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Author Topic:   Trump and Trump supporters keep using the Y2K Fallacy, and it is driving me crazy
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6007
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 8 of 126 (883056)
11-02-2020 10:36 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by Sarah Bellum
11-02-2020 3:29 PM


they will be less likely to have popular support for the actions they recommend.

Oh, posh popular support. I am not optimistic. Not until people personally feel the effects themselves in ever increasing numbers. Something like taking a rich productive society and reducing through drought its social fabric to the point of civil war. Wait. We have that. Twice. More coming.

Well, they're mostly brown so it's easy to not see it.

Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.


Factio Republicana delenda est.
I am antifa.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by Sarah Bellum, posted 11-02-2020 3:29 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 13 by Sarah Bellum, posted 01-10-2021 9:25 AM AZPaul3 has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6007
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


(2)
Message 15 of 126 (883766)
01-10-2021 10:23 AM
Reply to: Message 13 by Sarah Bellum
01-10-2021 9:25 AM


that's why we got pure food and drug laws, child labor laws, seat belt laws, civil rights laws etc. etc. etc.

What planet are you from?

The truth, which they have been given in spades, is ignored.

We have those laws because we overcame the restrictive social fascists which still, to this day, ignore, flout and seek to overturn these programs. Note all the efforts by Trump & Co to rescind by executive order establish environmental protections even in the face of the reality of the dangers.

Truth does not matter to a very large segment of our religious and racist society.

We should always give the people the facts and the reasons, but, as shown in the last few days here, truth is not an impediment to stupid.

I am not in the least bit optimistic that enough of this world society is intelligent or motivated enough to deal with the environmental damage we will suffer these next few hundred years.

Just that time line alone is beyond their comprehension or care.

We need to install highly restrictive programs on carbon emissions and other pollution controls. But the level of stupid and greed in our society is too great to establish such despite the truth being glaringly obvious.

You, My dear, and we all, have nothing to be optimistic about. We are too stupid and greedy to deal with the environmental facts, the reality, the truth as we know it, and we, as a species, will suffer greatly because of it.


Factio Republicana delenda est.
I am antifa.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by Sarah Bellum, posted 01-10-2021 9:25 AM Sarah Bellum has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 16 by jar, posted 01-10-2021 10:32 AM AZPaul3 has responded
 Message 22 by Sarah Bellum, posted 01-12-2021 7:22 PM AZPaul3 has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6007
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


(5)
Message 17 of 126 (883768)
01-10-2021 10:38 AM
Reply to: Message 16 by jar
01-10-2021 10:32 AM


Then suffering it is. Money is too valuable to waste on human beings.

Factio Republicana delenda est.
I am antifa.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 16 by jar, posted 01-10-2021 10:32 AM jar has not yet responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6007
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


(3)
Message 20 of 126 (883776)
01-10-2021 2:46 PM
Reply to: Message 18 by Phat
01-10-2021 12:35 PM


... while Democrats believe idealistically in helping all of the people at the expense of individual interests...which is unrealistic.

Where did this come from?

What individual interests are you expecting to lose?

Besides...why does this stupid bill need to get paid? What if we just tear it up?
The only Landlord that can evict us is reality itself.

Sure. We can ignore the coming future of war, disease and famine humanity faces in the next few hundred years because of severe economic and social disruptions caused by long term shifting weather patterns and disappearing coastlines where most of us live on this planet. We're doing that anyway.

And as we have seen recently, the USofA is not immune to unrest let alone the factional wars about to be unleashed.

And we are too greedy, too concerned about our individual interests, to care.

We can go extinct in the next few thousand years along with the rest of mammalia.

Phat? Does any of this register with you? Like jar said present societies pay an increasingly steep price now or humanity, over the next few centuries, pays the cost in famine, disease and war to an unprecedented, species-threatening degree.

Our judgement day, Phat, has already passed. We failed. Now the horsemen are loose upon us.

Unfortunate for your dream of being saved by a cosmic ghost, what is happening is not from some ghost but is from us. And, as we have seen throughout all of human history and all of cosmic history there is no majik ghost out there to save us.

As I've said before, waiting for some hoped-for ghost to save us is the most egregiously evil and fuckin'ly stupid excuse ever. Even ahead of greed.

If so, make everyone pay the same as a percentage of their income.

Let's do that.

Problem. The $$billionaires won't allow it.

Got anything else?

Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.


Factio Republicana delenda est.
I am antifa.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 18 by Phat, posted 01-10-2021 12:35 PM Phat has not yet responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6007
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


(1)
Message 23 of 126 (883808)
01-12-2021 8:57 PM
Reply to: Message 22 by Sarah Bellum
01-12-2021 7:22 PM


One can get things done by lying to people, yes, but I think telling the truth is more effective at getting things done you really want done.

