Coronavirus and Pandemics

Great news. Interesting about the smell loss.

From Politico Edited by Faith, : No reason given.

Hooray again! Wish her well!

We only test 200 per 100,000 people while Italy tests 600.We need 150,000 tests a day at least.We are at 65,000 a few days ago.Abbott Labs should bring that up to 115,000 now.Results come in 10 minutes roughly After a saw of nose or throat

This information comes from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic. Here's the latest graph showing US infections rising above 160,000: Here's the latest log graph, continuing to indicate that we've entered a more linear rather than exponential period of increase in infections: Linear growth doesn't make sense to me given that only .05% of the country is infected. Saturation effects cannot be a factor at such a low penetration rate, so it can only mean our mitigation efforts, social distancing and so forth, are working.The linear growth is about 20,000 per day right now, increasing by maybe a thousand a day. This growth rate is minuscule compared to the size of the country. If these numbers are true then it means we've succeeded in flattening the curve and that the hospital system will not be overwhelmed.But I suggest viewing this new projection askance because just a week ago epidemiologists projected that infections should be up in the millions very soon, e.g., ShieldSquare Captcha, pretty much in line with my original projection. For now I'll just say I'm happily surprised and that I hope this holds up: --Percy

The log graph is reducing in slope a bit it looks like (to the fuzzy eyeball) but is it still a nearly straight line with a positive slope.Isn't that exactly what exponential growth looks like on a log graph?

Bend it like the Bay Area: Doctors see flatter curve after 2 weeks of social isolation - POLITICO:

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After 14 days the outermost period at which symptoms are believed to emerge post-infection doctors at area hospitals are now reporting fewer cases than they expected to see at this point, and officials credit the lockdown with stemming the tide of patients they feared would flood into emergency rooms.

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--Percy

I'm not sure which part of the log graph you're looking at. Here's today's log graph for reference: This part of the graph represents exponential growth, a relatively straight line upward, as close to straight as one can reasonably expect from real world data: And this part of the graph says that growth is becoming more linear because the line is bending downward from its previous straight line upward. Instead of a relatively constant upward slope the slope is constantly lessening as you trace the line from left to right: This change in character from a relatively constant slope upward to a consistently diminishing upward slope is why the numbers of my original projection were off from day one, because most of the data on which I based my projection came from before the change.--Percy

There's a professional consensus out there that we should all be wearing masks, but it is having a very difficult time emerging because of the inertia created by initial statements that the general uninfected public does not need masks. This consensus is gradually getting more and more exposure, as here: CDC considering recommending general public wear face coverings in publicI don't know why the CDC is waffling and dilly-dallying about this, but take the fact that they're considering recommending that the general public wear masks to mean that YOU SHOULD BE WEARING A MASK ANYWHERE THERE ARE PEOPLE YOU DON'T LIVE WITH, AND ESPECIALLY THE GROCERY STORE.If you have plastic gloves you should wear them also. When you get home take your clothes off and throw them in the washer, being careful to touch nothing you're not going to wipe down with alcohol later, but leave the gloves on. You should rub isopropyl alcohol all over the gloves, or wash with soap and water, before taking them off - they can now be reused, which is important since you can't buy any right now. Now take a shower.Yesterday I read a horribly misleading article in the Post or Times that said you don't have to wipe down packaging from the grocery store because virus particles only survive a few minutes on surfaces. That is hugely wrong. Coronavirus survives around 24 hours on cardboard and around 72 hours on polypropylene plastic and many metals like stainless steel. Once at home your groceries should sit untouched for three days. Before taking your gloves off sort them into three clean bags, one each for shelf goods, refrigerator and freezer, then put each bag where it needs to be for the three days.Alternatively you can dump canned goods and many plastic containers (including meat where the plastic wrapping is secure) into a sink full of soapy water.I record 60 Minutes every Sunday but almost never watch it, but last night I watched this Sunday's first segment about coronavirus. Only 15%-20% of people come down with severe cases, but what happens to those who do is tragic. I'm sure 60 Minutes is available on-line, watch Sunday's first segment. It will convince you to take every precaution possible to avoid catching this disease, and in doing so you'll also help slow the spread.I noticed that the previous Sunday's first segment was also about coronavirus, so I watched that, and then the previous Sunday's and then the one before that back to the beginning of March. It was horrifying to travel back in time and watch the increasing naivet.--Percy

