Coronavirus and Pandemics

Also, check out this report. Apparently, I'm not the only one who finds the CDC numbers to be pig detergent.

Article titled Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For Coronavirus Than First ThoughtJon Hamilton Edited by Admin, : Turn bare text into link.

Confirmed cases are not synonymous with symptomatic cases.See my NPR link on the Indiana governmental study which showed 11 times the actual number of people infected than the live infection numbers showed.It brought the death rate down to 0.58 percent.Notice that the randomly selected group, for the antibody tests, did indeed report symptoms AFTER the test came back positive. 3 percent were either infected currently or had anti bodies. 45 percent were asymptomatic. This was the group that showed that the infection rate was 11 times higher than we all thought, based on the limited testing and such.So we can extrapolate the 11X number to the whole nation and get 19 million or so people infected, presently or previously. That would mean we have a death rate between 0.5 and 0.6 percent not 0.26 or 0.4, however. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

were in nursing homes and long term care facilities.43 percent if New York is thrown in with the other 49 states.This is the result of lockdown policies which cause the emergency spending to be diverted from programs to protect the elderly and vulnerable, and instead be used to help prop up a collapsing economy that the lockdown caused.The lockdown has been joined to the hip of a cruel economic calculation that requires the demand for every last federal aid penny to be used with the economy, NOT lives and humanity, in mind.I think the lockdown THEORY is not necessarily going to involve the cruel parasitic package, but the practical results are what they are.It is what it is. And it is deadly . The lockdown is deadly.

First the cutting edge article.NEWS Can We Apply These Lessons From South Korea To Vanquish Covid 19.By Christine Clark, UC San DiegoThursday, May 28, 2020The study shows that the South Korean approach is superior to the nations that have stay at home orders. And the University of Chicago, University of Pennsylvania, UC San Diego joint study gives the actual numerical rate of increased elderly Covid 19 deaths that would result if South Korea took the lockdown approach.The study flat out states that the elderly die in higher numbers when stay at home policies replace the current South Korean policy. These are straight Coronavirus deaths too, not deaths from other causes that are a direct or indirect result of lockdown policies.And South Korea only has 269 Covid deaths, with about 12000 known coronavirus infections. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.Edited by Admin, : Turn bare text into link.

You first.

I can see you don't care too much for the elderly , that die due to the lockdown approach, of the USA, so let me play another note...Look at minorities...Blacks die at a 25 to 30 percent rate, because they have jobs that require work outside of their homes.Can we ever talk about the higher lung and diabetes rates among African Americans.Again, this is a situation where we have to protect, NOT REGULATE, vulnerable populations.Just because the solutions are not popular, does not change the morals of the situation. Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

35% of what?The article I gave you was for the people on a cruise ship. You will notice that about half the people on that ship tested positive."All of the 217 people who remained on board were tested for COVID-19. More than half (59 percent) tested positive, but just 19 percent of those patients had symptoms. The other 81 percent were symptom-free."Doing the math, that's 128 positive tests. Of those that tested positive, 24 had symptoms and 104 did not have symptoms. That's about a 1 to 5 ratio for the population on that cruise ship.This is a small sample and shouldn't be used to make specific predictions about the general population. However, I think it is safe to say that asymptomatic carriers will outnumber symptomatic carriers, and this should be reflected in the mortality and morbidity rates. Confirmed cases are not actual infections.Edited by Taq, : No reason given.

I'm the elderly and I care for us a lot. Whether or not you are elderly, you can set an example by sacrificing yourself for the sake of the Dow.I see you are slowly working yourself into the corner of only sacrificing whites under 60.

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There is a Washington Post article that bounces as you read, it jumps 2 paragraphs up and down every few seconds. Tough to read.read.But it separates states into 3 categories, based on toughness of lockdown restrictions and policies.The tough lockdown approach taken by specific states resulted in higher excess mortality rates in the respective states.The moderate lockdown states had lower excess mortality rates, and Nebraska was listed as a moderate state, but it feels like a severe lockdown state if you live here. Very severe.The states that have the minimal lockdown approach have deaths below the expected mortality rates for the time of year.Link, once Percy puts it in isPandemics Overall Death Toll In US Likely Surpass 100,000 Weeks Ago.May 30Andrew Ba TranLeslie Shapiro

The vast majority of people dyeing from cover are very old, very sick, or very poor. So, I’m guessing that 217 passengers on a luxury cruise ship are not a representative sample of that demographic and not a good basis for estimating the overall covid mortality rate. On the other hand, this article entitled reports that By the end of March, 1 in 7 New York adults had Covid-19 -- about 10 times higher than the official account, according to a new study sponsored by the New York State Department of Health. This adds to a growing body of evidence that the virus was much more prevalent early on in the outbreak than health officials thought at the time. , so that he 5% mortality rate one gets using just confirmed cases may really indicate a 0.5% mortality rate. On yet another hand (these analyses are approaching octopus status), this article entitled CDC warns antibody testing still too inaccurate to use for coronavirus-related policy decisionsreports that current serologic test might have 50% false positives, so maybe the mortality rate is closer to 1% (maybe!). It’s obvious that far, far more data and analyses are required to figure out what is really happening with this disease.What is most worrying to me about this level os scatter in the data is that proper testing of any vaccine will require a huge sample size covering diverse populations and extended periods of time.

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I think the Memorial Day holiday is still affecting reporting, but here's the latest data.Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page. The formerly clear downward trend is a bit less obvious now. We're over 102,000 deaths now: Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic as of yesterday. Here, too, the downward trend has become less obvious. As someone has noted several times, in this national-level chart the rapid decline of cases in New York State is masking increases across the rest of the country: I have no statistical data about degree of mask wearing, but anecdotal data gathered from the news says that many, many people are forgoing masks in indoor public venues like stores and churches, and given that nothing has changed then the only possible outcome is an increase in cases. The only thing that could hold back an increase in cases is a decrease in testing, something the Trump administration is pushing. If they're successful in cutting back testing then we'll have the contradictory situation of a decrease in cases while hospitalizations and deaths increase.Yesterday was grocery day, here's my anecdotal report. Grocery store capacity was set at 150 (it didn't say whether that included staff). I only saw three people without masks.Pharmacy had one person with no mask.Home Depot had three people without masks, a family unit.WalMart I'd estimate that about 65% we were wearing masks, way up from last week. All employees wore masksI saw a number of people who think a mask across the tip of the nose is effective.--Percy