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Author Topic:   Trump and Trump supporters keep using the Y2K Fallacy, and it is driving me crazy
Sarah Bellum
Member
Posts: 738
Joined: 05-04-2019


Message 91 of 102 (887120)
07-11-2021 5:19 PM
Reply to: Message 88 by ringo
06-22-2021 12:20 PM


If social media is how you keep yourself "informed"...

Anyway,

If anyone is claiming I'm "wishing away" global warming, they simply haven't been reading my posts. I'm looking forward to the day when cars are all electric, and that electricity is produced by renewables. Or maybe nuclear fusion, if it turns out to actually be nonpolluting. If they actually get it past the break-even point. Of course, they've been predicting they could make nuclear fusion feasible even longer than global warming has been predicted (See Another Ice Age? for example)

But those predictions of fusion power bringing electricity too cheap to meter don't matter as much as the predictions made in the 1980s the Maldives would be underwater within 30 years or predictions in the 1980s that New York City's West Side Highway would be submerged within 30 years or predictions at the turn of the century that within a few years children in the UK wouldn't know what snow is....

It's no longer a scientific question. It's a political problem. Like vaccination. The fact that so many are skittish about vaccination is a sign of political failure. So is the debate over Global Warming.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 88 by ringo, posted 06-22-2021 12:20 PM ringo has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 92 by Tanypteryx, posted 07-11-2021 11:01 PM Sarah Bellum has responded
 Message 93 by ringo, posted 07-12-2021 12:25 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 2527
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.8


(2)
Message 92 of 102 (887124)
07-11-2021 11:01 PM
Reply to: Message 91 by Sarah Bellum
07-11-2021 5:19 PM


don't matter as much as the predictions made in the 1980s the Maldives would be underwater within 30 years or predictions in the 1980s that New York City's West Side Highway would be submerged within 30 years or predictions at the turn of the century that within a few years children in the UK wouldn't know what snow is...

Who made these predictions? Why do they matter?


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 91 by Sarah Bellum, posted 07-11-2021 5:19 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 98 by Sarah Bellum, posted 07-21-2021 6:19 PM Tanypteryx has responded

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19140
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.5


(2)
Message 93 of 102 (887133)
07-12-2021 12:25 PM
Reply to: Message 91 by Sarah Bellum
07-11-2021 5:19 PM


Sarah Bellum writes:

If social media is how you keep yourself "informed"...


It isn't. Where did you get that idea?

When I heard that there was fake news on Facebook, my first reaction was, "There's news on Facebook?"

My second reaction was, "What kind of idiot would get his news from Facebook?"


"I've been to Moose Jaw, now I can die." -- John Wing

This message is a reply to:
 Message 91 by Sarah Bellum, posted 07-11-2021 5:19 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 97 by Sarah Bellum, posted 07-21-2021 6:15 PM ringo has responded

  
ramoss
Member
Posts: 3209
Joined: 08-11-2004


(1)
Message 94 of 102 (887134)
07-12-2021 6:55 PM
Reply to: Message 55 by Sarah Bellum
05-01-2021 9:34 AM


I was working at a large computer company in 1999. One of the things that we worked on was testing to find Y2K bugs. One project found more than 500 problems that would have broken those programs. They problme then could get fixed. Do you know how many hundreds of thousands of man hours went into make sure that nothing would happen?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 55 by Sarah Bellum, posted 05-01-2021 9:34 AM Sarah Bellum has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
 Message 95 by dwise1, posted 07-13-2021 3:22 PM ramoss has not yet responded

  
dwise1
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Posts: 4639
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 4.5


(1)
Message 95 of 102 (887149)
07-13-2021 3:22 PM
Reply to: Message 94 by ramoss
07-12-2021 6:55 PM


I've presented the story a couple times already in this topic.

When I attended the retirement ceremony for a Master Chief Petty Officer who had served in a port security boat unit serving in the Gulf, his commanding admiral was a speaker. The admiral described how his US Army opposite numbers would question why he was even necessary if nothing had happened. He tried to explain to them that if nothing had happened, then that is because he was successful in doing his job.


