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Author Topic:   2022 house elections.
LamarkNewAge 
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Message 1 of 54 (891419)
01-29-2022 6:36 PM


I think Democrats have a 222 to 213 majority.

What member's races are most in play?

Maine congressman Jared Golden. Democrat:

Trump won his district by 7 points, in 2020 - the most Republican seat, for a Democratic party incumbent. Golden won the seat, in 2018, which Trump won by 11 (in 16), by running on an anti-war, pro single-payer healthcare, platform. He was described as a big Sanders supporter in 2016, who voted for Trump in the general.

Golden lost the November 2020 general election, to conservative Republican incumbent, Beuce Poliquin, 46% to 45%. But Maine, in 2016, became the first state to implement Instant Runoff Voting, and it was by voter referendum. It turned out that about 90% of third-party voters selected Golden as choice # 2, so golden won 51-49.

The Center for Votung and Democracy promoted this landmark vote reform for decades.

Golden has been forced, due to the dreadful turn of the Democratic party, to vote against the leadership as often as possible; against Nancy Pelosi's speakership, against gun control (though he was a big supporter in the past), against Medicare-for-all (though he cosponsored it in 2019), against Trump's 2020 impeachment (he supported the 2021 impeachment, however), against Build Back Better (due to $400 billion in tax breaks for the wealthy, and not enough progressive program spending),etc.

He won his reelection race, in 2020, 53 to 47.

The pro-labor, anti-war progressive is in the fight of his life, and that says alot for a veteran of both Iraq & Afghanistan.

(I predict that his race MIGHT decide which party controls the House)

Texas Congressman Vincent Gonzales. Democrat.

Trump won his Rio Grande Valley district by 3%. Actually Trump lost by 3%, in 2020 (Gonzales won by 3 against his Republican opponent), but Republicans immediately set about to create a new "GOP district" in the Rio Grande Valley, after the 2020 results encouraged the idea.

The tradeoff was to make another Rio Grande valley Democratic seat safe. Representative Filemon Vela's seat safe. Vila saw his district give Biden a scant 51 to 47 win over Trump. Republicans made it a 62 to 37% Biden v Trump seat. But it made a GOP leaning seat (the one Will Hurd held, before a Hispanic Republican won in 2020), in the Rio Grande Valley safe, and it made Democratic rep Henry Cuellar's seat a slightly less Democratic seat (a 7 point Biden win, instead of 10%), which could make it competitive if Cuellar loses his primary to a progressive challenge.

Filemon Vela left his gerrymandered safe-seat, and retired.

Vincent Gonzales moved to Vela's seat, and left his new GOP-leaning seat for somebody else to run in. Republicans are favored.

Where else do you think Democrats could loose?

Connor Lamb's seat should fall. Pennsylvania.

More, too.


  
LamarkNewAge 
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Message 3 of 54 (891501)
02-01-2022 12:54 AM


Cuellar district 2020: 51.5 Biden, 47.3 Trump, now 7.5 Biden win, GOP is helping Cuel
I have good reason for thinking Biden won by 10, in 2020.

(Universal reports say 4.3%, now)

Media reports, at time, said so

Texas paper, months ago, said so.

Now, a 4.3% Biden win.

Just about the same as 4 other Rio Grand district races, in 2020.

Biden won the Vincent Gonzales district by 1.9%.

(The district Gerrymandered process turned it into a 3% Trump win)

Now thevCuellar district is a +7.5% Biden win in 2022.

A pro Cuellar district by the government gerrymander changes.

Jessica Cisneros lost by 2% in the Democrat party primaries last time.


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LamarkNewAge 
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Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 4 of 54 (891502)
02-01-2022 12:55 AM
Reply to: Message 3 by LamarkNewAge
02-01-2022 12:54 AM


Re: Cuellar district 2020: 51.5 Biden, 47.3 Trump, now 7.5 Biden win, GOP is helping Cuel
Media said Biden won his district by 10%, in 2020.

Now they say it was 4%.


