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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
Percy
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Posts: 19788
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


(1)
Message 661 of 764 (875669)
05-02-2020 8:57 PM
Reply to: Message 632 by Big_Al35
04-28-2020 5:28 AM


Re: The Testing Issue
Big_Al35 writes:

Why prejudge the intention of the question in this way and bite my head off like that.

Prejudging? Again, you've been here for a decade. We know exactly who you are. You must have mistaken us for people with amnesia.

Statistically the problem with the survey you're not actually doing is that your sample isn't random. And intellectually your survey is stupid (that's the technical term) because you're trying to cast doubt upon something that has already been unequivocally established nine ways from Sunday.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 632 by Big_Al35, posted 04-28-2020 5:28 AM Big_Al35 has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 681 by Big_Al35, posted 05-07-2020 11:46 AM Percy has responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19788
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 662 of 764 (875670)
05-02-2020 9:00 PM
Reply to: Message 659 by NosyNed
05-02-2020 8:33 PM


Re: Statistics
NosyNed writes:

I've been using this site:
Coronavirus Update (Live): 3,481,351 Cases and 244,663 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Ooh, beautiful, I love it. Thank you!

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 659 by NosyNed, posted 05-02-2020 8:33 PM NosyNed has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 663 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-02-2020 10:13 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1689
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.5


Message 663 of 764 (875672)
05-02-2020 10:13 PM
Reply to: Message 662 by Percy
05-02-2020 9:00 PM


Re: Statistics
I hff have been using that one since March. WORLDMETERS .

NOW.

The Daily Mail has an article saying 2 million would hff have to die to reach herd immunity.

The article has graphs showing death rates from comparisons to antibody tests in various counties and countries. The ironic thing is that they have death rate percentages under 0.5 percent in most places. But still a 2 million death rate for the USA.

It is a long article.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 662 by Percy, posted 05-02-2020 9:00 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
 Message 664 by RAZD, posted 05-03-2020 2:15 AM LamarkNewAge has responded

  
RAZD
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Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 664 of 764 (875677)
05-03-2020 2:15 AM
Reply to: Message 663 by LamarkNewAge
05-02-2020 10:13 PM


Re: Statistics
I'm having trouble with this:

The Daily Mail has an article saying 2 million would hff have to die to reach herd immunity.

Wouldn't that be the same as an uninfected population that was originally 2 million fewer people?

How does dying help anyone (unless it's Trumpy)?

What you need are people with immunity, the more you have the less likely the person you meet is a carrier.

Yes?

Enjoy


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This message is a reply to:
 Message 663 by LamarkNewAge, posted 05-02-2020 10:13 PM LamarkNewAge has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 665 by vimesey, posted 05-03-2020 5:02 AM RAZD has acknowledged this reply
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vimesey
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Posts: 1094
From: Birmingham, England
Joined: 09-21-2011
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 665 of 764 (875678)
05-03-2020 5:02 AM
Reply to: Message 664 by RAZD
05-03-2020 2:15 AM


Re: Statistics
And the Daily Mail is not entirely renowned for its rigorous pursuit of accuracy and impartial expertise.

Could there be any greater conceit, than for someone to believe that the universe has to be simple enough for them to be able to understand it ?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 664 by RAZD, posted 05-03-2020 2:15 AM RAZD has acknowledged this reply

  
LamarkNewAge
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Posts: 1689
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.5


Message 666 of 764 (875682)
05-03-2020 11:26 AM
Reply to: Message 664 by RAZD
05-03-2020 2:15 AM


Re: Statistics
There was a long article with references to a doctor and his analysis.

I will find it later.

It looked at the lower death rates based on antibody tests.The Netherlands has a higher death rate than anybody with 0.63 of the infected passing away.

All other antibody tested areas are much lower.

