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Author Topic:   The War in Europe
AZPaul3
Member
Posts: 6642
From: Phoenix
Joined: 11-06-2006
Member Rating: 3.2


Message 751 of 818 (894078)
04-30-2022 3:02 AM
Reply to: Message 750 by Tangle
04-30-2022 2:24 AM


The Mongol hordes were a formidable force in great numbers inflicting and taking great losses in their sweep across the steps. Russia could do likewise.

The Russian would have to do so with their inventory of weapons severely depleted and restocking slow in coming and still many months away. Their inventory of old cold war systems is vast but in very bad condition. One site I saw said that the older stocks of T-72s in the wastelands of the tundra had to be torched open because some of the hatches had rusted solid to the turret. Imagine what the firing systems look like. This is Russia we're talking about. Maintenance? Nyet!

Putin could mobilize his nation and in their usual incompetent and vodka-induced way try to steamroll over Ukraine with rusted popguns and lots of body bags. He can try. He can double down yet again. May even make some progress until he outruns his forward supply line ... again.


Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 750 by Tangle, posted 04-30-2022 2:24 AM Tangle has taken no action

Replies to this message:
 Message 753 by Omnivorous, posted 04-30-2022 9:14 AM AZPaul3 has taken no action

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33904
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 752 of 818 (894080)
04-30-2022 8:47 AM


a consideration
There is one notable difference that is on the horizon but so far untested.

Ukraine can attack Russian supply lines and infrastructure and only Russia is involved.

A Russian attack on Ukraine's supply line would be an attack on a NATO nation and Article 5 is still applicable.

Russia needs to consider just how seriously the NATO members take Article 5 and so far the evidence indicates that the do take Article 5 seriously.

Russia can threaten to use nukes BUT unlike the US in 1945 Russia is not the only nation with a stockpile of nuclear weapons.

Either action by Russia, using nukes anywhere OR attacking Ukrainian supply lines in any NATO nations would definitely result in lots of nations Going Postal.


My Website: My Website

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3851
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 753 of 818 (894081)
04-30-2022 9:14 AM
Reply to: Message 751 by AZPaul3
04-30-2022 3:02 AM


AZPaul3 writes:

The Russian would have to do so with their inventory of weapons severely depleted and restocking slow in coming and still many months away.
...
Putin could mobilize his nation and in their usual incompetent and vodka-induced way try to steamroll over Ukraine with rusted popguns and lots of body bags. He can try. He can double down yet again. May even make some progress until he outruns his forward supply line ... again.

Russia's rulers -- Putin and his oligarchs -- relied on extraction industries to fund their graft, sumptuary lives, and enough common store shelf goods to maintain a passive public. As a consequence, their industrial base withered. Even if their supply lines were high speed highways, untouched by the amazing Ukrainians, they will struggle to provide basic gear and food to their troops.

Already they depend on plunder for food in Ukraine.

Your supply lines could be right there with you, but that doesn't help much when the pipeline is dry.


"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 751 by AZPaul3, posted 04-30-2022 3:02 AM AZPaul3 has taken no action

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 20761
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 2.2


(1)
Message 754 of 818 (894082)
04-30-2022 10:09 AM


"Don't get cocky, kid."
Said Han Solo to Luke Skywalker (not the exact quote, but I like this mutated version better). I don't understand the confidence about the Ukraine conflict. Russia is an enormous country of immense natural resources, including fossil fuels from which it continues to bring in $2 or $3 billion a week and which it can use as leverage against western supporters of Ukraine. Even assuming all the stories of Russian stupidity and incompetence are true, how much less effective a fighting force does it really make them?

Russia is also enormously resourceful financially. The much anticipated debt default was forestalled when Russia managed a surprise dollar-denominated payment yesterday from currency reserves residing outside the country.

