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Author | Topic: Why There Are Gold Bugs & Silver Stackers | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Theodoric Member Posts: 9489 From: Northwest, WI, USA Joined: Member Rating: 6.1 |
I think you are correct. I again have given him to much credit for his motivations and actions.
What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness. If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up, why would you have to lie?
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Taq Member Posts: 10296 Joined: Member Rating: 7.1 |
Phat writes: In modern monetary "theory" (as opposed to fact) what *is* the bedrock of the global financial system? The bedrock of any specific currency is the money supply, economy, banking system, and government of the country that issues the currency. The US dollar is strong because it is has the largest economy by far, the largest money supply, a fairly independent banking system, and the world's longest standing democracy that doesn't mess with its currency that much. The bedrock of the global financial system is the ability to trade with anyone for anything without needing a navy to protect your merchant fleet. This was part of the Bretton Woods agreement that the US put together, and the US served the part of being a global navy that protects everyone's merchant fleet. The flip side of this deal was that you had to stand with the US against the USSR. With the end of the Cold War this arrangment is a bit strained.
In conclusion, I respect Taqs argument that precious metals should be a part of a balanced portfolio. Experts recommend 5-10%. Or just commodities in general. I would suspect that there are some decent commodity hedges that would act as a buffer against market losses.
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Taq Member Posts: 10296 Joined: Member Rating: 7.1
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Phat writes: You can give 5 forcasts for inflation numbers...all of them by relevant degree bearing individuals and still not arrive at a precise and correct number. Numbers are elusive and can be manipulative. I'm not saying that our current government gives out false or misleading information. Im saying that nobody knows the actual number. That's why they use indexes which sample different products from different markets to get an estimate on inflation.
I have heard that the dollar has lost 97% of its purchasing power, but I am unclear what the numbers mean and if they are accurate. (since 1888) Which means the economy has grown by leaps and bounds since 1888.
The question is which train is actually moving and which train is standing still? Pick whichever train you want, but you are going to need dollars in order to buy anything.
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Taq Member Posts: 10296 Joined: Member Rating: 7.1
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Phat writes: I would look into the idea that the stock market is propped up and that some companies buy their own stock. Of course they do. Why wouldn't they, if they have the extra cash? This allows them to keep more profits in the future instead of sending out those profits to other shareholders as dividends. The other more nefarious reason is that they pay their CEO's in stocks so that the CEO can pay lower taxes (i.e. capital gains).
I also have heard that the FED itself plays around with money and numbers. That's rather vague.
I have heard that if faith in the treasury and credit markets was ever shaken and that mass of money found no safe haven except Gold, the value of Gold would momentarily reach $60,000.00+ per ounce. I wouldn't be surprised if you heard that. There's lots of nonsense out there on the internet. The world already holds trillions in US currency, more dollars than exists in gold. This creates a massive buffer for the US banking system. If you feel some existential dread about the near future of the US currency and economy over fiat currencies, debt, and whatever, then you shouldn't be worried. Again, Japan is a bit of a canary in the coal mine for us. Their debt to GDP ratio is 250% (twice that of the US), and it's even higher than that once you factor in pensioner programs that don't have the tax base to support them. Their demographics are horrible from an economic point of view, and their economy has been stagnant since the early 1990's. You know what? They're doing OK. There's no economic apocalypse in Japan even though their economic numbers look way worse than ours. And they aren't even the world's currency for trade, something that gives the US way more margin for error.
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Phat Member Posts: 18633 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.1 |
Taq writes: There *is* a crises in China. There's no economic apocalypse in Japan even though their economic numbers look way worse than ours. And they aren't even the world's currency for trade, something that gives the US way more margin for error. Stay tuned...we all are not out of the woods yet.
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Tanypteryx Member Posts: 4597 From: Oregon, USA Joined: Member Rating: 9.5 |
Phat in Message 35 writes: Taq writes: There *is* a crises in China.
There's no economic apocalypse in Japan even though their economic numbers look way worse than ours. And they aren't even the world's currency for trade, something that gives the US way more margin for error. What does that have to do with Japan's economy or the U.S. dollar or silver or gold?