But the study says that 2 million Americans will still succumb to the Coronavirus if we take the Sweden's approach.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 664 by RAZD, posted 05-03-2020 2:15 AM RAZD has acknowledged this reply

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19788
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 667 of 764 (875724)
05-04-2020 8:07 AM


A Lie: Trump Administration Claims About China Lab
Last week during Q&A the president claimed to have a great deal of evidence that the coronavirus came from a Wuhan lab. When asked for the evidence Trump said he couldn't reveal it. Yesterday on ABC's This Week Mike Pompeo said essentially the same thing.

It is, of course, a lie. I have no evidence that it is a lie, but this is the Trump administration, so naturally it is a lie. It's just another in an unending stream of compelling claims that the Trump Administration makes at least several times a week to dominate the news cycle and sometimes also to exert political pressure. If it gains traction in the news media they'll keep pushing it, despite the untruth, and if it doesn't then it will evaporate just like so many other claims, such as their determination a month ago to refer to it as the China virus.

I do not understand why the news media continues to exert so much effort covering the Trump administration's veils of fiction and lies. it is sufficient to say, "Trump took questions from the media today, nothing worth mentioning emerged, and in fact some of what he said was dangerously untrue, so we'll just move on to the next news item. For those interested Trump's comments can be found in full at our website."

--Percy


Replies to this message:
 Message 668 by PaulK, posted 05-04-2020 8:11 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply
 Message 672 by ramoss, posted 05-05-2020 5:18 AM Percy has responded

  
PaulK
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Posts: 16186
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 668 of 764 (875725)
05-04-2020 8:11 AM
Reply to: Message 667 by Percy
05-04-2020 8:07 AM


Re: A Lie: Trump Administration Claims About China Lab
From what I’ve seen Pompeo immediately walked back on it as soon as his claim was challenged. Without any admission that he was reversing his position.

Edited by PaulK, : Add tweet


This message is a reply to:
 Message 667 by Percy, posted 05-04-2020 8:07 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19788
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 669 of 764 (875727)
05-04-2020 8:55 AM
Reply to: Message 660 by Percy
05-02-2020 8:42 PM


Re: The Latest Data
Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page, 67222 so far:

Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards as of yesterday:

There are positive hints in these graphs. Deaths have dropped for four straight days, and the number of cases has declined for two straight days, though it remains concerning at above 24,000 per day. Another concerning thing about the number of cases is that the pandemic is gradually moving out into the countryside where tests are not as readily available or done, so the degree of undercounting will likely increase.

The key question is how the gradual reopening will affect the contagion's progress. The answer is no mystery. In two to three weeks we will see increases in the number of cases, and within a week or two after that the number of deaths will begin to creep up. The unknown is how masks and social distancing will affect things.

A note about the six-foot social distancing guideline. Some will recall that when social distancing first became a thing that we were not wearing masks. Wearing masks makes a difference, but it's unclear how much. Obviously cloth masks greatly reduce the likelihood of large droplets, but only moderately of aerosols whose degree of danger is not established at this time.

Do you have to maintain social distancing if you're wearing a cloth mask? Until this issue has been studied I advise employing both.

What if you're wearing an N95 mask? Obviously social distancing is less necessary, but how much is unknown. Hopefully the coming weeks will bring clarity on the mask issue.

But video I've seen of hair and nail salons and tatoo parlors shows people wearing masks in close proximity to each other. This virus is highly contagious. Whether the mask or the virus wins these confrontations is unknown at this time. Stay tuned.

Concerning testing and contact tracing, the nation is still woefully behind where it needs to be for a safe reopening.

Because of the number of people not wearing masks or maintaining social distancing, and because of the lack of sufficient testing and contact tracing, I expect there will be a period of several weeks beginning around three weeks from now where I'll be making at least several "I told you so" posts.

