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Author Topic:   COVID vaccine works - we're saved!
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 99 of 1110 (886884)
06-13-2021 5:41 PM
Reply to: Message 98 by PaulK
06-13-2021 2:45 PM


Re: A Lab Origin for SARS-CoV-2
PaulK writes:
quote:
You're arguing that science writers are unreliable communicators.
They often are, but that isn’t my point. The point is that he isn't an expert and his personal opinions - which is what he’s offering - shouldn’t be accepted as anything more than the personal opinions of someone who isn’t an expert.
You're mischaracterizing Wade's article. He's distilling information from the scientific community.
quote:
I think Wade is a top-notch science writer.
Which still doesn’t make him an expert.
Much of our information about the current state of research comes to us through science writers. It is nice when scientists themselves write for laypeople.
quote:
Except that your reasons are unrelated to what Wade says in the article.
And they don’t have to be. You obviously have a lot invested in setting up Wade as an authority but he simply isn’t in this matter.
I really have nothing invested in this. I'm at a loss to understand why you've gone off the deep end about Wade. He explained why the engineered hypothesis is getting increased attention. That's it.
Let us also remember that I did address his arguments.
You really didn't. You said a little about the furin cleavage, which I rebutted, but other than that you've just been derogatory.
quote:
Of course. I think you misunderstand why I posted a message about Wade's article. I consider it an explanation for why the engineered hypothesis is now receiving increased attention. I don't consider it a conclusive argument for the engineered hypothesis, nor, as you'll find if you actually read the article, does Wade.
No, you go further than that.
No, I don't.
You take the article as putting the engineered hypothesis on at least a rough par with the natural origin hypothesis, but the evidence is pretty weak and it really needs to be better.
None of this is true, either. I have said, and will now say again, I don't have an opinion about which is more likely. You're misinterpreting my objections to your inexplicable attacks on Wade the science writer as advocacy for the engineered hypothesis.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 98 by PaulK, posted 06-13-2021 2:45 PM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 100 by PaulK, posted 06-14-2021 12:24 AM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 101 of 1110 (886887)
06-14-2021 12:01 PM
Reply to: Message 100 by PaulK
06-14-2021 12:24 AM


Re: A Lab Origin for SARS-CoV-2
PaulK writes:
quote:
You're mischaracterizing Wade's article. He's distilling information from the scientific community.
Is he? It doesn’t look that way to me.
It's fine with me if you have a different opinion. I only find fault with the way you deal with information or opinions you disagree with, by attacking the person.
Which scientists claim that the furin cleavage is evidence of engineering? Is it a consensus view? What about the scientists who disagree?
You're either mischaracterizing or misconstruing the situation. No one is claiming the scientific community is divided into opposing camps of engineered versus natural origins. The actual situation is that more voices within the scientific community are coming forward in favor of a closer look at the engineered possibility.
quote:
Much of our information about the current state of research comes to us through science writers. It is nice when scientists themselves write for laypeople.
And I’ve always said that reading the original paper is better than trusting the science writers.
If one's competent in the field, sure. But most people are only competent in a limited number of scientific fields, if any. As they say, a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing, and no one's better at misinterpreting a technical paper than someone with a little but not enough knowledge.
quote:
I really have nothing invested in this. I'm at a loss to understand why you've gone off the deep end about Wade. He explained why the engineered hypothesis is getting increased attention. That's it.
It is your defence of Wade that has “gone of the deep end”. That’s how I can tell that you are deeply invested.
Pointing out that someone's attacks are unmerited or in error is something I'd do for anyone. If you claimed Hitler had a peg leg I'd say that Hitler did not have a peg leg, and if recent history is any guide you'd accuse me of defending Hitler, and if I persisted in his defense of being deeply invested in defending Hitler.
But of course your accusations wouldn't be true. It's just your MO of attacking whoever you disagree with using made up accusations instead of discussing the evidence and merits behind the ideas.
quote:
None of this is true, either. I have said, and will now say again, I don't have an opinion about which is more likely.
These are contradictory claims.
What are contradictory claims? You didn't quote enough to tell what "none" refers to.
Going back to your Message 98, here's what you said that I was responding to:
PaulK from Message 98 writes:
You take the article as putting the engineered hypothesis on at least a rough par with the natural origin hypothesis, but the evidence is pretty weak and it really needs to be better.
Reading this again I still arrive at the same assessment: none of this is true. I don't think either hypothesis should be considered more likely at this point, but that more study should be done. The evidence for the engineered hypothesis is not "pretty weak" and is more than sufficient to justify a desire for more study and for more information from the Wuhan lab.
By default the natural origin is more likely by far, for reasons I’ve explained.
If you favor the natural origin hypothesis then that's fine. So did I until recently. I'm now keeping an open mind until we have more information.
Indeed, it seems too me that you really want support for the engineered hypothesis which is why you are so determined to defend Wade as an authority (to the point of attacking justified criticism). Certainly you have done nothing to defend his arguments.
You do say.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 100 by PaulK, posted 06-14-2021 12:24 AM PaulK has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 102 by PaulK, posted 06-14-2021 12:32 PM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 103 of 1110 (886892)
06-15-2021 8:50 AM
Reply to: Message 102 by PaulK
06-14-2021 12:32 PM