We, the environmental anthropic warming crowd, are not lying to anyone. The nay-sayers and conspiracy nuts, the industrial elite and the whole capitalist edifice are lying to the world about how insignificant a few rain showers are and laugh when it snows outside sneering at "global warming".

Climate change has caused billions of dollars in flood damages

But it doesn't seem to matter. Not enough people care. We missed one big tipping point about 50 years ago and we're approaching a more desperate tipping point in the next 30 years. We will miss it. By a lot. Like we didn't even try. Which we didn't.

In early 1941 it looked like an unlikely alliance of Soviet Socialism, National Socialism and Japanese Imperialism might doom us to a millennium of woe.
But it didn't

At the cost of 150 million dead in a world we are evolved to inhabit.

Drastically change that environment, all over the globe, all at the same (relative) time, and layer on top of that a modern war conflict on the scale of WWII over multiple places on several continents.

Not even close. Your analogy is way weak.

Amsetri tre!

Dif-tor heh smusma.

Ehh ... Zephram's going to be a bit late getting here. Something about the capitol building.


Factio Republicana delenda est.
I am antifa.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 22 by Sarah Bellum, posted 01-12-2021 7:22 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 24 by Sarah Bellum, posted 01-16-2021 8:13 AM AZPaul3 has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6007
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 25 of 126 (883870)
01-16-2021 11:46 AM
Reply to: Message 24 by Sarah Bellum
01-16-2021 8:13 AM


So you think scientists extrapolating from data is the same as some religious nutcase pulling prophecies out his ass? Foolish.

Someone, definitely not a climate scientist, overblows their essays with emotion and you treat it as if it was some official scientific pronouncement of the future. That is stupid, Sarah. Don't do that.

Even the prognostications of the IPCC, The Climate Group, NOAA, WMO are not precise enough for the bullshit forecasts you cited. But they all agree on this:

Global temperatures are rising and humans are the cause. This will inevitably lead to long term shifts in weather patterns and coastlines that will result in massive population dislocations most probably resulting in social disruptions and the famine, disease and war that usually accompany such changes long and short term. See Syria, Ethiopia/Eritrea/Somalia, Yemen. Disintegrated societies plagued by famine/disease then devastated by war all due to climate change.

On Blaming Climate Change for the Syrian Civil War - MERIP

You find solace in bashing the hyped prognostications of charlatans. We do talk and have been talking about tropical diseases, hurricanes, crop yields and such. We talk about the future of famine, disease and war. Then you come along centered on the scare tactics of charlatans and religious weenies and destroy that message with bullshit comparisons.

You, my dear, are the very problem that is dooming us all with inaction.


Factio Republicana delenda est.
I am antifa.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 24 by Sarah Bellum, posted 01-16-2021 8:13 AM Sarah Bellum has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 29 by Sarah Bellum, posted 01-21-2021 6:19 PM AZPaul3 has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6007
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 30 of 126 (884067)
01-21-2021 7:17 PM
Reply to: Message 29 by Sarah Bellum
01-21-2021 6:19 PM


Dr. James Hansen or Dr. David Viner (climate researcher at the University of East Anglia) or the Environment ministry of the Maldives

Care to show how these support your claims in Message 24?

By the way, if you're so worried about people who are "definitely not climate scientists" doesn't that write a lot of sensible people, from former V.P. Al Gore to Greta Thunberg, onto the pay-no-mind list?

Why should it? They're popular and they spread the scientific understanding. Do you have a problem with that?

Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.

Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 29 by Sarah Bellum, posted 01-21-2021 6:19 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 31 by Sarah Bellum, posted 04-10-2021 9:51 AM AZPaul3 has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6007
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 32 of 126 (885387)
04-10-2021 11:51 AM
Reply to: Message 31 by Sarah Bellum
04-10-2021 9:51 AM


But the people I quoted above were, first of all, speaking from some position of authority (the environment director may or not have been a scientist, but the other two were) and, second, they got their facts (or, rather, their predictions) muddled.

So what?

Some responsible people were wrong about some future predictions from 30 years ago.

That triviality means nothing. There are more issues here than chasing fake internet points.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 31 by Sarah Bellum, posted 04-10-2021 9:51 AM Sarah Bellum has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 33 by Sarah Bellum, posted 04-14-2021 2:07 PM AZPaul3 has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6007
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 34 of 126 (885515)
04-15-2021 8:32 PM
Reply to: Message 33 by Sarah Bellum
04-14-2021 2:07 PM


So they must be answered.

No.

