Trump has presented the GOP with four scenarios for the near term:
Sc 1) Trump forms a third party, the ‘Patriot’ party. He has talked of doing this in retaliation against the Republicans who didn’t support his attempt to overturn the election. Remember when in the first Republican candidate debate of the 2016 presidential race, the 17 candidates were asked if they would form a third party if they didn’t win the nomination, 16 said definitely ‘no’, but one, Trump of course, was very equivocal. If Trump does this, it will not only scuttle any chances the Republicans have for the 2024 presidential election, but many of his most ardent political sycophants will probably join him, splitting down ballot votes as well. Even his Republican politician supporters who stay with that party will be put into a bind as to which candidate they endorse. Lindsey, Teddy, Josh, et. al. will lose votes whichever way they go. Trump has recently disavowed this third party story, but we all know he changes direction faster than a rooster weather vane in a hurricane.
Sc 2) Trump stays in the Republican party and starts campaigning for and wins the 2024 presidential nomination. This will lose the Republicans a huge mass of the independent vote and many non-Trumpian Republican votes in both the presidential and down ballot races. Many of these voters will just not vote at all and the Republicans will have a major get-out-the-vote problem.
Sc 3) Trump stays in the Republican party and starts campaigning for and loses the 2024 presidential nomination. Now the Republicans lose the Trump core supporters - maybe still 10 to 20 million strong - again both in the presidential and down ballot races, and again a big drop in voter turnout.
Sc 4) Enough Republicans in the senate, aware of the above three scenarios, vote to convict Trump and disallow him from future national political office. This again will lose them the core Trump supporter votes and will be disastrous in the 2022 midterms. Might even get a few Republican field offices attacked. And Trump would no doubt challenge this through endless court battles bringing his brilliant cadre of lawyers to bear.
Re: The mainstream media says that ONLY Trump could hold Biden to 79% of black male vote
Trump is History.
Apparently Kevin McCarthy would disagree. He’s been spending time a Mar-a-Lago canoodling with Trump, presumably strategizing on how the Republicans can retake the house in 2022.
The Republicans have the option of continuing to exalt Trump and his brand of Republicanism and thus keep hold of his core supporters but risk loosing independents and moderate Republicans, or forsake Trump and Trumpism to hold onto the independents/moderates but losing the core Trumpers. It looks like they have solidly chosen the former option, deciding it’s easier to find some way to convince the indies/mods to stick with the Republicans than the other way around. After all, the core Trumpers are quite fanatical and unforgiving. Either way, their chances of winning many house seats seem pretty slim. Their best chance would be if Biden's administration is a serious failure. But even then, Biden could make a pretty convincing case that Trump and the Republicans left him with a major disaster to clean up and it will take 8 years and solid congressional support to do so.