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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
Percy
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Posts: 19635
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 226 of 360 (874131)
03-25-2020 3:05 PM


Today's Cuomo Press Conference
The problem is not yet getting better. Here's the latest US graph of number of infections as of two days ago:

I'm listening to today's Cuomo press conference about the situation in New York. I'll try to avoid repeating information provided in previous press conferences. The epicenter is New York City, about 200 miles from here.

He reported some preliminary news that is good if it holds up, that the hospitalization rate may be declining. On Sunday it was doubling every 2 days, on Monday every 3.4 days, on Tuesday every 4.7 days. It's too early to rely on this data because the average incubation period for the coronavirus is 5 days, and it seems rather soon for there to be a measurable positive effect, particularly since there has been such a huge compliance problem, particularly among young people.

Cuomo is bringing the hammer down in New York City. Congregating in parks is disallowed, as are all contact sports such as basketball. If this isn't followed parks will be closed. Some streets are being closed to vehicular traffic to make more room for pedestrians to get out.

Cuomo estimates that the maximum level of hospitalizations will occur in 21 days. He says that hospital capacity will be increased to 100,000 beds but that 140,000 are required. He believes that 140,000 people will be hospitalized simultaneously at the epidemic's apex. Since only 15% of those infected require hospitalization, doing the math says that he believes the number of infections will be north of a million people. Since the number of infected in New York is currently 30,811, Cuomo believes the number will rise by over 3000% in just three weeks. With a population of 20 million, that would mean that 5% of all of New York would be infected.

Naturally their hospital system would be far overwhelmed, even more as health workers take sick. This will affect everyone, not just coronavirus patients. A heart attack, not normally a death sentence these days, would entail longer response times and insufficient medical staff and equipment and a much higher likelihood of an adverse outcome.

Cuomo reported that yesterday in a conference call with hospital administrators he told them to increase capacity by 50%, and some 100%. The US Navy Ship Comfort has 1000 beds. All state dormitories in downstate area near New York City number 29,000, and their possible use is being explored.

They're combing the world for equipment. They have enough for present requirements, but not for further out than three weeks.

They have 4000 ventilators, federal government has supplied 4000, they've purchased 7000 more, and they're exploring splitting ventilators between two patients. They're working with federals to find more ventilators. Once the New York crisis is over the ventilators would be made available to other states. They're trying to encourage the production of more ventilators, but the need is coming up very soon, before increased production can happen, as much as major companies might want to volunteer their help.

A mental health hotline and an online capability have been set up, completely free. 6000 mental health personnel have volunteered their services.

Cuomo spoke with President Trump last night and this morning, as well as with other persons on the federal task force (Pence, Kushner, etc.) about various issues, including redeploying equipment and personnel to the next hotspot after the New York crisis is over.

The $2 trillion coronavirus assistance bill is not good for New York because its allocation is only $3.8 billion, New York City $1.3 billion, and they need well north of $15 billion.

28% of all testing nationwide has been done in New York. Testing is being done in the most dense areas. Anyone who has symptoms can get a test. Testing shows a slowing of the exponential increase in infections.

Cuomo then opened up the conference to questions, I stopped at this point, here's the video:

--Percy


Replies to this message:
 Message 228 by JonF, posted 03-25-2020 3:45 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19635
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.5


(1)
Message 227 of 360 (874132)
03-25-2020 3:08 PM
Reply to: Message 223 by RAZD
03-25-2020 2:47 PM


Re: Cuban Interferon Innoculation used against Covid-19 - where's the news?
I should have quoted what I was responding to, which was your concern that sanctions could be affecting its availability here.

--Percy


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JonF
Member
Posts: 5956
Joined: 06-23-2003
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 228 of 360 (874133)
03-25-2020 3:45 PM
Reply to: Message 226 by Percy
03-25-2020 3:05 PM


Re: Today's Cuomo Press Conference
Interesting. New York suggested its coronavirus patients may have to share ventilators, but a lung doctor says that's a 'desperate' and risky strategy

The two patients must have similar lung capacity and body size.

It's far more than just getting a Y-hose. My late wife was on a ventilator for three weeks in 2010. Ventilators aren't just dumb air pumps. They have parameters, such as the size of the tube in the throat. You'd have to fake those somehow. They measure lots of things such as backpressure and flow rate (and its time dependency) and use them as feedback in controlling the pumping. You'd have to set unusual high and low limits on those and maybe even change the parameters of the feedback loop (probably disallowed under normal circumstances).

I wouldn't be comfortable with hooking up another patient on my wife's ventilator other than some last resort.


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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JonF
Member
Posts: 5956
Joined: 06-23-2003
Member Rating: 2.3


Message 229 of 360 (874134)
03-25-2020 3:57 PM


Morgue capacity
NYC morgues near capacity, DHS briefing warns

quote:
Officials were told that morgues in the city are expected to reach capacity next week, per the briefing. A third person familiar with the situation in New York said that some of the city’s hospital morgues hit capacity over the last seven days. And a FEMA spokesperson told POLITICO that New York has asked for emergency mortuary assistance. Hawaii and North Carolina have asked for mortuary help as well, and the disaster response agency is currently reviewing the requests, according to the spokesperson.

  
caffeine
Member
Posts: 1786
From: Prague, Czech Republic
Joined: 10-22-2008
Member Rating: 3.2


(1)
Message 230 of 360 (874136)
03-25-2020 4:02 PM
Reply to: Message 215 by Percy
03-25-2020 11:00 AM


Re: interesting article:
Kinda very, very long. I skimmed it but think I have the essence: put the hammer down now and stop all interaction that is non-essential. Implement extremely widespread testing as quickly as possible so people don't circulate in the population before they know they're infected.

