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Author Topic:   Deflation And Hyperinflation. Could It Happen Here?
Phat
Member
Posts: 18298
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 1 of 33 (884280)
02-04-2021 3:41 PM


jar claims that I listen to shills and quacks...con men all. I say he doesn't see the handwriting on the wall.
Note this article from respectable magazine, Forbes:
Hyperinflation: Will America Dodge The Bullet?
When I seee stuff like this, my inner intuitiveness confirms its validity. Call me arrogant, but I think I see a scenario which mainstrtem academia misses.
How you all see it as life as usual, I see as an apocalyptic scenario. Why is that? Am I that smart or am I that delusional? Or are you?
Virtually every article that I read says that we likely will have a deflationary scenario followed by an inflationary....and even hyper-inflationary one.
Comments?

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.- Dr.John Lennox
The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.
- Criss Jami, Killo
The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him. Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).

Replies to this message:
 Message 8 by Percy, posted 02-11-2021 10:31 AM Phat has replied
 Message 9 by ringo, posted 02-11-2021 11:10 AM Phat has not replied
 Message 18 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-12-2021 11:17 PM Phat has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18298
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 3 of 33 (884310)
02-09-2021 11:22 AM
Reply to: Message 2 by jar
02-04-2021 4:12 PM


Handwriting On Wall Is A Metaphor
Seeing the signs indicating that such a scenario is likely to occur. Anyone with intelligence of even a minor degree could discern the likely signs that the economy of the US dollar and the soundness of our financial system is at least being tested.
Or perhaps you simply see the bill being paid at the expense of those foolish virgins who did not bother to refill their lamps.
I never liked your assessment that the US as a whole would clearly survive and that only some of us would get wiped out to pay the damnable bill that in your opinion wont tank everybody but only a select group.

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.- Dr.John Lennox
The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.
- Criss Jami, Killo
The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him. Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).

This message is a reply to:
 Message 2 by jar, posted 02-04-2021 4:12 PM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 4 by jar, posted 02-09-2021 12:31 PM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18298
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 5 of 33 (884313)
02-10-2021 12:27 AM
Reply to: Message 4 by jar
02-09-2021 12:31 PM


Re: Handwriting On Wall Is A Metaphor
quote:
This Week: Month: Year
Ago
Fed Funds Rate (Current target rate 0.00-0.25) 0.25 0.25 1.75
What it means: The interest rate at which banks and other depository institutions lend money to each other, usually on an overnight basis. The law requires banks to keep a certain percentage of their customer's money on reserve, where the banks earn no interest on it. Consequently, banks try to stay as close to the reserve limit as possible without going under it, lending money back and forth to maintain the proper level.
How it's used: Like the federal discount rate, the federal funds rate is used to control the supply of available funds and hence, inflation and other interest rates. Raising the rate makes it more expensive to borrow. That lowers the supply of available money, which increases the short-term interest rates and helps keep inflation in check. Lowering the rate has the opposite effect, bringing short-term interest rates down.
So now that they are low, inflation is a distinct possibility. Im telling you it will be closer to hyperinflation until the dollar finds its true level in relation to other currencies. The US middle class will get decimated...and all to pay that stupid bill. We oughta protest. The whole world must pay it.
Edited by Phat, : No reason given.

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.- Dr.John Lennox
The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.
- Criss Jami, Killo
The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him. Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).

This message is a reply to:
 Message 4 by jar, posted 02-09-2021 12:31 PM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 6 by Tangle, posted 02-10-2021 3:33 AM Phat has not replied
 Message 7 by jar, posted 02-10-2021 7:19 AM Phat has not replied
 Message 10 by AZPaul3, posted 02-11-2021 4:26 PM Phat has replied
 Message 16 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-12-2021 7:45 PM Phat has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18298
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 11 of 33 (884333)
02-12-2021 7:47 AM
Reply to: Message 10 by AZPaul3
02-11-2021 4:26 PM


Financial Charlatans & Religious Charletans
I took your advice, but have my beliefs on the direction the world is heading. We will of course try and keep it together and I DO agree that moderation is wise. Biden has other remarks:
Biden warns China will 'eat our lunch' on infrastructure spending
It seems that jar is right in that the US needs to find better ways to compete and quit living in the past. The slogan, rather than "Make America Great Again" should be more along the lines of "Make America Great. For Once![

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.- Dr.John Lennox
The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.
- Criss Jami, Killo
The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him. Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).