Re: A Lab Origin for SARS-CoV-2
Thanks for your input.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 102 by PaulK, posted 06-14-2021 12:32 PM PaulK has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 104 by Percy, posted 06-15-2021 12:25 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 104 of 1110 (886894)
06-15-2021 12:25 PM
Reply to: Message 103 by Percy
06-15-2021 8:50 AM


Re: A Lab Origin for SARS-CoV-2
Here's is some additional information for why the engineered hypothesis is recently receiving increasing attention. There have also been developments in favor of the natural origin hypothesis, but the purpose of this post is to make clear why the engineered hypothesis is no longer being dismissed. Much of this is take from Timeline: How the Wuhan lab-leak theory suddenly became credible, but a couple are my own insertions:
  • In February of 2020 Botao Xiao, a molecular biomechanics researcher at South China University, posted the paper The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronovirus that concluded that given other safety mishaps at the lab and the focus of its research that "the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan." He withdrew the paper after Chinese authorities insisted there had been no accident. Xiao was previously a postdoctoral fellow at Springer Lab, which is affiliated with Harvard University.
  • Also in Februrary of 2020, twenty-seven scientists released a statement labeling as conspiracy theories any suggestion that the virus has a non-natural origin, but three signatories have since walked it back to say an accidental origin merits consideration.
  • Quoting the November 2, 2020, entry verbatim:
    quote:
    David A. Relman, a Stanford University microbiologist, writes in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: “The ‘origin story’ is missing many key details, including a plausible and suitably detailed recent evolutionary history of the virus, the identity and provenance of its most recent ancestors, and surprisingly, the place, time, and mechanism of transmission of the first human infection.”
  • Quoting the November 17, 2020, entry:
    quote:
    An influential paper written by Rossana Segreto and Yuri Deigin is published: “The genetic structure of SARS-CoV-2 does not rule out a laboratory origin.” The paper noted that “a natural host, either direct or intermediate, has not yet been identified.” It argues that certain features of the coronavirus “might be the result of lab manipulation techniques such as site-directed mutagenesis. The acquisition of both unique features by SARS-CoV-2 more or less simultaneously is less likely to be natural or caused only by cell/animal serial passage.” The paper concluded: “On the basis of our analysis, an artificial origin of SARS-CoV-2 is not a baseless conspiracy theory that is to be condemned,” referencing the Lancet statement in February.
  • On March 4 of this year scientists issued an open letter to the WHO saying the previous investigation had been flawed and suggesting a much improved one be conducted.
  • In Wade's May 5 piece David Baltimore, a scientist who was once president of CalTech, said, "When I first saw the furin cleavage site in the viral sequence, with its arginine codons, I said to my wife it was the smoking gun for the origin of the virus. These features make a powerful challenge to the idea of a natural origin for SARS2."
  • On May 14 of this year eighteen scientists published a letter in Science calling for more investigation into the two leading hypotheses, saying, "Theories of accidental release from a lab and zoonotic spillover both remain viable. Knowing how COVID-19 emerged is critical for informing global strategies to mitigate the risk of future outbreaks." It described previous consideration of the two hypotheses as not being balanced.
  • On May 17 scientist W. Ian Lipkin of Columbia was reported saying that his mind had changed in light of new information.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 103 by Percy, posted 06-15-2021 8:50 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 115 of 1110 (887867)
08-24-2021 9:57 AM