All true. But the behaviour is still exponential isn't it?Or maybe I am remembering wrong and as soon as the log curve starts to slope less it means we are at the inflection point and the exponential curve is turning into the inevitable S (logistic) curve.

Here's a table showing the mortality rate and the infection rate for the countries with top ten number of infections. Here's the table sorted by mortality rate Anyone care to guess why Italy, Spain, UK, France, Iran, Belgium and China have mortality rates above 4%? Reporting differences? Shortage of ventilators? Overwhelmed hospital system?Because of the lack of sufficient testing almost everywhere, the infection rate is probably far higher than currently measured, which means the mortality rate is correspondingly lower. My guess is that the mortality rate is closer to the flu's .1%, and if 30 million become infected in the US then the number of deaths will be in the 300,000 range, higher if the shortage of ventilators and sufficient hospital care has a significant impact.One of the nurses interviewed on 60 Minutes Sunday night made clear why the novel coronavirus is so fearful. She described adult patients younger than 50 who walked in with mild symptoms but who twelve hours later were on ventilators fighting for their lives, their lungs filled with fluid. When it becomes deadly it happens very fast.Here's a sort on the same table by infection rate: You can see why experts are beginning to doubt China's numbers since they claim only a .006% infection rate. The differences among the other countries could be because of reporting, testing or how long the infection has been spreading.--Percy

AbE: I edited the first para.Over 200,000 Sign Petition Calling for End to Live Coverage of Trump's Coronavirus Briefings reports about this petition, please sign: Ending live daily coverage of Trump’s COVID-19 briefings | MoveOn . Here's the first paragraph:

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Please stop covering the President’s daily live campaign rally (thinly disguised as a coronavirus news conference). There is no need to do so. News organizations can monitor the briefings in real time and have your anchors and correspondents quickly share appropriately edited valuable, accurate parts, which will come from medical experts. That will leave the President’s insults, false braggadocio, and outright lies on the editing room floor, where they belong.

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I signed it, despite my extreme reluctance to share any kind of personal information. They requested name, email, mobile and zip, and said by signing you agree to receive their email, though you can change this later. Here's the unsubscribe link: Unsubscribe | MoveOn.org--PercyEdited by Percy, : AbE.

Speculation, as I don’t know: was the Chinese epidemic geographically confined to around Wuhan? That crazy low infection rate might have to do with much of their huge population never being exposed.
Percy - I’m signing that petition. El naranjo grande es un sinvergenza.

Assuming that the epidemic began in the US on January 20, the date of the first reported infection, then it had been about 60 days in when I made my original projection. At that point the graph was obviously in an exponential region corresponding to an approximately x^3.1 slope (x = number of days in). Now the graph is closer to a x^1.1 slope. That's so close to x¹, i.e., linear, that it's not possible to tell whether it's still exponential or not.I don't think there's enough of a baseline of recent data to know at that level of resolution how fast the infection rate is growing right now, particularly since insufficient testing leaves so many uncounted. And the slowdown might be real, or it might merely reflect our inability to test at faster rates, or it might be something else. I think all that can be said with certainty is that the numbers we have reflect a rate of increase far less exponential than it was.If we had hospital admission rates, that would be a pretty reliable indication. I saw a report from the Bay area indicating a slowing of hospital admission rates, but that information was anecdotal.--PercyEdited by Percy, : Grammar.

From the New York Times: Opinion | It’s Time to Make Your Own Face Mask - The New York Times--Percy