Why prejudge the intention of the question in this way and bite my head off like that.
Prejudging? Again, you've been here for a decade. We know exactly who you are. You must have mistaken us for people with amnesia.
Statistically the problem with the survey you're not actually doing is that your sample isn't random. And intellectually your survey is stupid (that's the technical term) because you're trying to cast doubt upon something that has already been unequivocally established nine ways from Sunday.
I hff have been using that one since March. WORLDMETERS .
The Daily Mail has an article saying 2 million would hff have to die to reach herd immunity.
The article has graphs showing death rates from comparisons to antibody tests in various counties and countries. The ironic thing is that they have death rate percentages under 0.5 percent in most places. But still a 2 million death rate for the USA.
A Lie: Trump Administration Claims About China Lab
Last week during Q&A the president claimed to have a great deal of evidence that the coronavirus came from a Wuhan lab. When asked for the evidence Trump said he couldn't reveal it. Yesterday on ABC's This Week Mike Pompeo said essentially the same thing.
It is, of course, a lie. I have no evidence that it is a lie, but this is the Trump administration, so naturally it is a lie. It's just another in an unending stream of compelling claims that the Trump Administration makes at least several times a week to dominate the news cycle and sometimes also to exert political pressure. If it gains traction in the news media they'll keep pushing it, despite the untruth, and if it doesn't then it will evaporate just like so many other claims, such as their determination a month ago to refer to it as the China virus.
I do not understand why the news media continues to exert so much effort covering the Trump administration's veils of fiction and lies. it is sufficient to say, "Trump took questions from the media today, nothing worth mentioning emerged, and in fact some of what he said was dangerously untrue, so we'll just move on to the next news item. For those interested Trump's comments can be found in full at our website."
There are positive hints in these graphs. Deaths have dropped for four straight days, and the number of cases has declined for two straight days, though it remains concerning at above 24,000 per day. Another concerning thing about the number of cases is that the pandemic is gradually moving out into the countryside where tests are not as readily available or done, so the degree of undercounting will likely increase.
The key question is how the gradual reopening will affect the contagion's progress. The answer is no mystery. In two to three weeks we will see increases in the number of cases, and within a week or two after that the number of deaths will begin to creep up. The unknown is how masks and social distancing will affect things.
A note about the six-foot social distancing guideline. Some will recall that when social distancing first became a thing that we were not wearing masks. Wearing masks makes a difference, but it's unclear how much. Obviously cloth masks greatly reduce the likelihood of large droplets, but only moderately of aerosols whose degree of danger is not established at this time.
Do you have to maintain social distancing if you're wearing a cloth mask? Until this issue has been studied I advise employing both.
What if you're wearing an N95 mask? Obviously social distancing is less necessary, but how much is unknown. Hopefully the coming weeks will bring clarity on the mask issue.
But video I've seen of hair and nail salons and tatoo parlors shows people wearing masks in close proximity to each other. This virus is highly contagious. Whether the mask or the virus wins these confrontations is unknown at this time. Stay tuned.
Concerning testing and contact tracing, the nation is still woefully behind where it needs to be for a safe reopening.
Because of the number of people not wearing masks or maintaining social distancing, and because of the lack of sufficient testing and contact tracing, I expect there will be a period of several weeks beginning around three weeks from now where I'll be making at least several "I told you so" posts.
A note about remdesivir. There are tantalizing preliminary indications that it can reduce the recovery period and provide a modest reduction in morbidity. If we find treatments that cause infections to almost always end in full and successful recoveries then the pandemic is over. This would be fantastically good news, but it isn't something we should count on.
quote:Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers. This visualization provides weekly data on excess deaths by jurisdiction of occurrence. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected.
Re: A Lie: Trump Administration Claims About China Lab
It might have, since there is a virus study lab right in Wuhan. However, the Conspiracy theorists take that from 'escaping unintentionally' in that lab to 'created and purposely released'
It also is a place where there is a wet market, so it very well could have been that too. There is evidence it was circulating around, and there is speculation that they were hiding the severity so they could stock up on PPE and medical supplies.
Trends seem promising, but it will be three to five weeks before the results of loosening begin to show in these graphs. We won't really know the impact of the May loosening until June. Again, the big question is whether masks and distancing are sufficient. We still have woefully insufficient testing and contact tracing.
This is the projection from IHME | COVID-19 Projections. It's interesting to put the 4/25 projection and today's projection on the same page:
For some reason I didn't have the courage to walk out on a limb on 4/25 and declare that projection a fantasy, but that's what I was thinking. That, and that they were modifying their projections frequently without making it clear what data was driving those changes, was why I stopped including it in my update posts.