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Author Topic:   Do you really understand the mathematics of evolution?
nwr
Member
Posts: 5611
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 4.7


(1)
Message 11 of 239 (876436)
05-19-2020 8:53 PM
Reply to: Message 10 by Kleinman
05-19-2020 7:59 PM


So you don't really understand the mathematics of evolution.

I am puzzled by your repeated references to "mathematics of evolution."

What is the correct explanation for why it takes a billion replications for each evolutionary step in the Kishony experiment?

Under what definition of "correct"?

It takes as many replications as it takes. This was an empirical experiment to observe how organisms behave.

Perhaps someone wants to try and explain why drug-resistant variants appear in Lenski's founder's population despite the fact that these bacteria were never exposed to antibiotics?

Why does that need explaining? Again, this was an empirical investigation to see how biological organisms behave.

I'm completely puzzled about what you are looking for. I do not see any point to the questions that you are asking.


Fundamentalism - the anti-American, anti-Christian branch of American Christianity

This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by Kleinman, posted 05-19-2020 7:59 PM Kleinman has not yet responded

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 5611
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 4.7


(3)
Message 15 of 239 (876460)
05-20-2020 12:40 PM
Reply to: Message 14 by Kleinman
05-20-2020 10:53 AM


Re: Responses nwr and AZPaul3
Are you familiar with the work of Haldane, Kimura, and many other population geneticists?

Somewhat. The mathematics that they use is ordinary mathematical probability theory. Is that what you mean by "mathematics of evolution"?

So why doesn't it take 10 or 100 replications for each evolutionary step?

I puzzled as to why you would think that.

Evolution isn't a mechanical system to grind out a sequence of steps leading to a particular result. Rather, evolution is a system of keeping the population well adapted to a changing environment.

Don't you find this surprising that drug-resistant bacteria would appear in bacterial populations that were never exposed to the antibiotics and there was resistance to many different antibiotics?

No, that is not at all surprising.

Evolution is a system of trial and error, in order to see what works well. If you are using trial and error methods, then you are going to try out things that turn out to not work. So the bacteria population tries mutations that turn out to not be currently helpful. That's what we should expect.

If they could not produce occasional antibiotic resistant variants when not useful, then they also could not produce them when would be useful.


Fundamentalism - the anti-American, anti-Christian branch of American Christianity

This message is a reply to:
 Message 14 by Kleinman, posted 05-20-2020 10:53 AM Kleinman has not yet responded

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 5611
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 4.7


Message 20 of 239 (876478)
05-20-2020 6:24 PM
Reply to: Message 18 by Kleinman
05-20-2020 5:29 PM


Re: Responses nwr, AZPaul3, and NosyNed
His lineages are grinding out replications until some lucky member gets the correct mutation that enables that variant to grow in the next higher concentration drug region.

That's a typical creationist misunderstanding of evolution.

No, I'm not saying that you are a creationist. I am saying that your misunderstanding of evolution is similar to the misunderstanding that we commonly see among creationists.

The correct mutation which would allow a variant to grow in the next higher concentration region could occur in 10 or 100 replications, but it might take more than a billion replications as well.

Your use of "correct" further betrays your misunderstanding of evolution.

So, now that you understand why you don't need antibiotics for drug-resistant variants to appear, why should medical providers be discouraged from using antibiotics?

And for that I give you a grade of A. That's a perfect score. You have convincingly demonstrated that you are completely clueless about evolution.

Fundamentalism - the anti-American, anti-Christian branch of American Christianity

This message is a reply to:
 Message 18 by Kleinman, posted 05-20-2020 5:29 PM Kleinman has not yet responded

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 5611
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 4.7


(2)
Message 30 of 239 (876693)
05-25-2020 9:58 PM
Reply to: Message 29 by Kleinman
05-25-2020 10:41 AM


Re: Responses to Taq and several other members
Try quoting my entire statement then perhaps you may understand what I'm saying. Here's my full quote.
Kleinman writes:

His lineages are grinding out replications until some lucky member gets the correct mutation that enables that variant to grow in the next higher concentration drug region.


And sure the grind continues (unless extinction occurs which is the most common outcome for most lineages).

I guess it is hopeless. You are continuing to make the same mistake that we often see being made by creationists. And you are damned sure that you are right, even though you are wrong.

Actually, the mathematics of evolution is more like the math of coin tossing. The mathematics of evolution consists of nested binomial probability problems where each binomial probability problem is joined to the other by the multiplication rule of probabilities.

No, that's wrong.

That's about what you would get if the environment were completely static. But the environment is changing all the time. So the probabilities are changing all the time.

The problem of drug resistant bacteria isn't that they show up. The problem is too much use of antibiotics will change the environment so that antibiotic resistant bacteria become more highly favored. And then we will see many more of them and they become a problem.


Fundamentalism - the anti-American, anti-Christian branch of American Christianity

This message is a reply to:
 Message 29 by Kleinman, posted 05-25-2020 10:41 AM Kleinman has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 31 by Kleinman, posted 05-26-2020 9:31 AM nwr has responded

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 5611
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 4.7


(1)
Message 36 of 239 (876733)
05-26-2020 9:23 PM
Reply to: Message 31 by Kleinman
05-26-2020 9:31 AM


Re: Trying to give nwr more than a vague understanding of DNA evolution
The random trial is a replication and the two possible outcomes are, does a beneficial mutation occur or does a beneficial mutation does not occur.

That's too simplistic.

A mutation might allow an organism to move to a slightly different environmental niche. The mutation could be detrimental in the current niche, but advantageous in the new niche.

Withholding antibiotics from someone who needs them not only has health consequences but economic consequences as well.

I'm not aware of any serious suggestions to do that. More commonly the concern is with indiscriminate use of antibiotics, or the use of antibiotics in farm animal feed because it helps to fatten the animals.

Fundamentalism - the anti-American, anti-Christian branch of American Christianity

This message is a reply to:
 Message 31 by Kleinman, posted 05-26-2020 9:31 AM Kleinman has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 37 by jar, posted 05-27-2020 7:33 AM nwr has acknowledged this reply

  
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