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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
JonF
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Posts: 6073
Joined: 06-23-2003
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 736 of 764 (876387)
05-18-2020 3:00 PM


We used to be a player
Coalition of 116 countries back Australia's push for independent coronavirus inquiry

quote:
More than 110 countries have backed Australia's push for an independent coronavirus inquiry which has caused a damaging rift with China.

The African Group's 54 member states will co-sponsor the motion, joining 62 other countries including Russia, Indonesia, India, Japan, Britain and Canada.

The European Union's 27 members are all on board, along with Brazil, South Korea, Mexico, Turkey and New Zealand.



Not the US, of course. They have no interest in wretched banana republics.

Replies to this message:
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PaulK
Member
Posts: 16186
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 2.0


Message 737 of 764 (876420)
05-19-2020 11:28 AM


Shenanigans in Florida
Florida Today

Florida’s dashboard, providing information on COVID-19 cases was singled out for praise - by Dr Deborah Birx. Now, the project has been taken away from the team that created it, the dashboard has been inaccessible for long periods and when it is up the datasheets are increasingly hard to obtain.

And nobody outside the Florida DoH knows why, though there are plenty of suspicions.

Tampa Bay Times has more.

Edited by PaulK, : Added 2nd link


  
Percy
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Posts: 19788
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


(1)
Message 738 of 764 (876548)
05-22-2020 8:28 AM


Why Covid-19 is Worse Than the Flu
Here's a Washington Post video that explains why covid-19 is so much worse than the flu: More evidence emerges on why covid-19 is so much worse than the flu. It has to be a video because it is mostly visual animations and microscope videos.

You do not want to catch this virus.

--Percy

Edited by Percy, : Add title.


  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19788
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 739 of 764 (876550)
05-22-2020 8:53 AM


More Information of How the Coronavirus Spreads
Virus ‘does not spread easily’ from surfaces or animals, revised CDC website states explains that the CDC has found that the primary mode of transmission of the novel cornoavirus is through respiration and not through contact with potentially virus laden surfaces such as mail or delivered packages. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) - Transmission is the CDC webpage.

As evidence the WAPO article cites the high number of infections found in nursing homes and in meat packing plants where people are packed closely together in enclosed places. This is strong anecdotal evidence, but it is not a peer reviewed scientific study, and that bothers me. Nowhere does the article cite any new scientific studies. It is based on perception of what anecdotal experience so far tells us.

The CDC webpage states that a safe distance is 6 feet and still doesn't distinguish between whether masks are being worn or not. In fact, strangely, it doesn't mention masks at all. In the absence of studies 6 feet seems prudent, but with masks it must be less and we don't yet know how much less.

Other CDC reports still state that the virus survives up to 24-hours on cardboard and up to 72-hours on plastic, for instance Coronavirus can stay infectious for days on surfaces. But it’s still okay to check your mail.

Out of an abundance of caution we will be maintaining our current practices. Mail and groceries will still be quarantined. Any time a potential warren of coronavirus is entered like a grocery store or Home Depot, clothes will be washed and bodies will be showered.

--Percy


Replies to this message:
 Message 741 by Taq, posted 05-22-2020 1:34 PM Percy has responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19788
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 740 of 764 (876556)
05-22-2020 12:45 PM


Hydroxychloriquine Linked to Increased Risk of Death
The headline Antimalarial drug touted by Trump is linked to increased risk of death in virus patients says it all.

Everyone hopes for a miracle cure for covid-19, and it can be tempting to listen to promising reports from non-medical sources, but this kind of evidence, the kind offered by Trump that begins with "People are saying..." and "A lot of people are telling me..." and "I heard...," is the worst kind of evidence.

There is an incredible amount of naiveté out there about what is the proper way to make sure information is reliable. Most people get through most aspects of life by listening to what their friends and neighbors say. But when it comes to matters of life and death, particularly in medicine, this is usually a very bad approach.

Even if your close friend and neighbor gives you very clear and specific information like, "Did you hear about the new study? It found that lycipatrinedilaxilate administered in 10 mg doses twice daily minimizes the chances of catching coronavirus by 62%, and that if you did catch the virus that it reduces the mortality rate by 84%." How can you doubt that?

But you can and should doubt that. Unless you hear this from a doctor or read it in some reliable news outlet (AP, the New York Times, The Chicago Tribune, The Boston Globe, the Washington Post, etc.) and it provides links to the studies and you read the study's conclusions, don't believe it. Once you confirm it you should only seek out medications from a doctor. A real doctor, not one Trump has compromised.

