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Author Topic:   COVID vaccine works - we're saved!
Percy
Member
Posts: 19996
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.0


Message 61 of 70 (885012)
03-19-2021 7:21 AM


Can vaccinated people be spreaders?
Can vaccinated people be spreaders? While jousting with Senator Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) during a congressional hearing yesterday Dr. Anthony Fauci gave the impression that vaccinated people are unlikely spreaders of the wild virus (that's the original version). The CDC has issued guidelines that give a similar impression, saying that vaccinated people can associate closely together without benefit of masks.

But Fauci's justification for wearing masks is the variants that are increasingly circulating in the US. The CDC guidance doesn't appear to take variants into account.

But even concerning just the wild virus I can find nothing online that suggests there is any scientific basis for believing vaccinated people can gather safely together. Studies have not yet been completed that would tell us whether vaccinated people can catch the virus (but would be unlikely to experience significant symptoms) and become spreaders. We do know that it is a characteristic of SARS type viruses that previously infected and vaccinated people can still become infected and become spreaders, i.e., shed virus into the surrounding environment.

So unless Dr. Fauci and the CDC are privy to studies that aren't yet public then their advice is wrong. Concerning fully vaccinated people Dr. Fauci is giving the right advice for the wrong reason, and the CDC is giving the wrong advice. Fully vaccinated people should continue to mask up, wash their hands, avoid large gatherings, etc., otherwise they could easily catch the vaccine (the wild version or the variants) from other vaccinated people and then become spreaders when out and about in public even though masked up and washing their hands. Masks and hand washing are a great help but aren't perfect prophylactics.

The best case scenario is that the completed studies find that fully vaccinated people are unlikely spreaders of the wild virus, but even if that's the eventual finding it won't necessarily hold true for variants, so fully vaccinated people will have to continue practicing safe behavior until the incidence rate in the population drops far below it's current level. We're currently at 17 cases per 100,000 per day. I don't know what a safe level is, but it's certainly below 5, and we're nowhere close to 5 yet.

--Percy


Replies to this message:
 Message 62 by Percy, posted 03-19-2021 7:55 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply
 Message 63 by Phat, posted 03-19-2021 8:21 AM Percy has responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19996
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.0


Message 62 of 70 (885013)
03-19-2021 7:55 AM
Reply to: Message 61 by Percy
03-19-2021 7:21 AM


Re: Can vaccinated people be spreaders?
Here's a little information about the potential for fully vaccinated people to become spreaders from What you need to know about getting vaccinated for Covid, from side effects to how long immunity lasts:

quote:
There’s emerging evidence that fully vaccinated people are less likely to transmit the virus to others, according to the CDC. Some early data from Israel that suggests that the Pfizer vaccine reduces transmission. And in J&J’s trials, they found a 74% reduction in developing asymptomatic infection, which indicates that the vaccine reduces transmission, former FDA commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on March 1.

While this is promising it's important to carefully understand what it is saying. Early indications are that fully vaccinated people can still be spreaders, but at a lower rate, and in the case of the J&J vaccine at a significantly lower rate. How low is low enough to cease precautionary measures will be a function of case rates which are in turn a function of how closely we approach herd immunity.

We are still lacking a great many hard numbers that will be important in guiding behavior (How do we tell when we've reached herd immunity? How well does each vaccine perform against each of the variants? Which variants are prevalent where?), but data is beginning to become available.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 61 by Percy, posted 03-19-2021 7:21 AM Percy has acknowledged this reply

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 15104
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 63 of 70 (885014)
03-19-2021 8:21 AM
Reply to: Message 61 by Percy
03-19-2021 7:21 AM


Re: Can vaccinated people be spreaders?
You bring up a scenario which may prove to be real and potentially troublesome.

I think we collectively just want this pandemic to be over, but the all clear siren has not sounded yet and may not sound for at least another year of enhanced protections.

I remeber back a year ago when this whole thing started and how you uniquely adopted a routine of grocery quarantine, rigorous washing of every item of clothing that you wore outside of the house, and self isolation from society in general. If all Americans had done what you did, we would be farther along today in herd immunity and not anywhere near as many would have died.