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LamarkNewAge 
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Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 5 of 54 (892024)
02-22-2022 11:36 AM


A big nation news report comes practically every day on the March 1 Cuellar-Cisneros
Henry Cuellar was first elected to his heavily Democratic Rio Grand Valley district in 2004, but his party shunned him for the first 4 to 5 years, considering him to be a DINO, who would soon seitch parties.

(He is the last state wide Democratic office holder, due yo Rick Perry appointing him to the Texas Secretary of State position)

(He was a big Bush supporter in the 2000 Bush/Gore race, despite being a Democratic state legislator for over a dozen years)

Now, in 2022, many members of his party fear that the Rio Grande Valley is undergoing a political realignment toward Republicans, and there is extreme nervousness that Cuellar's loss, to a progressive in the primary, could throw the seat to Republicans. This has been a safe Democratic seat. When Frank Tejeda died in 1997, Ciro Rodriguez easily won the seat agaisnt his Republican opponent. Both Tejeda and Rodriguez vited against the partial birth abortion ban.

Democrats could count on easy wins against the Republicans.

(Bush did beat Kerry 53% to 46%, in the district, in 2004, so it DID had some occasional flickers of Republican party support)

March 1 is the primary and Democrats are very nervous.


Replies to this message:
 Message 6 by Theodoric, posted 02-22-2022 5:14 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member (Idle past 6 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 7 of 54 (892026)
02-22-2022 9:09 PM
Reply to: Message 6 by Theodoric
02-22-2022 5:14 PM


Re: A big nation news report comes practically every day on the March 1 Cuellar-Cisneros
You cant Google the last 1 to 7 day's stories?

You quoted my "nervous" line. I just about lifted that - verbatim - from recent national reports.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


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 Message 31 by Theodoric, posted 02-24-2022 12:06 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge 
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Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 32 of 54 (892063)
02-24-2022 2:14 PM
Reply to: Message 31 by Theodoric
02-24-2022 12:06 PM


Re: A big nation news report comes practically every day on the March 1 Cuellar-Cisneros
The Cook political report and NBC news feel that Jessica Cisneros is very possibly too far to the left for the conservative Rio Grande Valley.

(I think the left/right stuff is an oversimplification)

On the issues:

Cuellar concerns me the most, when he is the only (House) Democrat to vote against the landmark labor legislation. I never though I would see a package that has so many earthshaking things for workers. But I am shocked that every Democrat supports it (Mark Kelly, Sinema, and Warner are on the fence in the Senate).

But Cuellar is a heroic pro-free-trade warrior, and Labor HAS burnt bridges with free-trade supporters - to the point of ruinous levels, politically speaking. Only 10% of union members work in a job that involves production of tradable goods, and that is even with "Big Labor" buring bridges that have caused union membership to plummet precipitously.

I have evolved into a sympathetic view of Cuellar, though I saw his negatively, at first.

The labor legislation aside, I now feel that the conservative Democrats of old arent much different (both overall and on an issue by issue basis, roughly) from the "liberal" primary challengers that I was so excited about, years/decades ago. That is one major point that causes me to depart from my past position.

I also started to feel (around 2009-10, but possibly a bit sooner) that Cuellar would have made one heck of a good gubernatorial candidate, and that would have made a tremendous difference in Texas, for the better. He would have been a major improvement over the 2014 nominee. 2010 & 2014 saw already pathetic Democratic chances evaporate in the bad political climate. 2018 would have been a good idea.

Cuellar fought hard against the border wall years before Trump supported it. He was very sincere in his position on Obamacare, and he updated everyone (including nationally on CNN) when he felt he was getting closer to giving his support.

I dont like how he has been forced into the left/right game, and I disagree with the talking point angles he takes. But he is right about the fact that he understands the district and the complexities.