This message is a reply to:
 Message 10 by AZPaul3, posted 02-11-2021 4:26 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 12 by jar, posted 02-12-2021 8:26 AM Phat has not replied
 Message 13 by Percy, posted 02-12-2021 11:44 AM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18298
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 20 of 33 (884378)
02-14-2021 2:36 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by Percy
02-11-2021 10:31 AM


A Bit Off Topic
Percy writes:
You've just introduced yourself as a topic of discussion. I won't comment on how smart you are, but we who have come to know you know that you're not analytical, rarely synthesizing a set of facts into a rational conclusion. Ideas either make sense to you or they don't, independent of reality.
Guilty. I do tend to go against the grain of logic and reason. The jury is still out on reality.
When it comes to spiritual beliefs, I go with what I have experienced. I cannot claim to know anything. jar always points out that there is no evidence for a Holy Spirit or a spiritual "war" and chalks it up to ignorant believers and con men. I will agtree that there are many con men in organized religion. I see the charlatans and know how to test what they claim with scripture. My critics go a step farthere and dismiss the ones I trust as part of the group.
Look, we have no evidencee apart from experience. I will show you a video of alleged deliverences from demonic influence. Feel free to question it, doubt it, and flat out accuse the participants as a fraud. I dont see evidence that they are acting. If they are, they are good actors.
EXHIBIT A:
EXHIBIT BDifferent pastor)
I doubt that many of you will bother listening to the 2nd video (a podcast) but I'm guessing that you will instantly label these ministers as willful con men. I do not get that same definite judgement, and the reason why is because you have never seen such stuff in real life whereas I have. (Plus you stick with lack of evidence as your belief)
This relates to inflation/depression/collapse only in that such a belief system globally may precipitate such a collapse.
And I grant that my extreme beliefs are illogical.
LETS TAKE THIS LINE OF DISCUSSION OVER HERE: Message 170
Edited by Phat, : No reason given.
Edited by Phat, : No reason given.

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.- Dr.John Lennox
The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.
- Criss Jami, Killo
The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him. Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).

This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by Percy, posted 02-11-2021 10:31 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 21 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-14-2021 3:01 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied
 Message 28 by ringo, posted 02-23-2021 11:28 AM Phat has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18298
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 22 of 33 (884384)
02-14-2021 3:49 PM
Reply to: Message 17 by LamarkNewAge
02-12-2021 8:38 PM


Re: Another general babble post.
Keep in mind too that the value of stocks and bitcoins is measured in dollars. So which asset is actually tied to reality?

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.- Dr.John Lennox
The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.
- Criss Jami, Killo
The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him. Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).

This message is a reply to:
 Message 17 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-12-2021 8:38 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 23 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-14-2021 4:02 PM Phat has not replied
 Message 24 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-14-2021 4:07 PM Phat has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18298
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 25 of 33 (884495)
02-22-2021 1:45 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by Percy
02-12-2021 11:44 AM


Re: Financial Charlatans & Religious Charlatans
Percy writes:
Better and more informed perspectives are called for. The US should be placed in the context of the whole world. The country's goal, however expressed in a slogan, should be economic opportunity, justice, fairness and healthcare for all.
Don't abandon your topic, which mentions both deflation and hyperinflation. You say little about deflation, but that possibility seems very real given how close to zero interest rates are, and given that the economy won't be mostly free of virus constraints for perhaps another six months.
And are you still including hyperinflation as a realistic possibility, defined as inflation exceeding 13,000% annually?
For now, I've backed off of suggesting hyperinflation, but I will introduce you to 4 "financial charlatens" who have what I consider to be reputable arguments regarding the demise of the US debt bubble.
I realize that many here at EvC want me to express what I present in my own words, but I simply cant at this time explain is as well as I hear it explained.
Im not demanding that everyone watch my videos, which many of you consider to be videos of Financial Charlatans & Religious Charlatans but I will honestly tell you that these people whom I select are to the best of my limited knowledge,intuition, and gut feeling to be at least considered without being written off as con-men. (And this is what I dislike about jars approach) He dismisses anything that challenges his assumptions. Granted Percy, I do that also, so I will plead guilty. But if you have a minute, I would appreciate a review of what my guys say. I will tell everyone here at the Forum that I do and have listened to some of what your guys say, even though I am dogmatically and practically opposed to what they "preach".

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.- Dr.John Lennox
The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.
- Criss Jami, Killo
The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him. Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).

This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by Percy, posted 02-12-2021 11:44 AM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 30 by Percy, posted 02-24-2021 9:57 AM Phat has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18298
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 27 of 33 (884513)
02-22-2021 6:46 PM
Reply to: Message 26 by AZPaul3
02-22-2021 3:53 PM


Re: The Baskets Are Coming!
Well what do you know???!!! You and I actually agree on something. I think it will happen quicker than you predict, but wouldn't mind being wrong about that at all!

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.- Dr.John Lennox
The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.
- Criss Jami, Killo
The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him. Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).