I think that mandatory vaccinations is not too far fetched as long as its fully paid for by the government, though as long as they make it available and encourage people to get vaccinated that may be enough.


"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.”
- Criss Jami, Killo

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 61 by Percy, posted 03-19-2021 7:21 AM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 64 by Percy, posted 03-19-2021 12:45 PM Phat has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19996
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.0


Message 64 of 70 (885022)
03-19-2021 12:45 PM
Reply to: Message 63 by Phat
03-19-2021 8:21 AM


Re: Can vaccinated people be spreaders?
Phat writes:

I remember back a year ago when this whole thing started and how you uniquely adopted a routine of grocery quarantine, rigorous washing of every item of clothing that you wore outside of the house, and self isolation from society in general. If all Americans had done what you did, we would be farther along today in herd immunity and not anywhere near as many would have died.

I wasn't unique in these things. I discovered that many people had hit upon very similar routines. We eventually decided that quarantining groceries and mail was unnecessary.

More widely followed and stringent precautionary measures would have slowed our progress toward herd immunity, not hastened it. Without vaccines only high infection rates can create herd immunity.

I didn't self isolate. Over the summer we dined outside with friends, and I play tennis almost every day (it's self distancing) all during the year and so get to socialize frequently. We haven't dined out since October because no outdoor eating is open yet.

It surprises me that we're still doing so bad a job with masks, especially the many people wearing masks that keep falling off their noses. The government should have done whatever it took to flood the country with N95 masks a year ago.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 63 by Phat, posted 03-19-2021 8:21 AM Phat has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 65 by AZPaul3, posted 03-19-2021 1:55 PM Percy has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 5726
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.8


Message 65 of 70 (885030)
03-19-2021 1:55 PM
Reply to: Message 64 by Percy
03-19-2021 12:45 PM


Re: Can vaccinated people be spreaders?
The government should have done whatever it took to flood the country with N95 masks a year ago.

Why? Bozo can't wear a simple cotton mask properly, or at all. Meet the needs of the medical community for N95s, but, I'm thinking your proposal is wasteful. Bozo really doesn't need an N95 sitting on his coat rack that he never uses. His simple cotton mask is adequate especially since he's not going to use it properly if at all.

But the point is taken. Gov't should have done much more to provide the needed mask for the Medicos when this whole thing started.


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 64 by Percy, posted 03-19-2021 12:45 PM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 66 by Percy, posted 03-19-2021 4:38 PM AZPaul3 has responded
 Message 68 by dwise1, posted 03-19-2021 6:34 PM AZPaul3 has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19996
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.0


Message 66 of 70 (885035)
03-19-2021 4:38 PM
Reply to: Message 65 by AZPaul3
03-19-2021 1:55 PM


Re: Can vaccinated people be spreaders?
One thing I keep forgetting to mention concerning masks: masks cannot seal against the face of anyone with a beard that crosses the mask seal. A very old study, Effect of facial hair on the face seal of negative-pressure respirators - PubMed, says, "An average two hundred and forty-six (246) fold drop in protection was experienced by bearded employees." The study was actually of respirators. Most cloth masks create a poor seal even under ideal circumstances and would perform much worse.

I wasn't able to find any studies, but my guess about why states that mask up like New York perform worse than southern states that don't mask up like Florida is that the cloth and surgical masks most people wear during the inside months of winter offer far worse protection than spending more of your time outside with no mask in the south. Give every mask wearer in New York an N95 and I bet the case rate would drop quickly.

Just found a study of a variety of mask types: Masks Save Lives: Duke Study Confirms Which Ones Work Best | Hartford HealthCare. It only tested the masks protection against droplets and rated the masks from best to worst like this:

  1. Fitted N95, no valve
  2. 3-layer surgical mask
  3. Cotton-polypropylene-cotton mask
  4. 2-layer polypropylene apron mask
  5. 2-layer cotton, pleated style mask
  6. 2-layer cotton, pleated style mask
  7. Valved N95 mask
  8. 2-layer cotton, Olson style mask
  9. 1-layer Maxima AT mask
  10. 1-layer cotton, pleated style mask
  11. 2-layer cotton, pleated style mask
  12. Knitted mask
  13. Double-layer bandana
  14. Gaiter-style neck fleece

Better would be an epidemiological study that surveyed people with covid-19 as to their mask wearing habits.

