The Second Trump Presidency

Donald Trump has won the 2024 presidential election. Predictions that come to mind at the moment:

1. He will have the biggest inaugural crowd in American history. This time he will insure that it is literally true.
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2. He will abandon Ukraine and cozy up to Russia.
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3. He won't leave NATO, but he will continue to present difficult problems for the alliance.
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4. He will double down on our support of Israel.
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5. He will become more aggressive against Iran.
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6. Jack Smith will be fired. The federal cases against Trump for stealing documents and for attempting to steal the 2020 election will end.
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7. The situation for illegal immigrants will become more dire, both for those trying to enter the country and those already in the country. Businesses that "employ" (exploit) immigrants, whether legal or illegal, will have a harder time finding workers, especially agriculture.
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8. He will continue his campaign against the Affordable Care Act.
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9. He will use the Justice Department, and the IRS, to persecute political enemies and anyone he believes has slighted him.
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10. His vision of America will grow darker and darker.

Trump may very well win both the electoral college and the popular vote. If he wins the popular vote he would be only the second Republican presidential candidate to achieve this in the last 36 years.--Percy

I remember an old post you made where you asked rhetorically, "Is this who we really are?" I can't believe he got in, but I am not looking forward to the global future.Of course most conservative church folk voted for him, but what carried him was the Latino vote, as well as the uneducated white vote.(I suppose many elitists would put me in this category! )My only prediction is a gloomy one. I believe that both the United States and Israel will be judged for their actions in the next four years. (as well as the past two).For those who don't believe in God as the judge, substitute "the rest of the world".I'm not as scared of Trump as many of you are, but I certainly don't see him as "the smart guy that he portrays himself as. We all are gonna have to own this one.Yes Percy, evidently this *is* who we are.

Another prediction:

11. If given the opportunity, he will appoint more ultra-conservative Supreme Court justices.

--Percy

Living in a rural state, I find this one to be the most intriguing. I will be interested to see what happens when Trump's rhetoric runs into the real world. How will his rural base react to not having enough workers come harvest time, or having to pay much higher wages.I will also be curious to see what happens when Trump learns who actually pays tariffs.

I am curious about who will fill Trump's cabinet. One name that I read about was Elbridge Colby.I don't know that much about any of these people, but I certainly don't want to see RFK Jr. in charge of health since I heard that he was once an anti-vaxxer.I'm sure that Theodoric thinks that I have supported Trump all along, largely due to my references to Colonel Douglas MacGregor, but I am certainly not a warmonger. I want peace and cooperation.The reconciliation that Trump seemed to propose regarding a divided America is directed at our global adversaries in my opinion. Trump wants to do business and make some money off of the world. Whether this is the best path to peace is up for debate. I learned about Tariffs from you guys and am not in favor of that approach to geopolitical diplomacy and strategy. Russia is not our friend. They are already at economic war with us as I have pointed out before.

I learned about it from you. Surely he has to know. What will end up happening is that the middle class will continue to be squeezed by higher prices as the dollar continues its slow decline. I will point out that de-dollarization is a bi-partisan issue.That reminds me...I need to check the markets.Damn! Gold and silver are both now going down! The Dow jumped a thousand points. Its all inflated dollars anyway.

Assuming Trump does know: This opens a Pandora's box of different conclusions. Did he lie about how tariffs work because he never thought he would actually win? Does he plan on continuing the lie and put tariffs in place? Did he never have any intention of putting tariffs on all imports, but just said it to win votes?Assuming Trump doesn't know: Whiskey tango foxtrot.Added in edit:
Trump claimed we could replace income tax with tariffs. Just to put some numbers on this:2023 revenue from income tax = 2.18 T
2023 imported goods = 3.83 Taverage tariff needed = 57%

Right right, another measure then that disproportionally favors the rich, they have a higher tax rate on their income, so they'll gain the most from that.The poorest will get only a small benefit from this.Yet at the same time, the increase in goods cost from such Tariffs would be 50%+, meaning the cost of living goes up a lot for the poor in comparison to the richest, who probably won't even notice the difference, because they're rich.Great fun, did I get this right?

Yep. Trump's tariff proposal would shift more of the tax burden from the rich to the poor.I don't think it's possible to create a progressive tax structure in a representative democracy where the rich can lobby representatives for special treatment in return for donations, gifts, etc., without limit. Combined with the ability of politicians to convince millions of people of lies I think we've reached the point where we only resemble a representative democracy in that on a designated day each year we make marks on pieces of paper.--Percy

The next waypoint is Trump's sentencing hearing.

My understanding is that Trump v. United States (2024) confers immunity to the presidency against any such investigations, charges or Federal Court actions. Trump v. United States | 603 U.S. ___ (2024) | Justia U.S. Supreme Court CenterAlready the federal prosecutors are closing up shop from Jack Smith to the Florida documents cases.Special counsel Jack Smith expected to wind down Trump prosecutions: Sources - ABC NewsWhat are left are the state cases and the Hush Money case. Even these may soon fall under the SCOTUS Immunity ruling. Timeline: Manhattan DA's Stormy Daniels hush money case against Donald Trump - ABC NewsRight now, I don't think any jurisdiction can touch him.No. He is not going to jail.

At this point I'm only capable of watching in horror, and I can't even do that because I can't bring myself to look at the news. It won't really begin to get bad until January 20th - maybe I'll have developed more intestinal fortitude by then.I wonder if those who voted for Trump will ever realize what they have done, or will they not even realize their democracy is gone?--Percy

I have been at our union contract negotiations and have watched in disbelief as the rulings begin to change before our eyes. The merger, once dead in the water, may assume a new life after January 20th. The pension will take a hit. Healthcare may change. Even Social Security may now be in jeopardy. It is not a good time to grow old.

At least we know that they will not make that same mistake again. Remember that Trump had promised his followers that they will never have to vote again.

Nevada and Arizona have not been called yet in this map, but whether they've been called officially or not they are definitely going for Trump, so this was an overwhelming electoral victory for Trump, 312-226: The popular vote wasn't close either (not a final tally): 72,957,805 to 68,415,122 (50.8% to 47.7%)Trump has a mandate.--Percy