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Author Topic:   Coronavirus and Pandemics
Percy
Member
Posts: 19840
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 811 of 890 (877390)
06-15-2020 9:56 AM
Reply to: Message 804 by Percy
06-02-2020 8:49 PM


Re: The Latest Data
Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page. The trend is mildly downward. We're over 114,000 deaths now, 10,000 in just the past two weeks. If we continue at the current rate there will be at least 130,000 additional deaths by the end of year for a total of nearly 250,000 deaths:

Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards as of yesterday. The trend that was at one time downward, then ambiguous, and now is slightly, but unmistakingly, upward:

A few weeks ago I predicted that cases would spike in 2-3 weeks (June 8 through June 22) and in deaths in 3-5 weeks (June 22 through July 6). These upward spikes would be mitigated, potentially significantly, by social distancing and mask wearing. It's hard to judge the degree to which media coverage exaggerates how much these safety measures are being ignored, but it's safe to say that the more strictly and widely they're followed the more the spikes will be mitigated or even eliminated. Deaths will also be mitigated by increasing medical experience with the virus.

The above graphs are mildly consistent with my predictions, but I hope people in general avoid risky behavior and that my predictions prove false. It would be wonderful if we could get on the downside of this.

I went shopping a couple days ago on Saturday. Mask wearing at the grocery store was 100% (excepting children under 10), a first. I forgot to pay attention to mask wearing at Home Depot. Mask wearing at Walmart was maybe 60%, but it's a big place and you can only ballpark it.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 804 by Percy, posted 06-02-2020 8:49 PM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 812 by Coragyps, posted 06-15-2020 10:18 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply
 Message 833 by Percy, posted 06-21-2020 9:02 PM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
Coragyps
Member
Posts: 5511
From: Snyder, Texas, USA
Joined: 11-12-2002
Member Rating: 3.7


Message 812 of 890 (877391)
06-15-2020 10:18 AM
Reply to: Message 811 by Percy
06-15-2020 9:56 AM


Re: The Latest Data
And meanwhile, in West Texas, we’re setting records in number of Covid hospitalizations and running at maybe 10% mask-wearers at Walmart. Most mask wearers are over sixty years old.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 811 by Percy, posted 06-15-2020 9:56 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
 Message 813 by jar, posted 06-15-2020 10:43 AM Coragyps has not yet responded

  
jar
Member
Posts: 32654
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 1.8


Message 813 of 890 (877393)
06-15-2020 10:43 AM
Reply to: Message 812 by Coragyps
06-15-2020 10:18 AM


Re: The Latest Data
For March, April & May we saw a total of 575 Covid-19 cases.

For the first 14 days of June we have added 475 more new cases. Hospitalization is up, ICU utilization is up, 30% of the new cases are UNDER 30 years of age.

Fortunately we can fall back on the wisdom of Alfred E. Neuman.

Edited by jar, : appalin spallin


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
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Percy
Member
Posts: 19840
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 814 of 890 (877406)
06-15-2020 4:07 PM


FDA Revokes Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine Authorization
The FDA has revoked the emergency authorization for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine for covid-19:

quote:
The FDA said it had concluded that it “is no longer reasonable to believe” that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are effective in treating the disease. “Nor is it reasonable to believe,” the agency said, "that the known and potential benefits of these products outweigh their known and potential risks.”

It is still possible that these drugs could prove of some value in treating covid-19, but their safety and efficacy for this purpose should still be demonstrated by quality studies, and recommendations about them should come from the health profession and not from politicians.

--Percy


  
jar
Member
Posts: 32654
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 1.8


(1)
Message 815 of 890 (877408)
06-15-2020 5:35 PM


Our 7 day moving average.


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

Replies to this message:
 Message 816 by AZPaul3, posted 06-15-2020 8:55 PM jar has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 5118
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.1


(1)
Message 816 of 890 (877415)
06-15-2020 8:55 PM
Reply to: Message 815 by jar
06-15-2020 5:35 PM


What'd you guys do on June 1 have a statewide BBQ and orgy?

Factio Republicana delenda est.
I am antifa.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 815 by jar, posted 06-15-2020 5:35 PM jar has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 817 by jar, posted 06-16-2020 8:07 AM AZPaul3 has not yet responded

  
jar
Member
Posts: 32654
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 1.8


(1)
Message 817 of 890 (877430)
06-16-2020 8:07 AM
Reply to: Message 816 by AZPaul3
06-15-2020 8:55 PM


I stayed home just as I did most every day since this got started. But yes, the herd pretty much did just that; it was rafting parties on the rivers and head to the beach and the bar.

Very very few wearing face masks almost no social distancing.

AbE:

Interesting pattern: interesting pattern June 1 = 9 June 8 = 25 and June 15 = 62

Edited by jar, : see AbE

Edited by jar, : replace ***** with herd to keep the Führer happy


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
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Percy
Member
Posts: 19840
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.8


(1)
Message 818 of 890 (877448)
06-16-2020 12:38 PM
Reply to: Message 810 by Percy
06-15-2020 8:41 AM


Re: Why You Do Not Want To Catch This Virus
Here's another chapter in the continuing saga of why you do not want to catch this virus. From the New York Times:
Rep. Ilhan Omar’s Father Dies From Complications of Covid-19

The article contains no details about Nur Omar Mohamed's death, other than that it was Covid-19 related.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 810 by Percy, posted 06-15-2020 8:41 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
Tangle
Member
Posts: 7710
From: UK
Joined: 10-07-2011
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 819 of 890 (877449)
06-16-2020 12:50 PM


Looks like we've found the first drug that works

Life-saving coronavirus drug 'major breakthrough'


Je suis Charlie. Je suis Ahmed. Je suis Juif. Je suis Parisien. I am Mancunian. I am Brum. I am London.I am Finland. Soy Barcelona

"Life, don't talk to me about life" - Marvin the Paranoid Android

"Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.
Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved."
- Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.