--Percy


This message is a reply to:
 Message 65 by AZPaul3, posted 03-19-2021 1:55 PM AZPaul3 has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 67 by AZPaul3, posted 03-19-2021 6:15 PM Percy has responded

  
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 5726
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 4.8


(1)
Message 67 of 70 (885036)
03-19-2021 6:15 PM
Reply to: Message 66 by Percy
03-19-2021 4:38 PM


Re: Can vaccinated people be spreaders?
The N95s are most effective in environments where there is a higher viral load, is it not?

Most of society does not dwell in such an environment.

Other than the best, what would be adequate given most circumstances?

For ol' Joe Schmuk who wouldn't know a virus from an cephalopod the physics of the situation with particle size and mask seal is useless. Joe's a good guy. He'll do what we tell him. He's going to the grocery store and maybe a stop at Jack's Burger, Pizza, and Sushi stand for a take out. He is not partial to wearing a hazmat suit.

What do we tell him?


Eschew obfuscation. Habituate elucidation.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 66 by Percy, posted 03-19-2021 4:38 PM Percy has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 70 by Percy, posted 03-20-2021 10:07 AM AZPaul3 has not yet responded

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 4479
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 5.7


(1)
Message 68 of 70 (885037)
03-19-2021 6:34 PM
Reply to: Message 65 by AZPaul3
03-19-2021 1:55 PM


Re: Can vaccinated people be spreaders?
Gov't should have done much more to provide the needed mask for the Medicos when this whole thing started.

No could do. At first it looked like the blue states were the ones affected, so fuck them. Then when the red states were also getting affected, nobody was paying attention anymore so fuck them too. It's the Republican way to always seek to punish the victims! (the authoritarian follower, actually, as discovered by psychology professor (ret.) Bob Altemeyer)

Am I the only one who saw this? Trump was having a photo op in the Oval Office with front-line nurses and he started bragging about how because of him they were getting all to protective personal equipment (PPE) they needed. So one of the nurses started schooling him on how they were still having to deal with the PPE shortages that he had never done anything about. He just stared at her vacantly, like a deer caught in the headlights.

 
As for the masks not being worn properly. There was (and most likely still is) a web site with drawings that draw an analogy with leaving your nose hanging out there for all to see (enough foreshadowing?).

The two drawings showed an adult male wearing his underwear correctly and incorrectly (with his penis hanging out over the waistband. Now I cannot see an idiot with his filthy contagious nose hanging out without that penis visual popping up in my head).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 65 by AZPaul3, posted 03-19-2021 1:55 PM AZPaul3 has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 69 by jar, posted 03-20-2021 8:40 AM dwise1 has not yet responded

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33256
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 4.6


Message 69 of 70 (885044)
03-20-2021 8:40 AM
Reply to: Message 68 by dwise1
03-19-2021 6:34 PM


It's good to be SAVED!
Hidalgo County is part of the Rio Grande Valley, and area of Texas that is fast growing and historically votes Democratic. It's the home of Lloyd Bentsen.

The population from the last census is 800,000 so it will be in reality considerably more once this latest census is reported.

It is a relatively poor area with a high percentage of older and retired people as well as a large Hispanic culture.

So far Hidalgo County has been allocated (in Texas it's the State that allocates vaccines to areas) a grand total of 54,000 first doses and almost 30,000 second doses.

We are still averaging over 400 new cases every day.

And it's Spring Break with the beaches and bars all fully opened and the State removed any mask mandates.

There is still no online or over the phone vaccine pre-registry for the County.

All of the organized vaccine registries are only announced at the last minute and are ones where it's necessary to drive to a location.

It's comforting to know we are saved.

I was finally able to get a first dose of the Pfizer vaccine but only because my Walgreens pharmacist knew I'd been unable to do so and so had his staff call be if someone canceled an appointment. I have been able to schedule a second dose through the CVS network.