How Effective Are the Vaccines?
See Covid Breakthrough Hospitalization and Death Rates by State - The New York Times compares hospitalization rates and death rates of the vaccinated against the unvaccinated for 38 states and D.C. but doesn't roll the figures up into an average. There's wide variation between the individual states. For example, if you're unvaccinated then you're only 17 times more likely to be hospitalized for covid-19 in Alaska, but 185 times more likely in Texas. And you're only 7 times more likely to die of covid-19 in Indiana, but 85 times more likely in Texas.
I rolled these numbers up into an average. Across these 38 states and D.C., if you're unvaccinated then you're 42 times more likely to be hospitalized, and 21 times more likely to die.
Unfortunately the figures were gathered before July when the Delta variant became dominant. Perhaps someone knows of a website that has figures for the period after Delta became dominant.
-Percy

Replies to this message:
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Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 120 of 1110 (887877)
08-24-2021 6:38 PM
Reply to: Message 119 by kjsimons
08-24-2021 3:13 PM


They won't take the public health advice to wear masks or get vaccinated, but they'll boil water?
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 119 by kjsimons, posted 08-24-2021 3:13 PM kjsimons has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 121 by kjsimons, posted 08-24-2021 7:09 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 122 by jar, posted 08-24-2021 7:45 PM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 127 of 1110 (887933)
08-26-2021 8:07 AM
Reply to: Message 122 by jar
08-24-2021 7:45 PM


Actually I was thinking of the irony of ignoring advice about airborne disease while accepting advice about waterborne disease.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 122 by jar, posted 08-24-2021 7:45 PM jar has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 129 by ooh-child, posted 08-27-2021 4:07 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 134 of 1110 (888195)
09-09-2021 5:59 PM
Reply to: Message 131 by riVeRraT
09-09-2021 9:25 AM


