Understanding through Discussion


Welcome! You are not logged in. [ Login ]
EvC Forum active members: 63 (9072 total)
594 online now:
AZPaul3, candle2, jar, kjsimons, PaulK, Tangle, Tanypteryx, vimesey (8 members, 586 visitors)
Newest Member: FossilDiscovery
Post Volume: Total: 893,161 Year: 4,273/6,534 Month: 487/900 Week: 11/182 Day: 11/28 Hour: 0/1


Thread  Details

Email This Thread
Newer Topic | Older Topic
  
Author Topic:   2024 hints and (developing) indicators. Election thread.
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 1 of 13 (889559)
12-04-2021 1:50 PM


It is way early, but there has been some polling.

Biden has a 43.7% approval rating and 51% disapproval rating, based on the 538 site's average.

Trump is at 41.4% average approval and 53% disapproval.

(I very much hope Trump does not run, as I support Rand Paul. He is the only Republican candidate I would vote for, unless Democrats are stupid enough to pick a 2016-type warmonger)

(I might be more inclined to support other Republicans if Democrats end up developing the dangerous anti-free speech angle into a full-blown assault. I do not know enough about the Democratic positioning yet, and I hope this Jan 6/ Facebook stuff is just a short lived technique that is only going to be used in the feud against Trump)

There have been early polls taken, in battleground states, which show Trump winning all 5. It also polled support for Biden's position, on 10 key issues, verses Trump's position. It seems Trump scored a knockout, on all 10 issues, in all 5 states, but the poll was an internal Trump-funded poll. 538 got the results.

(438 is Nate Silvers site)


Replies to this message:
 Message 3 by xongsmith, posted 12-04-2021 4:09 PM LamarkNewAge has taken no action
 Message 5 by Sarah Bellum, posted 12-27-2021 7:04 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 4 of 13 (890026)
12-22-2021 12:44 AM


Christian Cillizza: Democrats have a "major problem" with Hispanic voters
December 2021

Hispanic voters are split 37 to 37 on who they plan to vote for in the 2022 midterms.

In 2024, Trump vs. Biden equals a 44-43 race among Hispanic voters.

Imagine a Rand Paul verses Biden race:

Paul would smash him ( I don't dislike Biden, and I admire him for pulling out of Afghanistan)


  
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 6 of 13 (890149)
12-27-2021 7:45 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by Sarah Bellum
12-27-2021 7:04 PM


What do the people of Afghanistan consider to be a "debacle"?
We don't know, do we?

(Nobody in the USA is asking them, sadly)

So let's get the hell out of THEIR country.

They can decide whether something is wrong or right, and they can use their own sliding scale - a relatively less distorted/unbalanced sliding scale.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 5 by Sarah Bellum, posted 12-27-2021 7:04 PM Sarah Bellum has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 12 by Sarah Bellum, posted 01-29-2022 2:59 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 7 of 13 (890192)
12-28-2021 10:38 PM


Interesting Nevada Senate Race in 2022 (Democratic incumbent)
Nevada could be interesting because exit polls showed Trump won the Hispanic male vote verses Biden.

Trump only lost by 2%, in Nevada, in both 2016 and 2020

The Democratic incumbent is defending against a young man named Adam Laxalt.

I remember watching the hoard of moderate Republicans, on CNN, in 2008, lament the right wing turn of the party. There was disgust, at the hateful turn in politics.

There was a frequent guest, Michelle Laxalt, who smiled and talked about her late moderate father, the former Nevada Senator Pete Laxalt.

In 2013, she released information about her son, Adam. He was in his mid-20s. She said she slept with long-serving New Mexico Senator Pete Dominici, and she got impregnated. He offered to pay child support, but she preferred the relationship to be kept secret. She refused the support.

Now Adam has been a statewide elected official and he is running to defeat the Democratic incumbent Senator.

This is a major race to watch. Especially the Hispanic vote.

(Polls show that the Republican party has the edge in the Senate race, but it is early. The Democratic incumbent is trailing Laxalt)

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


Replies to this message:
 Message 8 by xongsmith, posted 12-28-2021 11:44 PM LamarkNewAge has taken no action

  
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 10 of 13 (890332)
01-01-2022 4:01 PM


68% of Latinos oppose the border wall. Only 30% support for it.
Cubans support it at a 54% rate, and Puerto Ricans are at 45% support

Both groups are from a class of Hispanic-ethnic people that are either born U.S. citizens or will have legal residence in the USA if they "escape" (from Cuba) & arrive here.

Selfish, indeed, but do note that only 30%, of an ethic group that is 19% of the population, support the wall that all too many white Democrats disgracefully supported.

Tear down this (racist) wall, Mr. Biden!

(And where is your support for "millions more" immigrants per year? Like you said during the campaign, in 2020?)

(You look like somebody who will loose this white man's vote. Honestly)

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


  
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 11 of 13 (890343)
01-02-2022 11:03 AM


And a 2019 poll showed 87% of blacks opposed the wall3
So 2 big Democratic constituencies strongly oppose the wall.

33% of the nation is either black or Hispanic.

Democrats better not take human beings as some sort of "grant" at the ballot box.


  
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 13 of 13 (891417)
01-29-2022 4:01 PM
Reply to: Message 12 by Sarah Bellum
01-29-2022 2:59 PM


Re: What do the people of Afghanistan consider to be a "debacle"?
Only the American people get to decide. Sarah.

RNC national chairman, Michael Steel, went against the grain of his (fascist controlled) party, around 2009, and told Republicans to back away from supporting the Afghanistan conflict. It was shocking. He attempted to urge Republicans to make it the "Democratic (party) war".

The ultra-fascist wing (then, the dominant position) went ballistic.

Liz Cheney and Wiliam Kristol went for Steel's head.

Just like they went after Steel, in 2006, when he attacked his white Democratic Senate opponent, Ben Cardin (the eventual winner, despite Steel taking 30% of the black vote) for his anti-crack cocaine votes.

Ben Cardin is a good, decent, man and he respected me when I called his office (many times), but he opposed the Iran nuclear deal. Michael Steel came to be a movement conservative against the "war party" - Democrats today.

Governor Joe Manchin (D-WV) won 70% of the vote in his 2008 reelection race, then Robert Byrd died. Manchin had a tough race to win the U.S. Senate Special election seat, in 2010. Democrats get about 25% of the vote in Presidential elections, on his state. Hillary Clinton got 26%. Manchin had a slight 5% lead against a Republican, according to the polls. Democrats got clobbered.

Manchin ran an anti-war, pro labor ( truely pro worker, in policy & rhetoric) campaign.

He won 54% of the vote, while Republicans gained 60 house seats w/ 6 Senate seats.

Make the case, and you might just win the race, even in tough times.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 12 by Sarah Bellum, posted 01-29-2022 2:59 PM Sarah Bellum has seen this message

  
Newer Topic | Older Topic
Jump to:


Copyright 2001-2018 by EvC Forum, All Rights Reserved

™ Version 4.1
Innovative software from Qwixotic © 2022