Replies to this message:
 Message 821 by ramoss, posted 06-17-2020 12:12 AM Tangle has not yet responded

  
jar
Member
Posts: 32654
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 1.8


Message 820 of 890 (877484)
06-16-2020 5:55 PM


County Judge just reported that today 143 new cases were reported.

One of the issues here is that our Governor decided that he would set policy and no local jurisdiction would be allowed to implement any policy that was more restrictive than what is set at the State level. We cannot require mask or social distancing or limited occupancy or any other restriction.

March, April & May 575
June 1 9
June 2 26
June 3 24
June 4 45
June 5 22
June 6&7 32 22 avg
June 8 26
June 9 45
June 10 38 267
June 11 70 337
June 12 55 392
June 13&14 83 475 1050 45 avg
June 15 62 537 1112
June 16 143 680 1255


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

Replies to this message:
 Message 822 by ramoss, posted 06-17-2020 12:13 AM jar has responded

  
ramoss
Member
Posts: 3147
Joined: 08-11-2004


Message 821 of 890 (877500)
06-17-2020 12:12 AM
Reply to: Message 819 by Tangle
06-16-2020 12:50 PM


Looks like we've found the first drug that works

In specifically, it's a steroid that if given to someone on oxygen or on a ventilator, drastically reducing the rate of mortality.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 819 by Tangle, posted 06-16-2020 12:50 PM Tangle has not yet responded

  
ramoss
Member
Posts: 3147
Joined: 08-11-2004


Message 822 of 890 (877501)
06-17-2020 12:13 AM
Reply to: Message 820 by jar
06-16-2020 5:55 PM


Abbot is insane and power hungry.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 820 by jar, posted 06-16-2020 5:55 PM jar has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 823 by jar, posted 06-17-2020 7:47 AM ramoss has not yet responded

  
jar
Member
Posts: 32654
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 1.8


Message 823 of 890 (877512)
06-17-2020 7:47 AM
Reply to: Message 822 by ramoss
06-17-2020 12:13 AM


Oh Yeah? Let's look at the facts.
quote:
Under the direction of Governor Abbott, with the advice of the Lt. Governor, Speaker of the House, Attorney General, and Texas Comptroller:

The Governor’s Strike Force to Open Texas will safely and strategically restart and revitalize all aspects of the Lone Star State—work, school, entertainment, and culture.


Source

quote:
"The people of Texas continue to prove that we can safely and responsibly open our state for business while containing COVID-19 and keeping our state safe,” said Governor Abbott. "As anticipated, the new positive cases that we are seeing are largely the result of isolated hot spots in nursing homes, jails, and meat packing plants. Thanks to the effectiveness of our Surge Response Teams, we have the ability to contain those hot spots while opening up Texas for business. As we begin Phase III, I ask all Texans and Texas businesses to continue following the standard health protocols and to heed the guidance of our state and federal officials who continue to closely monitor COVID-19. If we remain vigilant, we will continue to mitigate the spread of this virus, protect public health, and get more Texans back to work and their daily activities."

Note that it shows no deaths, just a few "expired".

It's also an older chart before the latest figures.


My Sister's Website: Rose Hill Studios     My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 822 by ramoss, posted 06-17-2020 12:13 AM ramoss has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 825 by ringo, posted 06-17-2020 11:36 AM jar has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19840
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 824 of 890 (877517)
06-17-2020 8:44 AM


The Straight Story on Masks
Who should wear masks? The consistent advice is that only the infected need wear masks to avoid infecting others, and that masks don't protect the uninfected.

I have strongly repeated in this thread that this advice is wrong. Everyone should wear masks. They prevent the infected from spreading contagious droplets, and they prevent the uninfected from inhaling contagious droplets. This is just plan and simple logic.

Finally Dr. Anthony Fauci has given this same advice. Quoting from Fauci: why the public wasn't told to wear masks when the coronavirus pandemic began:

quote:
"Masks are not 100 percent protective. However, they certainly are better than not wearing a mask. Both to prevent you, if you happen to be a person who maybe feels well, but has an asymptomatic infection that you don't even know about, to prevent you from infecting someone else," Fauci said.

"But also, it can protect you a certain degree, not a hundred percent, in protecting you from getting infected from someone who, either is breathing, or coughing, or sneezing, or singing or whatever it is in which the droplets or the aerosols go out. So masks work,” Fauci added.


Now that a known authority has finally repeated this advice it is very clear: Everyone should wear masks.

Get an N95 mask if you can. Cloth masks and surgical masks are much less effective, especially for small droplets and aerosols.

--Percy

Edited by Percy, : Typo.


Replies to this message:
 Message 887 by ramoss, posted 07-03-2020 12:19 AM Percy has not yet responded

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 18322
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 1.8


(1)
Message 825 of 890 (877522)
06-17-2020 11:36 AM
Reply to: Message 823 by jar
06-17-2020 7:47 AM


Re: Oh Yeah? Let's look at the facts.
Note that it shows no deaths, just a few "expired".

Past their "best before" date.

"I'm Fallen and I can't get up!"

This message is a reply to:
 Message 823 by jar, posted 06-17-2020 7:47 AM jar has not yet responded

  
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