This study is not conclusive because it is not the gold standard of a double blind study. It is a retrospective study that examined coronavirus patient outcomes. But it was a large study, and it would be extremely unusual for the eventual double blind studies to contradict it. For now this drug should be approached with extreme caution. Here's a summary of the study results:

quote:
For those given hydroxychloroquine, there was a 34 percent increase in risk of mortality and a 137 percent increased risk of a serious heart arrhythmias. For those receiving hydroxychloroquine and an antibiotic — the cocktail endorsed by Trump — there was a 45 percent increased risk of death and a 411 percent increased risk of serious heart arrhythmias.

Those given chloroquine had a 37 percent increased risk of death and a 256 percent increased risk of serious heart arrhythmias. For those taking chloroquine and an antibiotic, there was a 37 percent increased risk of death and a 301 percent increased risk of serious heart arrhythmias.


That's very damning. I don't believe Trump is taking hydroxycholorquine. I think he's just using the claim that he is to do what he always does, double down on an absurd claim until people give up while not caring about the effects on Americans of his dangerous advice. But if he is taking it, and if his doctors have any influence at all, he should stop taking it immediately.

Trump's incredibly poor judgment on things medical is just a microcosm of his poor judgment on almost everything. His gifts lie in the area of lying with a straight face, persuasion, browbeating and pressure tactics, not in anything related to truth and accuracy.

--Percy


  
Taq
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Posts: 8270
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 741 of 764 (876557)
05-22-2020 1:34 PM
Reply to: Message 739 by Percy
05-22-2020 8:53 AM


Re: More Information of How the Coronavirus Spreads
Percy writes:

Virus ‘does not spread easily’ from surfaces or animals, revised CDC website states explains that the CDC has found that the primary mode of transmission of the novel cornoavirus is through respiration and not through contact with potentially virus laden surfaces such as mail or delivered packages. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) - Transmission is the CDC webpage.

Not speaking as an expert, but someone with a bit of experience in virology . . .

I share your misgivings about the lack of citations and references, but it does make a lot of sense with what we do know about the virus. The S protein on the surface of the virus binds to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) found on alveolar cells deep in the lung, and that's how it gains a foothold. Virus on your hands and smeared on your face are not easily transported deep into your lungs. It can happen, but is much less likely than inhaling an airborne aerosol containing viral particles.

However, you are still justified in taking all the precautions you deem necessary. You will never know if you overdid it, but you may find out if you underdid it. Stay safe!!


This message is a reply to:
 Message 739 by Percy, posted 05-22-2020 8:53 AM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
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Coragyps
Member
Posts: 5495
From: Snyder, Texas, USA
Joined: 11-12-2002
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 742 of 764 (876560)
05-22-2020 3:12 PM


We have five new cases, up from two previously, here in lovely Scurry County. And according to our public health nurse, one of our new detections had been “all over the county.”
And another worked at the (multi-county) jail here. They are going to start testing for coronavirus there now.
I’m not optimistic.

Replies to this message:
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Phat
Member
Posts: 13920
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.3


Message 743 of 764 (876562)
05-22-2020 3:47 PM
Reply to: Message 736 by JonF
05-18-2020 3:00 PM


Re: We used to be a player
JonF writes:

Not the US, of course. They have no interest in wretched banana republics.

There is a new Cold War according to Newsweek. Back in the day the Soviet Union fought us and we won that Cold War through superior technology and burying them economically. China will prove much tougher. China is a patient country and has been undermining Western dominance for years, largely because we let them and even helped them. I suspect that much of the reason we still cant get Lysol and cleaning products on the shelves is due in part to the Trade War. Some analysts believe that the US will lose this next Cold War, dubbed Cold War II by Newsweek. Historically we had an interest in Banana Republics primarily to exploit them. Capitalism does have its dark side.

