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Author Topic:   Trump and Trump supporters keep using the Y2K Fallacy, and it is driving me crazy
Sarah Bellum
Member
Posts: 748
Joined: 05-04-2019


Message 91 of 126 (887120)
07-11-2021 5:19 PM
Reply to: Message 88 by ringo
06-22-2021 12:20 PM


If social media is how you keep yourself "informed"...

Anyway,

If anyone is claiming I'm "wishing away" global warming, they simply haven't been reading my posts. I'm looking forward to the day when cars are all electric, and that electricity is produced by renewables. Or maybe nuclear fusion, if it turns out to actually be nonpolluting. If they actually get it past the break-even point. Of course, they've been predicting they could make nuclear fusion feasible even longer than global warming has been predicted (See Another Ice Age? for example)

But those predictions of fusion power bringing electricity too cheap to meter don't matter as much as the predictions made in the 1980s the Maldives would be underwater within 30 years or predictions in the 1980s that New York City's West Side Highway would be submerged within 30 years or predictions at the turn of the century that within a few years children in the UK wouldn't know what snow is....

It's no longer a scientific question. It's a political problem. Like vaccination. The fact that so many are skittish about vaccination is a sign of political failure. So is the debate over Global Warming.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 88 by ringo, posted 06-22-2021 12:20 PM ringo has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 92 by Tanypteryx, posted 07-11-2021 11:01 PM Sarah Bellum has responded
 Message 93 by ringo, posted 07-12-2021 12:25 PM Sarah Bellum has responded
 Message 107 by Percy, posted 08-04-2021 12:19 PM Sarah Bellum has responded
 Message 108 by Tanypteryx, posted 08-04-2021 1:33 PM Sarah Bellum has responded
 Message 109 by glowby, posted 08-08-2021 5:41 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 2580
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 5.9


(2)
Message 92 of 126 (887124)
07-11-2021 11:01 PM
Reply to: Message 91 by Sarah Bellum
07-11-2021 5:19 PM


don't matter as much as the predictions made in the 1980s the Maldives would be underwater within 30 years or predictions in the 1980s that New York City's West Side Highway would be submerged within 30 years or predictions at the turn of the century that within a few years children in the UK wouldn't know what snow is...

Who made these predictions? Why do they matter?


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 91 by Sarah Bellum, posted 07-11-2021 5:19 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 98 by Sarah Bellum, posted 07-21-2021 6:19 PM Tanypteryx has responded

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19252
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 4.1


(2)
Message 93 of 126 (887133)
07-12-2021 12:25 PM
Reply to: Message 91 by Sarah Bellum
07-11-2021 5:19 PM


Sarah Bellum writes:

If social media is how you keep yourself "informed"...


It isn't. Where did you get that idea?

When I heard that there was fake news on Facebook, my first reaction was, "There's news on Facebook?"

My second reaction was, "What kind of idiot would get his news from Facebook?"


"I've been to Moose Jaw, now I can die." -- John Wing

This message is a reply to:
 Message 91 by Sarah Bellum, posted 07-11-2021 5:19 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 97 by Sarah Bellum, posted 07-21-2021 6:15 PM ringo has responded

  
ramoss
Member
Posts: 3209
Joined: 08-11-2004


(1)
Message 94 of 126 (887134)
07-12-2021 6:55 PM
Reply to: Message 55 by Sarah Bellum
05-01-2021 9:34 AM


I was working at a large computer company in 1999. One of the things that we worked on was testing to find Y2K bugs. One project found more than 500 problems that would have broken those programs. They problme then could get fixed. Do you know how many hundreds of thousands of man hours went into make sure that nothing would happen?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 55 by Sarah Bellum, posted 05-01-2021 9:34 AM Sarah Bellum has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
 Message 95 by dwise1, posted 07-13-2021 3:22 PM ramoss has not yet responded

  
dwise1
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Posts: 4715
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.0


(2)
Message 95 of 126 (887149)
07-13-2021 3:22 PM
Reply to: Message 94 by ramoss
07-12-2021 6:55 PM


I've presented the story a couple times already in this topic.

