Map of cell phone locations at and after the April 15th “Operation Gridlock” in Lansing Michigan.
quote:The people at the Committee to Protect Medicare released data which shows the protesters dispersing to smaller communities across Michigan in the following days. The map above shows that cellphones that were in Lansing on April 15 scattered across the state. (Link)
Rob Davidson, executive director of The Committee to Protect Medicare said on Lawrence O’Donnell on April 30th that they saw a rise of 50-200% in COVID19 cases at the places those cell phones ended up.
Davidson predicts that we will see more of this following the April 30th protests. “If we keep doing the same thing over and over we’re never going to get out of this.”
Yesterday Trump said, “I feel about vaccines like I feel about tests: This is going to go away without a vaccine. It’s going to go away, and we’re not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time.”
This is yet another example of Trump lying to the American people. Evidence suggests that approximately 40% of Americans will believe him. He should leave communication of information about the disease to the experts. His comments on other topics, such as the economy, are less idiotic and ignorant.
even if they get a vaccine, it will be obsolete when it hits the public. the mutation rate makes this a lethal moving target.
All virus routinely mutate, the coronavirus is no different. Scientists believe that all the mutations detected so far are inconsequential as related to vaccine sensitivity, and of course that could change. There's some info on the web, for example see COVID-19 Will Mutate — What That Means for a Vaccine.
Our experience with the covid-19 virus tells us that most cases are mild, so mild that many people have had it unawares. But many cases are more severe. These percentages are rough and likely lower because we don't have an accurate account of the number infected, but 40% will experience symptoms, 20% will be hospitalized, 10% will be in an ICU, 6% will be on ventilators, and 2% will die.
Here is the story of a woman who has had persistent covid-19 for weeks: ‘How long can a heart last like this?’. Everyone should take every precaution to avoid catching a virus that can cause an experience like this, not just for themselves but for the people they might in turn infect.
Academic research from Imperial College in London, modeling the U.S. response, estimates that up to 90 percent of COVID-19 deaths could have been prevented had the U.S. moved to shut down by March 2nd.
No one should have a cavalier or complacent attitude about catching this virus, figuring they'll just catch it, recover, and be done with it. This virus is not benign. It can do dangerous things to the body, as the Post detailed in an article yesterday (Doctors keep discovering new ways the coronavirus attacks the body). "Often it attacks the lungs, but it can also strike anywhere from the brain to the toes." It has a great capacity to cause blood clots in the extremities, which was the mechanism responsible for Broadway star Nick Cordero's loss of a leg just a few weeks ago. No one is safe from this virus.
The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 is the technical designation) has a mainstream presentation of a fever, cough and shortness of breath, but it can present itself in a variety of other ways. This variety derives from its ability to wreak havoc on blood vessels, leading to clots that range in size and can travel all over, including the brain, lungs and kidneys (in fact, the kidneys are a common target as the virus attacks the waste filtering cells). Whenever the clots lodge in a critical organ there could be catastrophic consequences, and which organ will catch a clot cannot be predicted.
The variety also derives from the body's own immune response, which can go into overdrive and begin attacking the very body it was intended to protect. Which part of the body will the immune system attack? Unpredictable.
You do not want to catch this virus. The most likely outcome is that you'll be fine, but the chances that you won't be are far from negligible.
Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards as of yesterday. I see a clear downward trend in this graph too:
Since the situation nationally regarding testing and contact tracing have not changed since the country was shut down, the gradual reopening that began around the beginning of May should soon begin to reflect itself in these charts, in another week or two for the number of cases, and in another two to five weeks for the number of deaths.
There's been a great deal of recent criticism of the projection models. For instance, projections for the next few weeks depend a great deal upon how much people trust that it's safe out there. The projections can vary widely from reality because of the unpredictability of people's behavior. If people fill malls and bars and restaurants then strong upward trends in cases and deaths will resume. But if people don't trust that it's safe out there and approach public gatherings cautiously then the uptick could be small. If people are completely untrustful that it's safe then the trend could continue downward.
There are two factors that cause me to believe the upward trend will resume. One is the Trump administration's encouragement of loosening and reopening. The other is many people's desire to return to work for financial reasons.