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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
Coragyps
Member
Posts: 5495
From: Snyder, Texas, USA
Joined: 11-12-2002
Member Rating: 3.4


(2)
Message 676 of 764 (875767)
05-05-2020 1:58 PM
Reply to: Message 675 by Percy
05-05-2020 1:09 PM


Re: The Latest Data
Well, we Texans have it all completely under control. Four days running of record highs in new cases, so -naturally - we’re back to full open, and the beaches are jammed with people.

Unfriggenbelievable.


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Percy
Member
Posts: 19788
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 677 of 764 (875794)
05-06-2020 12:13 PM
Reply to: Message 674 by Percy
05-05-2020 12:53 PM


Re: The Latest Data
Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page, 71,078 so far:

The recent tick upward must be an artifact of reporting latency. The prior days were probably somewhat higher, and yesterday was probably much lower. Also, one article I read today said that the timeliness of reporting of deaths by the states varies widely, in some cases taking weeks.

Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards as of yesterday:

Scored a two liter bottle of 62% hand sanitizer today. Don't hoard, but during May it might be a good idea to gradually stock up on some supplies because it's possible there could be an uptick in June.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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jar
Member
Posts: 32506
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 1.9


Message 678 of 764 (875800)
05-06-2020 3:59 PM
Reply to: Message 676 by Coragyps
05-05-2020 1:58 PM


back to normal
I had to take my car to get inspected to renew tags and it's annual oil change (over 7000 miles on it now and it's only 5 years old). Several of the staff were not wearing masks although the doors were posted that to enter you had to wear a mask and on the road almost no one was actually wearing masks.

Roads were as busy as before the lockdown and most stores and restaurants open with cars in the parking lots.


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

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Percy
Member
Posts: 19788
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 679 of 764 (875807)
05-06-2020 5:30 PM


A Familiar Name Resurfaces
The woman this article is about was the wife of the late Stephen Jay Gould: A N.Y. woman went $600,000 in debt to buy protective equipment for workers — and hospitals keep turning her down

--Percy


  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19788
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 680 of 764 (875818)
05-07-2020 7:36 AM
Reply to: Message 677 by Percy
05-06-2020 12:13 PM


Re: The Latest Data
Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page, 73.243 so far. The large upticks the last two days must obviously be reporting lag artifacts. The death rates the last two days were probably lower and the previous few days likely higher:

Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards as of yesterday. There's an obvious weekly 7-day pattern. Likely tomorrow's number will be in the 26-28K range, and the day after in the 28-30K range:

I read an opinion piece yesterday (Don’t Be Fooled by America’s Flattening Curve) that pointed out that if you remove urban centers from the coronavirus graphs of cases and deaths that the trendline is still strongly upward. Just as predicted in this space, the virus is moving out of the cities and into the countryside where urgent care facilities, emergency rooms and hospitals are much further apart, sometimes hours distant.

It is stunning how Republicans are largely blind to the indelible image of incompetence the Trump administration is projecting in the face of this pandemic. We have to concede Trump's incredible effectiveness at convincing his base that he's doing a great job.

With the gradual reopening taking place I'm going to continue to remind people that unless a couple factors come to the fore that it is going to get much worse before it gets better. To avoid that these things need to be true, and there's no guarantee that they are:

  • Cloth masks are effective at preventing the spread of coronavirus.
  • The vast majority of people will wear masks.

Also effective at avoiding the relapse would be very widespread testing and intensive contact tracing, but the Trump administration is providing very little in these areas.

In images and videos I see many people wearing their masks fairly low on their faces creating significant spaces between the mask and the side of their nose. To be effective masks must be pulled up closer to the eyes where the spaces will be much smaller. Actual N95 masks have a little piece of flexible metal at the top that can be bent to precisely conform around your nose.

We'd so given up on finding masks in stores that when we were out yesterday we forgot to even look for them.

--Percy

Edited by Percy, : Provide link to an article.


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Big_Al35
Member
Posts: 389
Joined: 06-02-2010


Message 681 of 764 (875825)
05-07-2020 11:46 AM
Reply to: Message 661 by Percy
05-02-2020 8:57 PM


Re: The Testing Issue
Percy writes:

you're trying to cast doubt upon something that has already been unequivocally established nine ways from Sunday

"The lady doth protest too much, methinks" - I never questioned the veracity of the mainstream claims about the coronavirus. We know the coronavirus is real and causes about 20% of cases of the common cold. This particular strain of course is less well established. Your repeated defence though of something that never was under attack makes me think that perhaps you are beginning to doubt your own narrative?


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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8930
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 682 of 764 (875826)
05-07-2020 12:05 PM
Reply to: Message 680 by Percy
05-07-2020 7:36 AM


What's your bet?
Anyone want to place a bet on when the US deaths/million pop will pass Spain's?

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Coragyps
Member
Posts: 5495
From: Snyder, Texas, USA
Joined: 11-12-2002
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 683 of 764 (875827)
05-07-2020 1:06 PM
Reply to: Message 681 by Big_Al35
05-07-2020 11:46 AM


Re: The Testing Issue
We know that the cat family is real, too. And we know that your average tiger is a little more dangerous than your average fat American housecat. What’s the mortality for common colds due to coronavirus? As high as that for Covid-19? How prevalent is at least partial immunity to the common cold caused be a coronavirus? I don’t know that, and you don’t either, but I’ll take my chances on a common cold in preference to exposing myself to Covid-19.