A note about remdesivir. There are tantalizing preliminary indications that it can reduce the recovery period and provide a modest reduction in morbidity. If we find treatments that cause infections to almost always end in full and successful recoveries then the pandemic is over. This would be fantastically good news, but it isn't something we should count on.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 660 by Percy, posted 05-02-2020 8:42 PM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 671 by kjsimons, posted 05-04-2020 9:48 PM Percy has responded
 Message 674 by Percy, posted 05-05-2020 12:53 PM Percy has responded

  
JonF
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Posts: 6073
Joined: 06-23-2003
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 670 of 764 (875728)
05-04-2020 10:48 AM


New CDC tool
Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19

quote:
Estimates of excess deaths can provide information about the burden of mortality potentially related to COVID-19, beyond the number of deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19. Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers. This visualization provides weekly data on excess deaths by jurisdiction of occurrence. Counts of deaths in more recent weeks are compared with historical trends to determine whether the number of deaths is significantly higher than expected.

  
kjsimons
Member
Posts: 684
From: Orlando,FL
Joined: 06-17-2003


Message 671 of 764 (875741)
05-04-2020 9:48 PM
Reply to: Message 669 by Percy
05-04-2020 8:55 AM


Re: The Latest Data
Percy, there was an update to the model this afternoon, now they are predicting 134,475 COVID-19 deaths by August 4th.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 669 by Percy, posted 05-04-2020 8:55 AM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 675 by Percy, posted 05-05-2020 1:09 PM kjsimons has not yet responded

  
ramoss
Member
Posts: 3139
Joined: 08-11-2004


Message 672 of 764 (875750)
05-05-2020 5:18 AM
Reply to: Message 667 by Percy
05-04-2020 8:07 AM


Re: A Lie: Trump Administration Claims About China Lab
It might have, since there is a virus study lab right in Wuhan. However, the Conspiracy theorists take that from 'escaping unintentionally' in that lab to 'created and purposely released'

It also is a place where there is a wet market, so it very well could have been that too. There is evidence it was circulating around, and there is speculation that they were hiding the severity so they could stock up on PPE and medical supplies.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 667 by Percy, posted 05-04-2020 8:07 AM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 673 by Percy, posted 05-05-2020 12:47 PM ramoss has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19788
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 673 of 764 (875758)
05-05-2020 12:47 PM
Reply to: Message 672 by ramoss
05-05-2020 5:18 AM


Re: A Lie: Trump Administration Claims About China Lab
Here are my assessments for each of these:

ClaimAssessment
Coronavirus developed in labVery, very likely untrue
Coronavirus evolved naturallyVery likely true
Coronavirus escaped from research labPossible
Coronavirus escaped from wet marketPossible
Coronavirus hidden to stockpile PPEPossible

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 672 by ramoss, posted 05-05-2020 5:18 AM ramoss has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19788
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 674 of 764 (875761)
05-05-2020 12:53 PM
Reply to: Message 669 by Percy
05-04-2020 8:55 AM


Re: The Latest Data
Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page, 69378 so far:

Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards as of yesterday:

Trends seem promising, but it will be three to five weeks before the results of loosening begin to show in these graphs. We won't really know the impact of the May loosening until June. Again, the big question is whether masks and distancing are sufficient. We still have woefully insufficient testing and contact tracing.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 669 by Percy, posted 05-04-2020 8:55 AM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 677 by Percy, posted 05-06-2020 12:13 PM Percy has responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19788
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 675 of 764 (875762)
05-05-2020 1:09 PM
Reply to: Message 671 by kjsimons
05-04-2020 9:48 PM


Re: The Latest Data
kjsimons writes:

Percy, there was an update to the model this afternoon, now they are predicting 134,475 COVID-19 deaths by August 4th.

This is the projection from IHME | COVID-19 Projections. It's interesting to put the 4/25 projection and today's projection on the same page:

For some reason I didn't have the courage to walk out on a limb on 4/25 and declare that projection a fantasy, but that's what I was thinking. That, and that they were modifying their projections frequently without making it clear what data was driving those changes, was why I stopped including it in my update posts.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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