Stay tuned...we all are not out of the woods yet. You may not have noticed, but economies are always in a state of flux, sometimes rapid and sometime slow. Are we ever out of the woods? Do we want to get out of the woods? Why? What do the woods symbolize to you?Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned! What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python One important characteristic of a theory is that it has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --Percy The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq Why should anyone debate someone who doesn't know the subject? -- AZPaul3
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Taq Member Posts: 10296 Joined: Member Rating: 7.1
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Phat writes: There *is* a crises in China. That's because they thought they could ride the capital investment train forever. Turns out, you need domestic consumers as well, even if demography isn't on your side. Also, investing in really bad projects for no other reason than to stimulate the economy turns out to be a bad idea. China's issues have nothing to do with fiat currency. However, their penchant for overly manipulating their currency may come back to bite them. For better or worse, you can't exchange Chinese currency for any other currency anyway. We can also stack up a few other massive issues. Their local governments are dependent on land sales, and the realty market has absolutely cratered due to massive overbuild. Something like 35% of Chinese GDP is tied up in realty. Their Belt and Road initiative is crashing and burning to the tune of several trillion.
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Phat Member Posts: 18633 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.1 |
Are we ever out of the woods? No.What do the woods symbolize to you? Confusion. No clear sense of direction. Increased spending year after year to combat causes that have no solution. A dilution of the pursuit of happiness and peace of mind.
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Tanypteryx Member Posts: 4597 From: Oregon, USA Joined: Member Rating: 9.5 |
Phat in Message 38 writes: What do the woods symbolize to you? Confusion. No clear sense of direction. Increased spending year after year to combat causes that have no solution. A dilution of the pursuit of happiness and peace of mind. It would have been enough to just say "confusion". Your examples of your confusion don't really clarify anything. "A dilution of the pursuit of happiness and peace of mind." Really? This means something to you?Stop Tzar Vladimir the Condemned! What if Eleanor Roosevelt had wings? -- Monty Python One important characteristic of a theory is that it has survived repeated attempts to falsify it. Contrary to your understanding, all available evidence confirms it. --Subbie If evolution is shown to be false, it will be at the hands of things that are true, not made up. --Percy The reason that we have the scientific method is because common sense isn't reliable. -- Taq Why should anyone debate someone who doesn't know the subject? -- AZPaul3
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Theodoric Member Posts: 9489 From: Northwest, WI, USA Joined: Member Rating: 6.1 |
So do nothing about anything?
What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness. If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up, why would you have to lie?
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Phat Member Posts: 18633 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.1 |
I never said to do nothing. What I am implying is that we cannot nor should not keep borrowing against the equity of our country. We need a sound fiscal balance sheet moving forward. We cannot pay the worlds bills.
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Theodoric Member Posts: 9489 From: Northwest, WI, USA Joined: Member Rating: 6.1 |
Explain what this means. Sounds like more word salad. It also is vastly different from what I questioned.
Do you want no public debt? What I am implying is that we cannot nor should not keep borrowing against the equity of our country. We need a sound fiscal balance sheet moving forward. We cannot pay the worlds bills What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness. If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up, why would you have to lie?
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Phat Member Posts: 18633 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.1 |
Do you want no public debt? Not if the public is in debt to the rest of the world.In fact, not even if the public is in debt to the US treasury. Some debt is inevitable and is ok. We are stepping beyond that safety zone. So do nothing about anything? Would you sacrifice the safety of your retirement savings to help the masses?
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Phat Member Posts: 18633 From: Denver,Colorado USA Joined: Member Rating: 4.1 |
Percy writes: The next 25 years will be nothing like the last 25. About 20 years later as retirement was getting closer and it was time to start managing our money better I finally took a look at my old stock account. It had done fantastic! Ignoring it and doing nothing was the best strategy. That being said, I agree with your strategy of not touching it. I failed at my opportunities.
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Theodoric Member Posts: 9489 From: Northwest, WI, USA Joined: Member Rating: 6.1
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Not if the public is in debt to the rest of the world.
Who else is going to take our debt?
In fact, not even if the public is in debt to the US treasury.
What do you think this even means?
Would you sacrifice the safety of your retirement savings to help the masses?
It is not an either or proposition. Why do you think it is? Edited by Theodoric, . What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence. -Christopher Hitchens Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts "God did it" is not an argument. It is an excuse for intellectual laziness. If your viewpoint has merits and facts to back it up, why would you have to lie?
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