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Parasomnium
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Posts: 2194
Joined: 07-15-2003


(3)
Message 96 of 102 (887178)
07-21-2021 3:29 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by coffee_addict
11-21-2020 12:58 AM


Another question
I mean, is there some kind of mental block that prevents certain people from understanding the importance of preventive measures and the connection between preventive measures and something NOT happening?

This suggests another question like those you put forward as examples of the fallacy:

"Why do people keep having to go to church every Sunday if they already have blind faith in its Bronze Age myth and have completely shut down their critical faculties?"


"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science." - Charles Darwin.

This message is a reply to:
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Sarah Bellum
Member
Posts: 738
Joined: 05-04-2019


Message 97 of 102 (887179)
07-21-2021 6:15 PM
Reply to: Message 93 by ringo
07-12-2021 12:25 PM


Where did I get that idea? From reading your posts:

In an earlier post, I wrote, "... no wonder I only check in here every month or so!" Meaning I didn't check this particular social media site (evcforum.net) very often. You replied, "That's one way to avoid learning anything," indicating that this particular social media site (evcforum.net) provides you with learning.

If you're not going to read my posts, why do you bother to respond to them?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 93 by ringo, posted 07-12-2021 12:25 PM ringo has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 101 by ringo, posted 07-21-2021 8:49 PM Sarah Bellum has not yet responded

  
Sarah Bellum
Member
Posts: 738
Joined: 05-04-2019


Message 98 of 102 (887180)
07-21-2021 6:19 PM
Reply to: Message 92 by Tanypteryx
07-11-2021 11:01 PM



This message is a reply to:
 Message 92 by Tanypteryx, posted 07-11-2021 11:01 PM Tanypteryx has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 102 by Tanypteryx, posted 07-21-2021 8:56 PM Sarah Bellum has not yet responded

  
Sarah Bellum
Member
Posts: 738
Joined: 05-04-2019


Message 99 of 102 (887181)
07-21-2021 6:21 PM
Reply to: Message 90 by kjsimons
06-22-2021 7:49 PM


No, definitely not a good thing!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 90 by kjsimons, posted 06-22-2021 7:49 PM kjsimons has not yet responded

  
Sarah Bellum
Member
Posts: 738
Joined: 05-04-2019


Message 100 of 102 (887182)
07-21-2021 6:22 PM
Reply to: Message 89 by Tanypteryx
06-22-2021 6:24 PM


What with the Wuhan Flu forcing us to be online so much, there's just a lot of temptation....

This message is a reply to:
 Message 89 by Tanypteryx, posted 06-22-2021 6:24 PM Tanypteryx has not yet responded

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19140
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.5


Message 101 of 102 (887185)
07-21-2021 8:49 PM
Reply to: Message 97 by Sarah Bellum
07-21-2021 6:15 PM


Sarah Bellum writes:

Meaning I didn't check this particular social media site (evcforum.net) very often.


When they talk about social media on the news, they're not talking about EvC. Social media sites - e.g. Facebook, which I mentioned explicitly in the post you're replying to - are inherently subjective, which is why they are worthless as news sources. EvC tries to be as objective as possible, which makes it diametrically opposite to a social media site.

Sarah Bellum writes:

If you're not going to read my posts, why do you bother to respond to them?


Where on earth did you get that idea? I do read your posts. How else could I respond to them?

"I've been to Moose Jaw, now I can die." -- John Wing

This message is a reply to:
 Message 97 by Sarah Bellum, posted 07-21-2021 6:15 PM Sarah Bellum has not yet responded

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 2527
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 102 of 102 (887186)
07-21-2021 8:56 PM
Reply to: Message 98 by Sarah Bellum
07-21-2021 6:19 PM


Tanypteryx writes:

Why do they matter?

Sarah B writes:

It's in an earlier post of mine: https://www.evcforum.net/dm.php?control=page&t=20161&mpp=...

Who cares? I still don't understand why you think they matter?


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 98 by Sarah Bellum, posted 07-21-2021 6:19 PM Sarah Bellum has not yet responded

  
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