This message is a reply to:
 Message 26 by AZPaul3, posted 02-22-2021 3:53 PM AZPaul3 has not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18298
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 29 of 33 (884539)
02-23-2021 2:11 PM
Reply to: Message 28 by ringo
02-23-2021 11:28 AM


Re: A Bit Off Topic
ringo writes:
We have collective experience - which can be objective
I'm glad to see that you admit that collective experience can be objective.
Lets keep this thread focused on Deflation and Hyperinflation.
LETS TAKE THIS LINE OF DISCUSSION OVER HERE: Message 170
I apologize for allowing it to drift off topic.
Edited by Phat, : added redirection link

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.- Dr.John Lennox
The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.
- Criss Jami, Killo
The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him. Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).

This message is a reply to:
 Message 28 by ringo, posted 02-23-2021 11:28 AM ringo has seen this message but not replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 18298
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.1


Message 33 of 33 (884659)
03-01-2021 8:56 AM
Reply to: Message 31 by LamarkNewAge
02-28-2021 7:33 PM


Re: I was trying to find a search on somebody, Phat. Are you familiar with Cliff Ford?
LNA writes:
This discussion got derailed earlier; posters were wrong to make it sound like your OP predictions were contrary to standard economic theory.
Just make your case, while ignoring the generic (endless here, it seems) insults.
Yes I agree. Lets stick to this topic. The demons can be dealt with elsewhere.
LNA writes:
Inflation is not synonymous with the dollar's value against foreign currencies.
And the typical order of events generally has been inflation FIRST , then deflation SECOND.
But I should point out that a lot of wealth in the country will be in land, buildings, and stocks. It is not STOCKS & BONDS but stocks, bonds, buildings, land, etc.(...)The population has grown, to today's levels,and now the stolen, claimed, sold, resold land ( yes, LAND) is surely the greatest chunk of the gross domestic asset total . Land values are explosive and much higher than ever.
I really wonder just how much punch an inflation increase throws nowadays. The somewhat diminished importance of inflation might explain the lack of it. It might be that it is just not so scary anymore, and perception drives values of so many assets. The only thing to fear is, well ...fear.
As I pointed out before, the VALUE of any asset...be it land, gold, or a 1940 Rolls Royce...is measured (by us at least) in dollars.
Remember when economists talked about bubbles?
LNA writes:
What about the "crypto currency " Bitcoin. It went from less than $500 a coin,10 years ago, to $20,000 today.
40 times the value and while the $ had very little inflation , so there were no air bloating effects to explain such a shoot-out.
Granted the dollar is on a very grand scale compared to many assets it will be measured against. A government announcing a big federal asset investment will shoot the value of the targeted asset so fast that the purchase will come with an expensive premium.
So what is the point?
Getting back to bubbles.
quote:
An economic bubble, also known as a market bubble or price bubble, occurs when securities are traded at prices considerably higher than their *intrinsic value, followed by a ‘burst’ or ‘crash’, when prices tumble. The term is commonly used when talking about the property market (housing bubble).
*The intrinsic value of a security is what it is really worth, its actual worth, rather than its market price or book value.

Wiki says this:
Economic Bubble
Wiki writes:
Simply put, economic bubbles often occur when too much money is chasing too few assets, causing both good assets and bad assets to appreciate excessively beyond their fundamentals to an unsustainable level. Once the bubble bursts, the fall in prices causes the collapse of unsustainable investment schemes (especially speculative and/or Ponzi investments, but not exclusively so), which leads to a crisis of consumer (and investor) confidence that may result in a financial panic and/or financial crisis; if there is monetary authority like a central bank, it may be forced to take a number of measures in order to soak up the liquidity in the financial system or risk a collapse of its currency. This may involve actions like bailouts of the financial system, but also others that reverse the trend of monetary accommodation, commonly termed forms of 'contractionary monetary policy'.
You mentioned bitcoin.
Citi: Bitcoin at ‘Tipping Point’ as Institutions Come on Board Seems the big money is flirting with this ubiquitous cryptocurrency.
Personally I dont trust it. Anything that goes up that fast could and would crash just as fast.
Today's value, according to Yahoo Finance: $48,182.28. I prefer Gold and Silver as counter-cyclical investments. They say to keep your friends close and your enemies closer. Lets ask Google how much gold China owns: (Unofficially much more than Officially)

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.- Dr.John Lennox
The whole war between the atheist and the theist comes down to this: the atheist believes a 'what' created the universe; the theist believes a 'who' created the universe.
- Criss Jami, Killo
The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him. Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).

This message is a reply to:
 Message 31 by LamarkNewAge, posted 02-28-2021 7:33 PM LamarkNewAge has not replied

  
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