“The only way I know to drive out evil from the country is by the constructive method of filling it with good.”Calvin Coolidge
"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
“As the fear of God is the beginning of wisdom, so the denial of God is the height of foolishness.”-RC Sproul, Essential Truths of the Christian Faith

- You can safely assume that you've created God in your own image when it turns out that God hates all the same people you do.
Anne Lamott
I Have Strong Arguments Which I Cant Say To You~CG

This message is a reply to:
 Message 736 by JonF, posted 05-18-2020 3:00 PM JonF has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 745 by Taq, posted 05-22-2020 5:25 PM Phat has not yet responded

  
Coragyps
Member
Posts: 5495
From: Snyder, Texas, USA
Joined: 11-12-2002
Member Rating: 3.4


Message 744 of 764 (876572)
05-22-2020 5:24 PM
Reply to: Message 742 by Coragyps
05-22-2020 3:12 PM


Typed too soon. Four additional cases now, and a bunch of tests pending.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 742 by Coragyps, posted 05-22-2020 3:12 PM Coragyps has not yet responded

  
Taq
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Posts: 8270
Joined: 03-06-2009
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 745 of 764 (876573)
05-22-2020 5:25 PM
Reply to: Message 743 by Phat
05-22-2020 3:47 PM


Re: We used to be a player
Phat writes:

Some analysts believe that the US will lose this next Cold War, dubbed Cold War II by Newsweek.

USSR lost the Cold War because their authoritarian government collapsed and had a nominally democratic government replace it. I don't see the US collapsing and reforming under communism.

If losing Cold War II means the Chinese public is richer than us, then let's hurry up and lose. 1.5 billion rich people ready to buy cheaper US goods??? YES PLEASE!!!

I strongly suspect that China will become more liberal over time as their people are exposed to the West. A country doesn't enrich itself by conquering its neighbors as in years past. Now it's economics and globalization. China has way, way more to lose in an armed conflict than they can win in peacetime.


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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jar
Member
Posts: 32506
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 1.9


Message 746 of 764 (876574)
05-22-2020 5:51 PM
Reply to: Message 745 by Taq
05-22-2020 5:25 PM


Re: We used to be a player
Taq writes:

China has way, way more to lose in an armed conflict than they can win in peacetime.

But in recent history it is and has been far more likely that it is the US that is the initiator or armed conflicts. Let's hope the US for once shows at least some discretion.


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
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NosyNed
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Posts: 8930
From: Canada
Joined: 04-04-2003
Member Rating: 3.6


Message 747 of 764 (876578)
05-23-2020 9:49 AM
Reply to: Message 734 by Percy
05-18-2020 1:00 PM


Excess Deaths
Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries

The Economist is supplying interesting data broken down in a lot of detail. I think you might find this interesting.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 734 by Percy, posted 05-18-2020 1:00 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 7618
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 2.8


(1)
Message 748 of 764 (876579)
05-23-2020 10:31 AM


The Lancet (UK's top medical journal) tested chloroquinine and found increased death rate against a control group and no beneficial effects. n=96,032.

quote:
We were unable to confirm a benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, when used alone or with a macrolide, on in-hospital outcomes for COVID-19. Each of these drug regimens was associated with decreased in-hospital survival and an increased frequency of ventricular arrhythmias when used for treatment of COVID-19.

https://www.thelancet.com/...ls/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext

We can only hope Trump doesn't read it; we might get lucky.


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


  
LamarkNewAge
Member
Posts: 1689
Joined: 12-22-2015
Member Rating: 1.5


Message 749 of 764 (876582)
05-23-2020 11:06 AM


Good news published Friday in the Lancet. A vaccine from CanSino Biologics.
An early trial on 108 people showed an immune response after 28 days.

Now a double blind, controlled trial is starting.

The Chinese company says it will take 6 months to see if the side effects are bad, but they are only minor to mild so far.

The company says the specific drug formulation is not final, and notes that the tests are going to show which direction the development takes in the perfection of a working formula.

I found this today on CTV News

Promising Results For Potential Covid 19 Vaccine To Be Tested On Canadians.

It links to the Lancet paper that published yesterday.

Sorry, but I don't know how to get full url visible on my phone. Can't link.


  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19788
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.4


Message 750 of 764 (876608)
05-23-2020 8:00 PM
Reply to: Message 734 by Percy
05-18-2020 1:00 PM


Re: The Latest Data
Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page. There remains a clear downward trend:

Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards as of yesterday. There's remains a clear downward trend in this graph, too:

These graphs do not contain any firm indication either way of the impact of the recent reopenings. What we hope is that the news coverage of all the people not wearing masks is making it look like more people are going maskless than really are. And we hope that cloth masks sufficiently curtail spread of the virus, enough to get R0 below 1. If these two things are true then the reopening of the country will be able to continue without interruption and the recovery can really begin.

In today's grocery shopping report, everyone in the supermarket was wearing a mask. Then I went to Walmart. There were more people without masks than with, not counting the help who are required to wear masks.

I saw more than several people who did not have their masks high enough on their nose, creating large gaps on either side.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 734 by Percy, posted 05-18-2020 1:00 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
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