One additional effective thing we could do to help Ukraine is get the truth to more of the Russian people. I think Radio Liberty is all Internet and streaming now. Poking around on the Internet I see that Russia has blocked access to the BBC and Voice of America websites, and Radio Free Europe shut down Russian operations. Putin signed a bill some years ago prohibiting use of VPNs. Apparently something called Deep Packet Inspection enables the detection of VPN, and there are probably legal deterrents, too.

--Percy


Replies to this message:
 Message 755 by jar, posted 04-30-2022 10:48 AM Percy has seen this message
 Message 756 by Omnivorous, posted 04-30-2022 10:49 AM Percy has seen this message

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33904
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.8


Message 755 of 818 (894084)
04-30-2022 10:48 AM
Reply to: Message 754 by Percy
04-30-2022 10:09 AM


Re: "Don't get cocky, kid."
I don't think there is much confidence, particularly at the level that can actually make decisions or do something.

There's rhetoric and marketing and influencing and posturing and speculating things but I'm pretty sure them what actually are in a position to do or decide are the ones that are not marketing and influencing and posturing and speculating.


My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 754 by Percy, posted 04-30-2022 10:09 AM Percy has seen this message

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3851
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 2.9


(1)
Message 756 of 818 (894085)
04-30-2022 10:49 AM
Reply to: Message 754 by Percy
04-30-2022 10:09 AM


Re: "Don't get cocky, kid."
Percy writes:

I don't understand the confidence about the Ukraine conflict.

Your subtitle is ever-valuable advice. Putin apparently didn't get it.

I'm equal parts dismayed by the impossible odds faced by Ukraine and amazed by their successes to date; much discussion has naturally focused on how this could happen. But left to their own devices, the end is not in doubt.

But that is not what is happening. Putin expected a short, 'special operation' -- instead, we now have a West vs. Russia proxy war.

In 1940, one might have wondered how Hitler could possibly lose that war. He managed to do that by opening unnecessary fronts, by lengthening his list of opponents, and by making strategic decisions based on delusional thinking.

I don't think Russians are stupid or incompetent. I do think nationalistic, autocratic regimes, by their nature, make stupid and incompetent policy decisions, especially in times of war. Autocrats silence dissent in their own circles. Putin had no one willing to warn him against his cockiness.

Declared U.S. goals in Ukraine include weakening the Russian military to inhibit future adventures. I expect that to succeed. There will be little left of Ukraine.


"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 754 by Percy, posted 04-30-2022 10:09 AM Percy has seen this message

Replies to this message:
 Message 757 by ringo, posted 04-30-2022 11:40 AM Omnivorous has replied

  
ringo
Member
Posts: 19530
From: frozen wasteland
Joined: 03-23-2005
Member Rating: 2.8


(1)
Message 757 of 818 (894087)
04-30-2022 11:40 AM
Reply to: Message 756 by Omnivorous
04-30-2022 10:49 AM


Re: "Don't get cocky, kid."
Omnivorous writes:

Declared U.S. goals in Ukraine include weakening the Russian military to inhibit future adventures. I expect that to succeed. There will be little left of Ukraine.


Ukraine is the sacrificial lamb that saves the rest of us.

"I call that bold talk for a one-eyed fat man!"
-- Lucky Ned Pepper

This message is a reply to:
 Message 756 by Omnivorous, posted 04-30-2022 10:49 AM Omnivorous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 758 by Omnivorous, posted 04-30-2022 12:10 PM ringo has seen this message

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3851
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 758 of 818 (894088)
04-30-2022 12:10 PM
Reply to: Message 757 by ringo
04-30-2022 11:40 AM


Re: "Don't get cocky, kid."
ringo writes:

Ukraine is the sacrificial lamb that saves the rest of us.

I fear it is so. My heart aches for them.

If I was the 20-something vet I once was, I'd go. We Americans are a combative lot. How we longed for a just war!


