3/2 odds -- Fades into obscurity 5/1 odds -- Gets 5% of the vote in the 2024 presidential race and ruins the Republican candidate's chances of winning. 1,000/1 odds -- RNC Chair 10,000/1 odds -- wins 2024 presidential election
If Trump had not pushed the Big Lie, hosted the rally, and fed the Big Lie to an audience he knew was planning violence, the raiding of the Capitol would not have happened.
"The President of the United States summoned this mob, assembled the mob, and lit the flame of this attack. Everything that followed was his doing. None of this would have happened without the President. The President could have immediately and forcefully intervened to stop the violence. He did not. There has never been a greater betrayal by a President of the United States of his office and his oath to the Constitution."--Liz Cheney (a Republican, by the way)
It was pointed out (correctly?) that the prosecution was using videos of the riot as evidence , and very little from the Jan 6 speech was examined.
If you are going to accuse someone of inciting an insurrection then you need to establish that there was an insurrection. The videos are evidence of just that.
The speech itself was just a part of the overall attempt to incite violence. The months long campaign of lying to his followers, the planning of the event, how the event was advertised, and so forth. Those are just as important. As with many things in life, context is important.
Trump told his followers that Congress was taking their country away and that they had to march down to the Capitol and stop them. Who was surprised by the violence after that point? Not I. You could practically predict violence with near 100% accuracy after the months long campaign that was capped by that speech.