When I attended the retirement ceremony for a Master Chief Petty Officer who had served in a port security boat unit serving in the Gulf, his commanding admiral was a speaker. The admiral described how his US Army opposite numbers would question why he was even necessary if nothing had happened. He tried to explain to them that if nothing had happened, then that is because he was successful in doing his job.


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Parasomnium
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Posts: 2199
Joined: 07-15-2003


(3)
Message 96 of 126 (887178)
07-21-2021 3:29 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by coffee_addict
11-21-2020 12:58 AM


Another question
I mean, is there some kind of mental block that prevents certain people from understanding the importance of preventive measures and the connection between preventive measures and something NOT happening?

This suggests another question like those you put forward as examples of the fallacy:

"Why do people keep having to go to church every Sunday if they already have blind faith in its Bronze Age myth and have completely shut down their critical faculties?"


"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science." - Charles Darwin.

This message is a reply to:
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Sarah Bellum
Member
Posts: 748
Joined: 05-04-2019


Message 97 of 126 (887179)
07-21-2021 6:15 PM
Reply to: Message 93 by ringo
07-12-2021 12:25 PM


Where did I get that idea? From reading your posts:

In an earlier post, I wrote, "... no wonder I only check in here every month or so!" Meaning I didn't check this particular social media site (evcforum.net) very often. You replied, "That's one way to avoid learning anything," indicating that this particular social media site (evcforum.net) provides you with learning.

If you're not going to read my posts, why do you bother to respond to them?


This message is a reply to:
 Message 93 by ringo, posted 07-12-2021 12:25 PM ringo has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 101 by ringo, posted 07-21-2021 8:49 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

  
Sarah Bellum
Member
Posts: 748
Joined: 05-04-2019


Message 98 of 126 (887180)
07-21-2021 6:19 PM
Reply to: Message 92 by Tanypteryx
07-11-2021 11:01 PM



This message is a reply to:
 Message 92 by Tanypteryx, posted 07-11-2021 11:01 PM Tanypteryx has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 102 by Tanypteryx, posted 07-21-2021 8:56 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

  
Sarah Bellum
Member
Posts: 748
Joined: 05-04-2019


Message 99 of 126 (887181)
07-21-2021 6:21 PM
Reply to: Message 90 by kjsimons
06-22-2021 7:49 PM


No, definitely not a good thing!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 90 by kjsimons, posted 06-22-2021 7:49 PM kjsimons has not yet responded

  
Sarah Bellum
Member
Posts: 748
Joined: 05-04-2019


Message 100 of 126 (887182)
07-21-2021 6:22 PM
Reply to: Message 89 by Tanypteryx
06-22-2021 6:24 PM


What with the Wuhan Flu forcing us to be online so much, there's just a lot of temptation....

This message is a reply to:
 Message 89 by Tanypteryx, posted 06-22-2021 6:24 PM Tanypteryx has not yet responded

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19252
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 4.1


Message 101 of 126 (887185)
07-21-2021 8:49 PM
Reply to: Message 97 by Sarah Bellum
07-21-2021 6:15 PM


Sarah Bellum writes:

Meaning I didn't check this particular social media site (evcforum.net) very often.


When they talk about social media on the news, they're not talking about EvC. Social media sites - e.g. Facebook, which I mentioned explicitly in the post you're replying to - are inherently subjective, which is why they are worthless as news sources. EvC tries to be as objective as possible, which makes it diametrically opposite to a social media site.

Sarah Bellum writes:

If you're not going to read my posts, why do you bother to respond to them?


Where on earth did you get that idea? I do read your posts. How else could I respond to them?