"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 757 by ringo, posted 04-30-2022 11:40 AM ringo has seen this message

Replies to this message:
 Message 759 by dwise1, posted 04-30-2022 1:11 PM Omnivorous has replied

  
dwise1
Member
Posts: 5074
Joined: 05-02-2006
Member Rating: 2.7


Message 759 of 818 (894089)
04-30-2022 1:11 PM
Reply to: Message 758 by Omnivorous
04-30-2022 12:10 PM


Re: "Don't get cocky, kid."
I don't know whether it's their official name, but the Ukrainian Foreign Legion is accepting veterans with combat experience and who are physically fit. 60-year-old Senior Chief Malcolm Nance has volunteered and is serving with them now:

quote:
On 18 April 2022, Nance revealed that he had joined the International Legion of Territorial Defense of Ukraine in March 2022.

That Wikipedia page on the Legion says that they're more than 20,000 strong. Also that they're getting volunteers with no prior military and have had to sort that out ("On April 1, 2022, Ukraine announced that recruitment will be temporarily halted in order to sort out volunteers who don't have any military background").

And Malcolm Nance's decades of work in the intelligence community included a concentration on Russian activity. He also speaks Russian.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 758 by Omnivorous, posted 04-30-2022 12:10 PM Omnivorous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 760 by Omnivorous, posted 04-30-2022 1:55 PM dwise1 has taken no action

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3851
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 2.9


Message 760 of 818 (894090)
04-30-2022 1:55 PM
Reply to: Message 759 by dwise1
04-30-2022 1:11 PM


Re: "Don't get cocky, kid."
Malcolm has participated in a panel discussion on WAMC for several years. Before he joined the Legion, he did live calls to the panel from Ukraine. He did another after he signed up. When asked what he'd tell would be volunteers, he said if you can run two miles in boots while being shelled, come on down. I can still do that.

He's 60.


"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 759 by dwise1, posted 04-30-2022 1:11 PM dwise1 has taken no action

  
Tanypteryx
Member
Posts: 3296
From: Oregon, USA
Joined: 08-27-2006
Member Rating: 3.2


Message 761 of 818 (894091)
04-30-2022 2:09 PM


Ukrainian ATVs buzzing around like Murder Hornets
I saw a report today about Ukrainians using ATVs mounted with anti-tank missiles for hit and run tactics. The Ukrainians have demonstrated they are very adept at adopting underdog tactics against an invader that apparently has failed with adequate planning and logistics prior to invasion.

The Russians have inflicted a lot of destruction, but there sure has not been a shocking display of sophisticated military technology like I remember watching on CNN during the first "Gulf War" with Iraq. Back then I got a feeling that Russians (and a lot of other adversaries) were saying "HOLY SHIT".

To me, it also looks like Putin isn't a competent enough leader to recognize what incompetence and corruption have done to Russia's military. I have to wonder what percentage of their nuclear missiles and launchers are actually still functional?


Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned!

What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python

One important characteristic of a theory is that is has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie

If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --percy

The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq


Replies to this message:
 Message 762 by Phat, posted 04-30-2022 2:23 PM Tanypteryx has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 15948
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.3


Message 762 of 818 (894092)
04-30-2022 2:23 PM
Reply to: Message 761 by Tanypteryx
04-30-2022 2:09 PM


Nuclear Winter and Sobering realities of the fragility of the Biosphere
I have to wonder what percentage of their nuclear missiles and launchers are actually still functional?
Even if it's only 10%, that's 400 Nukes. It likely would only take an exchange of around 10 per side to initiate a nuclear winter.

I am soberly realistic regarding the future of humanity. And I am not as blindly idealistic as are some of you. It is far from only being the fault of the Republicans, for example. Humanity itself is fully culpable.

Of course, men like Putin do represent evil incarnate. They care little for anything or anyone outside their own narrow and warped view of future existence.