(He never was the DINO everyone assumed he was)

(The ironic thing is that Cuellar might loose due to 40,000 fairly "young", "liberal" San Antonio constituents being added to the Rio Grande Valley district)

(The redrawn district gave Biden a win about 3.0% higher than the totally "even" 4.3% win in the old 2013-2023 districts, which matched the national average)

(Based on the 2020 results, this current district is D+1.5)

*Old district is D+0 or EVEN

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
 Message 33 by Theodoric, posted 02-24-2022 2:33 PM LamarkNewAge has replied
 Message 35 by jar, posted 02-24-2022 4:03 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member (Idle past 6 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 34 of 54 (892066)
02-24-2022 3:42 PM
Reply to: Message 33 by Theodoric
02-24-2022 2:33 PM


Re: Show your sources
I can't get people, like Percy, to admit that I made a factual report on a public opinion poll question (and the poll was a very academically conducted & analysed poll, by CATO), after he totally botched an entire topic (with a few others) over a mistake of his own.

I quoted the polling question and the answers by the polled groups.

It still went nowhere.

Sorry, but I am not going to waste time on people with visceral fat between their (otherwise great) brain tissue. Basic connections are just never going to be made, not matter how resolved the matter might "be".

Now, back to THIS issue:

I deliberately went ahead and gave my opinion on Cuellar, so my non-political-opinion analysis was not botched in the same way. Otherwise, you would get even more confused.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


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LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member (Idle past 6 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 36 of 54 (892068)
02-24-2022 4:49 PM
Reply to: Message 35 by jar
02-24-2022 4:03 PM


Re: A big nation news report comes practically every day on the March 1 Cuellar-Cisneros
You cite a conservative Democrat as evidence?

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 Message 37 by jar, posted 02-24-2022 7:21 PM LamarkNewAge has replied

  
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member (Idle past 6 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 38 of 54 (892075)
02-24-2022 8:30 PM
Reply to: Message 37 by jar
02-24-2022 7:21 PM


Re: A big nation news report comes practically every day on the March 1 Cuellar-Cisneros
So, why did you mention Bentsen?

I know he is a famous Democrat (Any history of George H W Bush will mention the 1970 Senate battle between the two men)

As for the rest of your post, it should be pointed out that Biden beat Trump 57% to 42% in the Rio Grande Valley, if one uses the strictest definition (which limits the area) of the actual RGV. But the outside areas nearby made the race closer.

Biden won nationally by 4.3%, so the Valley voted 12% to 13% more Democratic, in a 50/50 nation.

That would make the whole Valley D+6, if one only looks at the 2020 results.

(Typically it is safer to factor in results from the last 2 Presidential races. But I think 2016 was way more of an outlier than 2020. Infact, 2020 looks like more of the norm, if not a trend toward a developing norm).

Hildago is the most Democratic county in the RGV; Biden won 58 to 41.

But the congressional districts are drawn to include many areas outside the strict RGV.

The Democrats have one seat that includes (most of) Hildago - the seat Filemon Vela is retiring from. The seat was gerrymandered to include heavily Democratic areas from outside Hildago, so that it is a 62-37 Biden district.

(I hate to talk about left/right stuff, but I will quickly point out that the large number of conservative voters, in the RGV, are seeing the Democratic party as out of touch, and are drifting into a more nonpartisan political pattern. Pro Life, pro gun Hispanics, especially. National Democrats are not going to do as well as local Democrats, and this is a calibration disparity pattern that has played out ALOT - all over the country - in recent years/decades.)

(I don't want you to feel I am buying into the typical legt/right paradigm the media likes to peddle, however)

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


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LamarkNewAge 
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Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 41 of 54 (892083)
02-25-2022 1:02 PM
Reply to: Message 40 by Percy
02-25-2022 12:11 PM


Re: Show your sources
Like I even need to argue that Democrats are concerned about loosing a district that is a D+1district (based on 2020 results), with a controversial young candidate (The issue is if Jessica Cisneros wins), in a probable pro-Reoublican year.

Incase anybody doubts that the political climate is challenging for Democrats, go look at the RollCall site's analysis of the new Western District in Montana.

Montana gained population and a sevond congressional seat.

