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Author Topic:   Probability of God
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1427 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 31 of 55 (141059)
09-08-2004 6:25 PM


50-50
The best you could get with an honest answer is 50-50, because there is not evidence for or against the existence. For this reason agnostic is the most logical possition.
It is interesting to see that Dawkins has also addressed this issue:
http://www.secularhumanism.org/library/fi/dawkins_18_3.html
There is a temptation to argue that, although God may not be needed to explain the evolution of complex order once the universe, with its fundamental laws of physics, had begun, we do need a God to explain the origin of all things. This idea doesn't leave God with very much to do: just set off the big bang, then sit back and wait for everything to happen. The physical chemist Peter Atkins, in his beautifully written book The Creation, postulates a lazy God who strove to do as little as possible in order to initiate everything. Atkins explains how each step in the history of the universe followed, by simple physical law, from its predecessor. He thus pares down the amount of work that the lazy creator would need to do and eventually concludes that he would in fact have needed to do nothing at all!
The details of the early phase of the universe belong to the realm of physics, whereas I am a biologist, more concerned with the later phases of the evolution of complexity. For me, the important point is that, even if the physicist needs to postulate an irreducible minimum that had to be present in the beginning, in order for the universe to get started, that irreducible minimum is certainly extremely simple. By definition, explanations that build on simple premises are more plausible and more satisfying than explanations that have to postulate complex and statistically improbable beginnings. And you can't get much more complex than an Almighty God!
The article is much longer and goes into most of the creationist and ID probability arguments to rebute them, he then concludes that having done so that the probability is very low.
Now I count Dawkins as truly more of an anti-theist than an atheist, as his position is extreme to the point of an equal certainty of belief of many theists.
Enjoy

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
{{{Buddha walks off laughing with joy}}}

Replies to this message:
 Message 32 by Hangdawg13, posted 09-08-2004 9:36 PM RAZD has replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1427 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 33 of 55 (141108)
09-08-2004 11:00 PM
Reply to: Message 32 by Hangdawg13
09-08-2004 9:36 PM


Re: 50-50
The best we can do, as I tried to say in my previous post, is to try and find the probability that God is the creator and sustainer of the universe.
Actually the problem with this {probability question} is the same as all the other "improbable probability" arguments: there is no way to know enough about the systems to properly calculate the probability without knowing enough about the systems to know the answer.
For instance, it is easy to calculate the probability of a throw of dice, because you can know all the different combinations.
Beyond that you are guessing, and the accuracy of the calculation depends on the validity of the guessing.
What event will answer the question? Death. A flip of a coin ...
Enjoy your class, I had fun with it.
Enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
{{{Buddha walks off laughing with joy}}}

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 Message 32 by Hangdawg13, posted 09-08-2004 9:36 PM Hangdawg13 has not replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1427 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 40 of 55 (163403)
11-26-2004 9:23 PM
Reply to: Message 8 by NosyNed
11-24-2003 10:01 AM


problem with probability here ...
but
one problem could be that they are all representations of the same god, but the differences is due to human inability to comprehend, from early views to more sophisticated later views we are still ... "limited in our ability to understand by our ability to understand"
there are certainly many practices in a variety of religions that are similar even though the "mythos" of the beliefs are quite different.
just some food for thought?

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
{{{Buddha walks off laughing with joy}}}

This message is a reply to:
 Message 8 by NosyNed, posted 11-24-2003 10:01 AM NosyNed has not replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1427 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 45 of 55 (171257)
12-23-2004 11:40 PM
Reply to: Message 15 by Abshalom
12-03-2003 1:17 PM


Re: Sidelined's Question
which one?
and you are also leaving out all the non-omnipotent, non-omniscient, non-singular, non-gendered, noncorporal, inexplicable, Creators of the various parts of the universe ...
that reduces it somewhat.
You could argue that most peole are really atheist by (the numbers of gods they do not believe in less the ones they do) being a quantity greater than zero.
enjoy.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
{{{Buddha walks off laughing with joy}}}

This message is a reply to:
 Message 15 by Abshalom, posted 12-03-2003 1:17 PM Abshalom has not replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1427 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 50 of 55 (171286)
12-24-2004 7:16 AM
Reply to: Message 43 by robinrohan
12-20-2004 7:11 PM


would the calculation change if it is shown that other animals have minds and consciences?
we have all likely seen dogs that just know when they have been "bad" ...
there are apes in the sign-language studies that have exhibited abstract thought ...
are these facets of life existant in other life but it's just a matter of degree?

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
{{{Buddha walks off laughing with joy}}}

This message is a reply to:
 Message 43 by robinrohan, posted 12-20-2004 7:11 PM robinrohan has not replied

  
RAZD
Member (Idle past 1427 days)
Posts: 20714
From: the other end of the sidewalk
Joined: 03-14-2004


Message 51 of 55 (171288)
12-24-2004 7:39 AM
Reply to: Message 15 by Abshalom
12-03-2003 1:17 PM


Re: Sidelined's Question
let me put it this way ...
omnipotent, omniscient, singular, non-gendered, noncorporal, inexplicable, Creator of the entire universe
omnipotent - 50%
singular - 50%
non-gendered - 50%
noncorporal - 50%
inexplicable - 50%
Coteu - 50%
probability of all those being true = 0.56x100 = 1.5% but the probability of any 5 out of that six is entirely a different matter.
there is a big difference between the probability of any god being in existence and the probability of a specific one from a specific religion being in existence.

we are limited in our ability to understand
by our ability to understand
RebelAAmerican.Zen[Deist
{{{Buddha walks off laughing with joy}}}

This message is a reply to:
 Message 15 by Abshalom, posted 12-03-2003 1:17 PM Abshalom has not replied

  
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