"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“A God without wrath brought men without sin into a Kingdom without judgment through the ministrations of a Christ without a Cross.”
H. Richard Niebuhr, The Kingdom of God in America

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 761 by Tanypteryx, posted 04-30-2022 2:09 PM Tanypteryx has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 763 by Omnivorous, posted 04-30-2022 3:28 PM Phat has replied
 Message 767 by Tanypteryx, posted 04-30-2022 4:17 PM Phat has replied

  
Omnivorous
Member
Posts: 3851
From: Adirondackia
Joined: 07-21-2005
Member Rating: 2.9


(4)
Message 763 of 818 (894093)
04-30-2022 3:28 PM
Reply to: Message 762 by Phat
04-30-2022 2:23 PM


Re: Nuclear Winter and Sobering realities of the fragility of the Biosphere
Phat writes:

I am soberly realistic regarding the future of humanity. And I am not as blindly idealistic as are some of you.

I haven't been back long, but haven't seen any blind idealism about the future from anyone. What sort of thing did you mean?

It is far from only being the fault of the Republicans, for example.
They do seem to over-achieve.

Humanity itself is fully culpable.
Nope. That's Original Sin. We each bear our own moral burdens, and no one else's.

"If you can keep your head while those around you are losing theirs, you can collect a lot of heads."

Homo sum, humani nihil a me alienum puto.
-Terence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 762 by Phat, posted 04-30-2022 2:23 PM Phat has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 764 by Phat, posted 04-30-2022 4:02 PM Omnivorous has replied

  
Phat
Member
Posts: 15948
From: Denver,Colorado USA
Joined: 12-30-2003
Member Rating: 1.3


Message 764 of 818 (894094)
04-30-2022 4:02 PM
Reply to: Message 763 by Omnivorous
04-30-2022 3:28 PM


Re: Nuclear Winter and Sobering realities of the fragility of the Biosphere
Omni writes:

I haven't been back long, but haven't seen any blind idealism about the future from anyone. What sort of thing did you mean?

I meant its not as simple as the "good party" and the "bad party". The reason that there is a divide is that people think largely one way or the other.
Omni writes:

They (Republicans in general)do seem to over-achieve.

First off, what have they achieved? If anything, neither side gets much done. They are too busy fighting each other over the office.

Omni writes:

We each bear our own moral burdens, and no one else's.

How does that matter? Part of the sin is the pride of getting ourselves out of it rather than asking for help.

"A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes." ~Mark Twain "
***
“…far from science having buried God, not only do the results of science point towards his existence, but the scientific enterprise itself is validated by his existence.”- Dr.John Lennox

“A God without wrath brought men without sin into a Kingdom without judgment through the ministrations of a Christ without a Cross.”
H. Richard Niebuhr, The Kingdom of God in America

“The most difficult subjects can be explained to the most slow-witted man if he has not formed any idea of them already; but the simplest thing cannot be made clear to the most intelligent man if he is firmly persuaded that he knows already, without a shadow of a doubt, what is laid before him.” — Leo Tolstoy, The Kingdom of God is Within You
(1894).


This message is a reply to:
 Message 763 by Omnivorous, posted 04-30-2022 3:28 PM Omnivorous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 765 by jar, posted 04-30-2022 4:09 PM Phat has taken no action
 Message 766 by Omnivorous, posted 04-30-2022 4:11 PM Phat has taken no action
 Message 770 by ringo, posted 05-01-2022 2:18 PM Phat has taken no action

  
jar
Member
Posts: 33904
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004
Member Rating: 2.8


(1)
Message 765 of 818 (894095)
04-30-2022 4:09 PM
Reply to: Message 764 by Phat
04-30-2022 4:02 PM


Re: Nuclear Winter and Sobering realities of the fragility of the Biosphere
Phat writes:

Part of the sin is the pride of getting ourselves out of it rather than asking for help.

There you go saying really stupid stuff again.

There is no one to ask to help except other humans.

There is no evidence that anyone other than humans have ever helped.

And if you had honestly ever read the Bible you would have noticed that it says that humans have to be the ones who actually do the tasks.

You still try to count on the Jeeves you worship.


My Website: My Website

This message is a reply to:
 Message 764 by Phat, posted 04-30-2022 4:02 PM Phat has taken no action

  
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