The new Westerm District is great news for Democrata. The at-large (single) congressional seat, gave Trump a 56 to 40 win. It was the entire state. The entire state gave Danes a 55% to 45% win over Stevd Bullock (it would have been much closer if Bullock did not flip on guns, when he ran for President) in the Senate race.

The new "western district" is a good seat, in that Trump only won by 7, and (newly minted gun control supporter) Bullock only lost by 1 point.

Go read Rollcall's new article.

RollCall said the 2022 political climate will make the Democratic friendly district out of reach for Democrats, for now.


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LamarkNewAge 
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Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 45 of 54 (892087)
02-25-2022 3:32 PM
Reply to: Message 44 by Percy
02-25-2022 2:54 PM


Re: Show your sources
Because I get nothibg but pure shit.

Ask jar why he mentioned Lloyd Bentsen, after he said that the Rio Grande Valley is just so progressive.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 44 by Percy, posted 02-25-2022 2:54 PM Percy has seen this message

  
LamarkNewAge 
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Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 46 of 54 (892107)
02-25-2022 11:54 PM


Is the Rio Grande Valley conservative? Some important evidence.
I just noticed that Texas only has 31 state Senators, which means that there are more constituents/residents in a state Senate district than a U.S. congressional district.

Just after the 2010 census reapportionment, Texas state Senate districts all represented 806,000 people.

So I looked into the Rio Grande Valley districts. I found one of them. It is Senate district 27.

Represented by Eddie Lucio jr. since 1991.

Its turns out he is the most conservative Democrat in the 31 member body. He is a major ally of far-right Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick. Patrick campaigns for his reelection!

He won a Democratic primary battle, in 2020, against a progressive, with 54%.

He is retiring now.

Hardly evidence that diminishes my description of the RGV as "conservative".

(But Biden did win 57.6% of the RGV vote while Trump got 41.6%)


  
LamarkNewAge 
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Message 47 of 54 (892175)
03-01-2022 11:15 PM


Cisernos has been at slightly-above 50% all night. Cuellar slghtly below 45% all nil
Around 2/3 of the vote is in.

Cisneros might just win outright, without a need to win a runoff.

Republicans are headed to a runnoff. Some lady named Cassy (forgot last name) leads the #2 candidate about 30% to 15%.

Most Democrats are going to get what they want. Candidate Jessica Cisernos.

And thry get to field her in a non-gerrymandered seat.

It is just so strange that Republicans took a competitive seat, and made it more Democratic. It went from a 4.3% Biden win (old district from last decade) to a Biden win of around 7.3%, I believe.

Nobody can bitch about this district.

Edited by LamarkNewAge, : No reason given.


  
LamarkNewAge 
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Posts: 2236
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Message 48 of 54 (892178)
03-02-2022 12:15 AM


Now it is 48 to 48. Cuellar is ahead by 224 votes.
The only solace for progressives is that the entire district is - basically - Democrats.

But, one wonders if Cisneros really has that much of a chance in a general election,with Republicans voting. Plus independents.

She said Cuellar is "not a Democrat", so I wonder what she thinks of the 48% that are voting for him?

She waged all out war on not only Cuellar, but pretty much anyone who supported him.

How can anti-abortion Democrats not feel like Cisneros' rhetoric, in this race, was not a cannonball fired right at them?

I want to see her win just so we can study the aftermath. I feel like I am such a sociologist, when I watch this race.


  
LamarkNewAge 
Suspended Member (Idle past 6 days)
Posts: 2236
Joined: 12-22-2015


Message 49 of 54 (892179)
03-02-2022 1:33 AM


Turnout is not massively higher in Texas-28 Democratic primary verses GOP primary tur
So far, about 42,000 votes have been counted in the Democratic primary.

28,000 in Republican primary.

Since Democrats must outnumber Republicans by 5 to 1, in Texas U.S. Congressional District 28, that means there should be a ton more Democratic votes to be counted.

(Otherwise, Democrats look like a party with little steam, with such a pathetic turnout - considering the impressive race, anyway)

Cisneros is ahead, 49.0% to 46.4%.


  
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