a town in Italy (Nembro) this overs around 1 death per day. For the region around Madrid this sits at 50 per day. For Jan and most (or all of) Feb these are flat and track the 2019 numbers.

Then in late Feb or early March the death rate attributed to covid-19 is graphed on top. This pushes the Madrid region to over 100 per day and for Nembro it peaks at over 3 per day.

Then added to the graph is the actual total deaths for those places. For the Madrid region this peaks at about 175 per day and for Nembro almost 10 per day.

The timing and shape of the actual deaths per day peaks track over the attributed to covid deaths per day very exactly.

This strongly suggests that the covid deaths are being under reported by 2 or 3 times.


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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8956
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


(1)
Message 595 of 952 (875267)
04-19-2020 6:08 PM
Reply to: Message 593 by LamarkNewAge
04-19-2020 5:30 PM


WDYS?
Did you say you'd kill 2 million people so you can more conveniently buy a phone?

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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8956
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


(1)
Message 603 of 952 (875290)
04-21-2020 10:54 AM
Reply to: Message 602 by Hyroglyphx
04-21-2020 12:10 AM


Comparisons
The US does have way more deaths than any other country but that is an unreasonable comparison. It should be done on a per capita basis.
The figures for April 20th on that basis were: (deaths per million)
San Marion 1,149 (but that is only 39 deaths so more bad stats than anything meaningful)
Belgium 503
Andora 479 (another small sample)
Spain 446
Italy 339
France 310
UK 243
Saint Martin 233 (another small sample)
Netherlands 219
Switzerland 165
Sweden 156
Ireland 139
Channel Islands 138
USA 128

So the US is not the worst it is very high on the list of larger countries though.
From here in Vancouver, I compare Canada and the US (like everyone does). We are at 45 per million or just about 1/3 of the US's. That spread will grow dramatically in the next month.

Source:Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,505,476 Cases and 172,391 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer


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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8956
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 608 of 952 (875307)
04-22-2020 12:14 AM
Reply to: Message 607 by ramoss
04-21-2020 6:00 PM


Pop density
Over a large enough area you are almost for sure correct.

There are parts of Vancouver that are very, very dense though so for a few sq miles there might be a tie.


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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8956
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 615 of 952 (875318)
04-22-2020 11:35 AM
Reply to: Message 609 by Percy
04-22-2020 9:53 AM


Re: Pop density
The area just west of downtown in Vancouver (The west end) is at a density of 61,700 per sq mile. So close.

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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8956
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 645 of 952 (875575)
04-29-2020 9:55 AM


Data
We are trying to explain some numbers. Namely the rate of infection in India. We are, without questioning it, accepting that the number is correct.

That is another explanation for the anomaly. That is, that the anomaly isn't there. The testing may be inadequate or the particular test used maybe full of false negatives.

In India the number for deaths may be even less reliable than it is in more developed countries also. And even in Europe the deaths are probably undercounted.


  
NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8956
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 656 of 952 (875648)
05-02-2020 9:40 AM
Reply to: Message 655 by LamarkNewAge
05-02-2020 1:32 AM


"Low"?
If it is 0.5 and the seasonal flu is 0.1 of infected patients then it is still terrible.
If flu really* is over 60,000 deaths in the USA then the above death rate suggests 300,000 deaths.

* I have read some stuff which suggests that flu deaths are badly estimated and may not be anywhere near 0.1.
Comparing COVID-19 Deaths to Flu Deaths Is like Comparing Apples to Oranges

As a small aside: CNN has reported an updated projection of 74,000 US deaths by August 8. I haven't seen that change this week. WTF? The current figure is 65,000 and at the current rate it'll be over the 74,000 in a week.


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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8956
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003


Message 659 of 952 (875667)
05-02-2020 8:33 PM
Reply to: Message 658 by Percy
05-02-2020 8:27 PM


Statistics
I've been using this site:
Coronavirus Update (Live): 3,480,234 Cases and 244,600 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Clicking on a country breaks that country's numbers down by smaller unit. It sorts by clicking on column headings.


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