It's a little over 6,000 words. You typically write more than that in a hour.

The article argues that the approach attempted until recently by countries such as Holland and the UK is doomed to cause many deaths, and may not even achieve the stated goal of herd immunity.

It further argues that given time we will be able to deal with this virus, either by finding a cure or effective treatments, or by ramping up supplies. Therefore, we need to buy time. If the virus is already spreading in a particular location, aggressive restrictions are needed to quickly bring this under control. After a few weeks; measures can be lightened and applied selectively to keep contagion below a manageable level.

The latter approach requires extensive testing and intrusive surveillance of people's lives such as is being done in Korea (intrusive surveillance is not how the article puts it, that's my interpretation).


This message is a reply to:
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Percy
Member
Posts: 19635
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 231 of 360 (874137)
03-25-2020 5:03 PM
Reply to: Message 230 by caffeine
03-25-2020 4:02 PM


Re: interesting article:
caffeine writes:

It's a little over 6,000 words. You typically write more than that in a hour.

100 words/minute? 8 characters/second? Wow I'm good!

Thanks for the summary.

--Percy


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Tangle
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Posts: 7439
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 232 of 360 (874138)
03-25-2020 5:19 PM
Reply to: Message 231 by Percy
03-25-2020 5:03 PM


Re: interesting article:
My daughter has it.

She was in the front line as a teacher looking after the children of critical workers, so it was as near inevitable as it gets but it's still a shock and a worry. 7 days now to wait.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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Percy
Member
Posts: 19635
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.5


(1)
Message 233 of 360 (874139)
03-25-2020 5:26 PM
Reply to: Message 232 by Tangle
03-25-2020 5:19 PM


Re: interesting article:
Tangle writes:

My daughter has it.

She was in the front line as a teacher looking after the children of critical workers, so it was as near inevitable as it gets but it's still a shock and a worry. 7 days now to wait.

I was wondering how long it would be before we heard a report like this. I'm so sorry and wish your daughter all the best. What is the wait for?

--Percy


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Replies to this message:
 Message 235 by PaulK, posted 03-25-2020 5:46 PM Percy has responded

  
jar
Member
Posts: 32355
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.0


(3)
Message 234 of 360 (874140)
03-25-2020 5:28 PM
Reply to: Message 232 by Tangle
03-25-2020 5:19 PM


Take care of her
Take care of her, she's one of the heros.

My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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PaulK
Member
Posts: 16052
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.1


Message 235 of 360 (874141)
03-25-2020 5:46 PM
Reply to: Message 233 by Percy
03-25-2020 5:26 PM


Re: interesting article:
quote:
What is the wait for?

7 days is the self-isolation period for people showing symptoms. 14 days for anyone living with them - if they don’t get sick.

Two people at work have it. We were nearly all working from home anyway, but the office is closed and everyone has been warned to be extra careful in case they were infected.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 233 by Percy, posted 03-25-2020 5:26 PM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
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vimesey
Member
Posts: 1071
From: Birmingham, England
Joined: 09-21-2011
Member Rating: 3.9


(1)
Message 236 of 360 (874142)
03-25-2020 6:33 PM
Reply to: Message 232 by Tangle
03-25-2020 5:19 PM


Re: interesting article:
Good luck mate. The odds are good.

Could there be any greater conceit, than for someone to believe that the universe has to be simple enough for them to be able to understand it ?

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AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 4854
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.8


(1)
Message 237 of 360 (874145)
03-25-2020 7:19 PM
Reply to: Message 232 by Tangle
03-25-2020 5:19 PM


Re: interesting article:
I hope she was strong and healthy going in. That would be the best scenario.

Remember ninja proteins? Give her a lot from all of us.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 232 by Tangle, posted 03-25-2020 5:19 PM Tangle has not yet responded

  
Faith
Member
Posts: 35110
From: Nevada, USA
Joined: 10-06-2001
Member Rating: 1.1


(1)
Message 238 of 360 (874148)
03-25-2020 7:29 PM
Reply to: Message 232 by Tangle
03-25-2020 5:19 PM


Re: interesting article:
I wish your daughter a mild case and if she's young and healthy she should get through it just fine.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 232 by Tangle, posted 03-25-2020 5:19 PM Tangle has not yet responded

  
ramoss
Member
Posts: 3133
Joined: 08-11-2004


Message 239 of 360 (874157)
03-25-2020 8:39 PM
Reply to: Message 173 by jar
03-24-2020 11:03 AM


Re: Trump Versus the Facts
He's willing to sacrifice you for his 401K

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ramoss
Member
Posts: 3133
Joined: 08-11-2004


(1)
Message 240 of 360 (874158)
03-25-2020 8:43 PM
Reply to: Message 194 by jar
03-24-2020 6:13 PM


Re: Mario for President
I have to admit, although I am not fond of many of Cuomo's policies, he is being clear, concise, thoughtful, and empathic in this. He actually has reasons and a plan, and is not white washing things to make it look better.

He's doing a good job.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 194 by jar, posted 03-24-2020 6:13 PM jar has responded

Replies to this message:
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