"I've been to Moose Jaw, now I can die." -- John Wing

This message is a reply to:
 Message 97 by Sarah Bellum, posted 07-21-2021 6:15 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 104 by Sarah Bellum, posted 08-03-2021 7:49 AM ringo has responded

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 2580
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 5.9


Message 102 of 126 (887186)
07-21-2021 8:56 PM
Reply to: Message 98 by Sarah Bellum
07-21-2021 6:19 PM


Tanypteryx writes:

Why do they matter?

Sarah B writes:

It's in an earlier post of mine: https://www.evcforum.net/dm.php?control=page&t=20161&mpp=...

Who cares? I still don't understand why you think they matter?


What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


This message is a reply to:
 Message 98 by Sarah Bellum, posted 07-21-2021 6:19 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 103 by Sarah Bellum, posted 08-03-2021 7:47 AM Tanypteryx has not yet responded

  
Sarah Bellum
Member
Posts: 748
Joined: 05-04-2019


Message 103 of 126 (887426)
08-03-2021 7:47 AM
Reply to: Message 102 by Tanypteryx
07-21-2021 8:56 PM


I spent several posts explaining that reckless predictions blowing up in what are supposed to be reputable authorities' faces do a great deal to damage the cause of environmentalism. It's the Paul Ehrlich debacle all over again. Cassandra's curse may be just the thing that ruins the struggle against Global Warming.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 102 by Tanypteryx, posted 07-21-2021 8:56 PM Tanypteryx has not yet responded

  
Sarah Bellum
Member
Posts: 748
Joined: 05-04-2019


Message 104 of 126 (887427)
08-03-2021 7:49 AM
Reply to: Message 101 by ringo
07-21-2021 8:49 PM


It's easy to respond to posts without reading them. Just click the "reply" button and let your fingers start typing whatever comes into their little minds. But it's kind of a drag to watch that sort of thing. So I don't come here that often. It feels too much like SCREAM INTO THE VOID

As for "social media", if you're saying the EvC social media site is somehow more "reliable" as a source of information than FaceBook, just remember that EvC stands for "Evolution versus Creationism," as if there were some valid argument for Creationism to be found here!


This message is a reply to:
 Message 101 by ringo, posted 07-21-2021 8:49 PM ringo has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 105 by dwise1, posted 08-03-2021 8:33 AM Sarah Bellum has responded
 Message 106 by ringo, posted 08-03-2021 12:40 PM Sarah Bellum has responded

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 4715
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.0


(2)
Message 105 of 126 (887431)
08-03-2021 8:33 AM
Reply to: Message 104 by Sarah Bellum
08-03-2021 7:49 AM


... just remember that EvC stands for "Evolution versus Creationism," as if there were some valid argument for Creationism to be found here!

Of course creationism has no validity! For that matter, the entire "Evolution/Creation Controversy" is nonsense that they just made up.

Yes, it is valid to complain that responding to creationists can lend them some credibility which they do not deserve. Since that point is usually raised within the context of whether to debate them in public, the counter-point is that if we don't then they're just going to present their nonsense anyway, only unopposed which just lends them greater credibility as they can also proclaim "Scientists have no answers for these questions we're raising!"

For example there was a site (still is) called questionevolution.com which listed page after page of standard PRATTs purportedly from a "creation science" class he had taken a couple decades prior. His home page included (and still does) the boast that no scientist has ever been able to answer these questions (I'm sure that also appeared in his original class handout).

He even posted here and in other forums to advertise his page and to challenge us all to answer his PRATTs, which we did. He promised to post them, but he could never find the time. So someone created and hosted the answers and gave him the link, which he did post on his site. We answered every single one of his PRATTs. Basically, he didn't know what had hit him. Then several months later he quietly removed that link even though his home page still boasts that nobody's been able to answer any of his PRATTs.

The problem is that if nobody points that out


This message is a reply to:
 Message 104 by Sarah Bellum, posted 08-03-2021 7:49 AM Sarah Bellum has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 118 by Sarah Bellum, posted 09-05-2021 11:45 AM dwise1 has not yet responded

  
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