But all of this is so totally fucked up and **********.

For over a year it has been obvious that there would be vaccines at some time.

For over a year it has been obvious that some registry to set and allocate vaccines would be needed.

And for over a year no State, no Federal Agency, no County Government set up a simply damn database so that a registry could be created with names, contact, ages, health conditions so that as soon as a vaccine did become available distribution could begin in an orderly and efficient manner.

The bill always get paid.

This time the bill was only a half million lives.

A mere pittance and mostly from the worthless Blue voters and POC and poor and share croppers so a bargain.

Edited by jar, : missed one line


My Website: My Website

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 Message 68 by dwise1, posted 03-19-2021 6:34 PM dwise1 has not yet responded

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 19996
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.0


Message 70 of 70 (885048)
03-20-2021 10:07 AM
Reply to: Message 67 by AZPaul3
03-19-2021 6:15 PM


Re: Can vaccinated people be spreaders?
AZPaul3 writes:

The N95s are most effective in environments where there is a higher viral load, is it not?

The most effective mask, the N95 in the study, would top the list in any environment. It wouldn't provide much benefit in a low or virus-free environment, but it would still be the best mask, and it would only increase in benefit as the virus levels increased.

Other than the best, what would be adequate given most circumstances?

Define adequate. For example, is reducing the chances of infection by 30% adequate? Those happy with those odds need only wear a single-layer cloth mask.

I think those wearing the common types of cloth masks are unaware how spectacularly poor performers they are, and the public health arms of the various levels of government, especially the highest levels, should be providing accurate information to the public.

It is believed that 30% of the spread in the US now is the UK variant. If it's 50% more transmissible (the range of increased transmissibility was estimated at 43-90% by a recent study: Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England) then people wearing a 30% effective cloth mask are more vulnerable to this variant while wearing a mask than they were to the original wild variety when not wearing a mask.

or ol' Joe Schmuk who wouldn't know a virus from an cephalopod the physics of the situation with particle size and mask seal is useless. Joe's a good guy. He'll do what we tell him. He's going to the grocery store and maybe a stop at Jack's Burger, Pizza, and Sushi stand for a take out. He is not partial to wearing a hazmat suit.

What do we tell him?

Ideally public health officials would tell him the truth, that a cloth mask provides only a small amount of protection. This is in essence what the public *was* told recently with all the suggestions reported by the news media that unless you're wearing an N95 mask that you should double mask.

I'll walk out on a limb and predict that the US is going to experience another surge in case rates before there's enough vaccination to start tamping things down. That surge may have already begun, but it will certainly happen within a month. It should be a smaller surge somewhat less than around half as bad as this past winter.

Using recent but not current figures, the US over-18 population is around 255 million. If the single-dose J&J vaccine plays only a minor role then we need 510 million doses. We've administered 120 million doses so far with 390 million to go. At the current rate of 2.5 million doses/day (where we may have recently leveled off, but it's hard to tell yet) it will take 156 days, which takes us to August 23rd.

But probably just vaccinating the over-18 population is not enough. We should also vaccinate those less in age, let's say down to age 10, which adds 40 million people requiring two doses each for a total of 590 million doses. At 2.5 million doses/day it will take another 188 days, which takes us to September 24th.

If we're able to pick up the vaccination rate to, say, 3.5 million per day on average from here on out then it will take until July 9th for all adults and until August 1st for everyone over 10.

The positive effects of vaccination will be lessened by pockets of the country that largely refuse them.

I'm a little disappointed in my own state. We seem to have leveled off at about 10,000 doses per day. Vaccinating everyone over 10 would be about 2.3 million doses. We've administered 440,000 doses so far with 1.9 million to go. 10,000 doses per day is 186 days, which puts us at September 22nd. If we could somehow double our rate we'd be done by mid-June. Accelerating the dosage rate like this could save in the neighborhood of 300 lives.

--Percy

Edited by Percy, : Fix math error.

Edited by Percy, : Use more accurate number for US population.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 67 by AZPaul3, posted 03-19-2021 6:15 PM AZPaul3 has not yet responded

  
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