The flame throwers who try to burn down the entirety of the science by finding fault in a few individuals, must be ignored.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 33 by Sarah Bellum, posted 04-14-2021 2:07 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 35 by Sarah Bellum, posted 04-20-2021 7:07 PM AZPaul3 has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6007
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 36 of 126 (885628)
04-20-2021 7:32 PM
Reply to: Message 35 by Sarah Bellum
04-20-2021 7:07 PM


But the real problem here concerns predictions of doom

No, Sarah. The real problem is we are burning up the world big time and there are far too many obfuscators sidetracking the narrative with picayune trivialities.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 35 by Sarah Bellum, posted 04-20-2021 7:07 PM Sarah Bellum has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
 Message 37 by jar, posted 04-20-2021 8:18 PM AZPaul3 has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6007
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 38 of 126 (885634)
04-20-2021 10:28 PM
Reply to: Message 37 by jar
04-20-2021 8:18 PM


Too Late
Yet so far the trend actually continues to point towards those direst projections and what reality show is that human efforts have changed the timing but so far there is no indication that we have done anything more than postpone the consequences.

True, we are in deep doo-doo, but I have seen no studies indicating any mediation-caused delay in this scheduled funeral for our species. Quite the opposite. Target goals are falling farther behind, being missed altogether with tipping points rushing at us faster than we had forseen.

My message Message 718

In speaking of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

quote:
And why, you might ask, is this happening now. Well, it seems we've been missing quite a few smaller target points on our environmental fix-it list and now, surprise, the problem has gotten worse and the flow from ice to current is increasing faster than expected. The tipping point is coming faster than expected and now there is no time left for mitigation since it is here, it is happening, right here in front of our faces ...and ... we can't stop it. Too late.

Unfortunately, this same scene is being played out with ocean thermal gain, Antarctic ice melts and, the biggie, anthropic carbon emissions. It has all sped up these last few years. We're in worse shape than we thought. Our timeline to oblivion needs to be re-calculated to be well sooner that we thought.

Edited by AZPaul3, : title


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 37 by jar, posted 04-20-2021 8:18 PM jar has not yet responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6007
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


(2)
Message 44 of 126 (885686)
04-22-2021 6:42 PM
Reply to: Message 40 by Sarah Bellum
04-22-2021 4:52 PM


The Y2K problems that DID happen show what a meagre issue it all was: a 105 year old grandmother getting a notice about her first day at kindergarten, a plant employee binning an ingredient for a mixture because the computer told him it had expired 98 years ago. You know, disasters!

And the hundreds of billions $$ that wouldn't transfer bank to bank because some computers thought those transactions had already been processed, a hundred years ago. And the newly input rail traffic schedules that wouldn't get implemented because they were "old".

Yes, we saw them coming, disasters! And we fixed them before they happened.

Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 40 by Sarah Bellum, posted 04-22-2021 4:52 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 55 by Sarah Bellum, posted 05-01-2021 9:34 AM AZPaul3 has not yet responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6007
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


(2)
Message 52 of 126 (885716)
04-23-2021 6:40 PM
Reply to: Message 51 by ramoss
04-23-2021 3:59 PM


Many, many hours.

Way back in 1995 I was on a team that was contracted to help BofA test their ACH and wire transfer programs.

We copied all their production stuff to an isolated test partition and put up a database of live transactions from Dec-Jan 1994-95. We went through each record to update time/date stamps and coded security fields to Dec-Jan 99-00.

The biggest headache setting up the test was the base system, IMS. IMS did not react well to having the sysclock set forward. The IBM guys on our team spent two days getting it right. Yes, two 24 hour days straight. We were under contract and you don't argue with the biggest gorilla in the financial world.

The entire setup took 3 months. The tests did not go well. BofA spent the next year becoming Y2k compliant for ACH, FedWire, SWIFT and all.

Many hours indeed.

Edited by AZPaul3, : No reason given.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 51 by ramoss, posted 04-23-2021 3:59 PM ramoss has not yet responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6007
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 67 of 126 (886067)
05-04-2021 9:44 PM
Reply to: Message 66 by Sarah Bellum
05-04-2021 9:25 PM


There never really were any serious worries.

Well, after 21 years, it's no use worrying about them now.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 66 by Sarah Bellum, posted 05-04-2021 9:25 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 68 by Tanypteryx, posted 05-05-2021 12:02 AM AZPaul3 has responded
 Message 69 by xongsmith, posted 05-05-2021 12:24 AM AZPaul3 has responded
 Message 80 by Sarah Bellum, posted 05-20-2021 6:08 PM AZPaul3 has acknowledged this reply

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6007
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.5


Message 70 of 126 (886070)
05-05-2021 12:45 AM
Reply to: Message 68 by Tanypteryx
05-05-2021 12:02 AM


It's always interesting to have some chucklehead swear that something I was directly involved in didn't happen.

Your experiences can't be trusted. You, sir, are one of them real scientists with published papers and everything.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 68 by Tanypteryx, posted 05-05-2021 12:02 AM Tanypteryx has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 75 by Tanypteryx, posted 05-05-2021 7:55 PM AZPaul3 has not yet responded

  
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