Don’t be foolish. The same family does not mean the same critter.


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RAZD
Member
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 684 of 764 (875828)
05-07-2020 1:11 PM
Reply to: Message 682 by NosyNed
05-07-2020 12:05 PM


Re: What's your bet. — Mid May
Anyone want to place a bet on when the US deaths/million pop will pass Spain's?

I’ll jump in here and say mid-May ... because of all the stupid reopenings going on right now.

... (Corona) deaths/million pop ...

This a better metric than just (Corona) deaths, especially for comparing countries .. and states. Gives one a better grasp on the threat.

This BS about opening (haircut for Xsake) and needing to work to pay bills is simple to remedy —

  • Take the “relief” money they’re giving out and just give everyone the same amount.
  • The out of work workers can pay rent, food, utilities, and stayed home.
  • The landlord can pay his debts as normal
  • The essential worker employers can pay “hazard” pay to attract workers willing to take the risk with the money normally spent for wages.
  • Banks get the mortgages and loans paid as normal.
  • The money percolates up through the economy, just as it normally does.

Who knows, people might find that this works better than all the “socialist” programs. Combined.

Enjoy


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel•American•Zen•Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

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NosyNed
Member
Posts: 8930
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 685 of 764 (875848)
05-08-2020 1:04 AM
Reply to: Message 684 by RAZD
05-07-2020 1:11 PM


Re: What's your bet. — Mid May
Currently:
USA Spain
population 328.2 46.9
deaths per mil 232 558
deaths per day 2,129 213

So if everything (deaths perday stays the same) the US won't pass spain for 6 months
but as you say, the us deaths will trend up while spains goes down
so it can be much faster than that
but it can't trend up and down fast enough to make mid may

I'd guess Aug 1 at the earliest


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Percy
Member
Posts: 19788
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 686 of 764 (875850)
05-08-2020 9:15 AM
Reply to: Message 681 by Big_Al35
05-07-2020 11:46 AM


Re: The Testing Issue
Big_Al35 writes:

I never questioned the veracity of the mainstream claims about the coronavirus.

Great, but then what was the point of your question? Here it is from Message 617:

Big_Al35 in Message 617 writes:

I would be interested to know how many people you personally know who have the virus Percy?

--Percy


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RAZD
Member
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 687 of 764 (875853)
05-08-2020 9:30 AM
Reply to: Message 685 by NosyNed
05-08-2020 1:04 AM


Re: What's your bet. — Mid May
So if everything (deaths perday stays the same) the US won't pass spain for 6 months
but as you say, the us deaths will trend up while spains goes down
so it can be much faster than that
but it can't trend up and down fast enough to make mid may

We will also be seeing new hotspots in places not yet affected, in addition to states like Georgia, Texas and Florida that are ignoring or discarding protective measures, along with new testing in current areas. I am pessimistic about Trump's ability to deal with any increase, as he'll disregard it while he concentrates on how he wants to recover the economy for his election.

I'd guess Aug 1 at the earliest

We'll see

Any other takers?

Enjoy


we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
Rebel•American•Zen•Deist
... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ...
to share.


Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)

This message is a reply to:
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Percy
Member
Posts: 19788
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 688 of 764 (875855)
05-08-2020 9:48 AM
Reply to: Message 680 by Percy
05-07-2020 7:36 AM


Re: The Latest Data
Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page, 75,254 so far. The large upticks the last three days must obviously be reporting lag artifacts. The death rates for those days were probably lower and the previous few days likely higher. Guestimating, I'd say we're averaging around 1900 deaths/day in the US over the past few weeks.

Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards as of yesterday. Concerning the weekly 7-day pattern, todays figure of 28,400 cases is very close to yesterday's projection of 26-28k. I'm still estimating that tomorrow's number will be in the 28-30K range:

Three. That's the big number from today's grocery shopping. There were only three people not wearing masks, all customers, all over 60. Think back to my March 20 report six weeks ago (Message 96) where I said, "Only three people were wearing masks, and I was one of them. I felt very self-conscious." I did not feel self-conscious today, except maybe a little because I was one of the very few with an N95 mask. It was mostly cloth masks, a few bandanas, a few surgical masks, two N95's.

I've been wearing the same N95 mask for six weeks now and it is holding up fine, but of course I only wear it once or twice a week for maybe a few hours at most. The rest of the time I'm either sheltering at home, picking up takeout once a week or so, taking walks, and playing tennis. Weather's been horrible.

AbE: Should have mentioned, at the grocery store the meat section was about half empty.

--Percy

Edited by Percy, : AbE.


This message is a reply to:
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jar
Member
Posts: 32506
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 1.9


Message 689 of 764 (875858)
05-08-2020 9:54 AM
Reply to: Message 687 by RAZD
05-08-2020 9:30 AM


Re: What's your bet. — Mid May
Only if such things are reported.

Stop testing, stop reporting, control what is released as news and the problem goes away.


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 16186
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 690 of 764 (875866)
05-08-2020 1:41 PM


Study on risk factors
Ben Goldacre reported a large scale study of NHS patients

Major risk factors include uncontrolled diabetes (be careful Phat!), asthma, being male, being of Black or Asian ethnicity.


  
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