Your post has already drawn a couple replies, but it's important that accurate virus information get out there, so I'm going to post another.
riVeRraT writes:
I think you mean vaccines which only protect against the symptoms - which is not the case of any of the COVID vaccines available
No that is not what I meant. The science behind what I am saying has been around for a half a century already.
Imperfect Vaccination Can Enhance the Transmission of Highly Virulent Pathogens | PLOS Biology
The article is an endorsement of the importance of vaccinating up to and beyond the point of herd immunity. Anything less increases the likelihood of more virulent strains mutating and spreading through the unvaccinated subpopulation. This is precisely what we've seen happen with the delta strain.
You can't really go by what you hear today about Covid, one because it is being politicized, and 2 because there hasn't been enough actual science done about what is happening.
You don't specify what about covid that you think we can't trust, but there are a few things that we absolutely do know for certain, and that's that these measures if widely followed will eliminate the virus:
  1. Socially distance.
  2. Always wear a mask indoors. Wear one outdoors, too, when in crowds like sports events, concerts, etc. Avoid indoor restaurants and bars. A high quality mask is best. Recent studied have shown surgical masks and N95's to be equally effective.
  3. Get vaccinated.
The poorer the adherence to these guidelines, the longer the virus will hang around, and the greater the chances for the emergence of more virulent strains.
Right now it would appear that the vaccine is saving lives, but is it really?
The data is unambiguous that the vaccine is saving lives. Of all people hospitalized with covid, less than 5% of those who die are vaccinated.
Doesn't anyone remember 30 years or so ago when doctors started prescribing antibiotics less because the overuse of antibiotics can lead to antibiotic resistant bacteria?
As nwr said, you can't analogize vaccines and antibiotics. For one simple example of how different they are, have you ever been prescribed a two-week regimen of vaccine tablets? [A company named Vaxart actually attempted a tablet approach for the virus (they investigated both one high dose tablet and two lower dose tablets a month apart, similar to the shot-style vaccines) but had poor results, though work continues.]
Sounds like the lies of someone who wants people to die.
Comments like these, the memes, and the fallacy about drinking bleach, are what led me to leave this forum for so long. I guess people are still not capable of rational discussion. Due to that fact, I can't really respect the opinions of anyone who behaves like that.
If you're going to say incredibly ignorant things like this, as you did in Message 105:
We are being told to vaccinate to "stop the virus" ~Dr.Fauci
This seems to be a lie.
Sounds like a money making machine to me.
Then you have to man up when people note its ignorance.
Just FYI, I am a Director of Facilities for a very large Nursing Home now.
Despite working in large facilities all my working life, I picked up remarkably little about the management and operations of large facilities. In the same way, a person will learn remarkably little about health and medical issues from working in facilities management at a health care facility.
I worked through this entire pandemic and risked my life to save those of the elderly. I live in NY and had to endure Cuomo sending us Covid infected residents to a facility that is in no way set up to handle such an infectious disease. He put them all at risk, and me and my family.
Many people in many industries have been and still are being placed at risk. Nationally, extremely few elder care facilities were prepared to deal with a virus like covid. The virus swept through assisted living facilities and nursing homes everywhere all across the country. Nationally about 8% of residents died.
I watched people die. I also watched how the vaccine is saving them. I am not anti-vax. The vaccine is good for them, so far, but people are still getting sick and dying.
Vaccines provide a defense against infection, not protection. Viruses are fought by the body's immune system. A virus cannot be fought off until the body detects a viral infection. There's nothing in a vaccine to prevent covid virus from being inhaled into the sinuses or lungs. Once viruses begin invading cells then the immune system of a vaccinated person is already prepped to begin fighting off the virus, thus vaccinated people are much more likely to have no symptoms or only mild symptoms.
An unvaccinated person's immune system still has a lot of work to do once a viral infection is detected. The virus can march through the body unimpeded for the couple weeks it takes the immune system to mount a response.
So do me a favor and all of you take your stupid childish comments and stick them up your ass.
I understand that you were unaware that some of the things you said were ignorant or erroneous at the time you made them, but presumably you know better now.
The title of this thread is "we're saved". I don't see that as a reality. In fact the end result may be worse....or not.
As long as the world remains below herd immunity the possibility exists of the emergence of even more virulent strains. The wealthy nations have not yet internalized that unless they completely cut themselves off from the rest of the world, reaching herd immunity within their borders won't squelch the virus and they'll still suffer periodic outbreaks, perhaps even ones against which the vaccines provide no protection at all.
2 weeks to flatten the curve and herd immunity were both lies.
This was never said by anyone knowledgable. What is true is that if everyone around the world masked up for real for a month it would not just flatten the curve but put an industrial sized dent in it. And herd immunity, which given the delta variant could be somewhere north of 85%, would make any region relatively safe until invaded by hardier variants.
We are just about at herd immunity, and Covid is worse than ever.
As a country we're pretty far from herd immunity. Nationwide we're at 53.4% fully vaccinated, around 30 percentage points away from herd immunity, so nowhere close to it.
So of course covid is worse than ever. As a nation we're doing a terrible job of social distancing, masking up and vaccinating. That the least socially distanced, masked up and vaccinated parts of the country are doing the worst makes clear their importance. And since there was never enough vaccine for the world, the more virulent delta strain has made the situation even worse.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 131 by riVeRraT, posted 09-09-2021 9:25 AM riVeRraT has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 138 by riVeRraT, posted 09-10-2021 9:27 AM Percy has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(5)
Message 140 of 1110 (888259)
09-10-2021 5:00 PM
Reply to: Message 138 by riVeRraT
09-10-2021 9:27 AM


I think a discussion between you and LamarkNewAge would be a real hoot.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 138 by riVeRraT, posted 09-10-2021 9:27 AM riVeRraT has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 145 of 1110 (888848)
10-11-2021 10:33 AM


How Are We Supposed To Feel About Dead Antivaxers?
The article What do all these stories of vaccine denial deaths do to our sense of empathy? discusses how people react to the deaths of those who refuse to get vaccinated. Part of the article focuses on a subreddit forum called the Herman Cain Award, which declares someone a "winner" if they've been vocal online about their anti-vaccine views and then died of the virus.
The forum has gotten aggressive. It used to focus on the famous or at least sort-of famous, but now it takes on anyone. In addition to declaring someone a winner they'll post on the person's social media sites and those of their family and friends.
It does seem a bit much, but how is one supposed to feel about someone who declares that getting vaccinated is a personal choice that doesn't affect anyone else, especially when everyone who is anyone in epidemiology has been spreading the message that the unvaccinated are ten times more likely to become vectors spreading the virus.
Obviously some people are victims of misinformation and/or lack the necessary background to understand the issue, and the article makes the point that persuasion is emotional, not factual.
But despite that government experts provide the necessary confidence in making a pro-vaccine choice, many anti-vaccine people have made it political and declared that that's not their government and they're not their experts.
Herman Cain was a person of considerable accomplishment. He was a businessman, chair of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, an advisor to Bob Dole's presidential campaign, and a presidential candidate himself. On June 20 of last year he attended a no-mask Trump rally in Tulsa and died of covid-19 a little over a month later on July 30.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 146 by jar, posted 10-11-2021 11:18 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 147 by PaulK, posted 10-11-2021 2:27 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 150 of 1110 (888856)
10-13-2021 11:07 AM
Reply to: Message 149 by xongsmith
10-12-2021 2:58 PM


Re: How Are We Supposed To Feel About Dead Antivaxers?
But LNA wasn't totally out in left field. Minority groups do tend toward vaccine hesitancy due to past experience and an inherent distrust of white solutions. Racial diversity was an important goal of the vacine clinical trials, but most people aren't aware of papers like Racial Diversity within COVID-19 Vaccine Clinical Trials: Key Questions and Answers.
Where LNA went wrong was in saying that minorities comprise "most" (his word) anti-vaxers.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 149 by xongsmith, posted 10-12-2021 2:58 PM xongsmith has seen this message but not replied

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 Message 151 by LamarkNewAge, posted 10-14-2021 12:12 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(1)
Message 161 of 1110 (889113)
11-03-2021 7:28 AM


We Have Achieved Herd Immunity
Unfortunately it's immunity from informed scientific advice. Enough people are never going to get vaccinated, mask up and avoid large social gatherings.
I check the covid case numbers everyday, and I think we're in the beginning stages of a fall bump. Too early to be certain, we'll know in another week or two.
--Percy

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


Message 163 of 1110 (889443)
11-27-2021 9:49 AM
Reply to: Message 162 by Tangle
11-26-2021 12:43 PM


Re: Oh Crap...
Oh, that reminds me. A few weeks ago just from following the daily numbers I thought we might be in the early stages of a fall bump, and it looks like we were. My thoughts, given past patterns, are that we'll peak in mid-December and be back to low numbers again between mid-February and mid-March.
--Percy
Edited by Percy, : Typo.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 162 by Tangle, posted 11-26-2021 12:43 PM Tangle has replied

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 Message 164 by Tangle, posted 11-27-2021 11:56 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(2)
Message 171 of 1110 (889500)
12-01-2021 8:23 AM


Anti-vax Christian Network Head Dies of Covid-19
Marcus Lamb, head of Daystar, a large Christian network that discouraged vaccines, dies after getting covid-19, says the Washington Post headline. Lamb was 64. His television network touted anti-vaccine conspiracies and urged its members not to get vaccinated.
--Percy
Edited by Percy, : Fix URL.

Replies to this message:
 Message 172 by DrJones*, posted 12-02-2021 8:34 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied
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Percy
Member
Posts: 22388
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.2


(2)
Message 174 of 1110 (889588)
12-05-2021 5:37 PM


Red Counties Have Far Higher Covid Death Rates
Pro-Trump counties now have far higher COVID death rates : Shots - Health News : NPR, reports NPR. Here's a scatter plot showing declining vaccination rates and increasing death rates the more a county voted for Trump:
Congregating indoors while not wearing masks or getting vaccinated isn't a death sentence. It just increases your likelihood of death by about three times.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 175 by Tanypteryx, posted 12-05-2021 7:03 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

  
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