Probability of God

The Probability of only one god = 1 minus probability of no god minus the probability of more than one god.That said, probability arguments can be telling. However they can also lead to some truly weird situations. For example, consider the Probability of randomly selecting a given digit value from the infinite number of digits in some irrational number's decimal expansion. Let me construct such a number in this way decimal pnt, one, zero, one, zero, zero, one, zero, zero, zero, etc where each time one occurs it is followed by one more zero than the last time it occurred. In no# form we have .10100100010000... It never starts repeating from any location. Thus, it is irrational. It contains a infinite number of one's and zero's, and yet the probability of randomly selecting a 1 across the whole irrational number is 0!Here's why: take any finite sequence ending in 1 of the irrational number that starts at the decimal and has at least one zero. Count the number of 1's in the sequence and subtract one from that total. So lets say that we count N 1's, our number is thus (N - 1). Because of how the irrational number is constructed, the number of 0's will equal 1+2+3+...+(N-1) in the finite sequence we just studied. Now the sum 1+2+3+...+(N-1) is (N-1)*(N)/2 or (N^2 - N)/2. Adding the number of 1's (N) to the number of 0's (N^2 - N)/2, we get (N^2 + N)/2.The probability of randomly selecting one of the N 1's in the finite sequence we are studying is equal to the number of 1's in the sequence (N) divided by the numbers in the sequence (N^2 + N)/2. Thus the probability of selecting a 1 is equal to 2N/(N^2 + N) or 2/(N+1). This number decreases as N increases. And using a bit of first year calculus: The limit of 2/(N+1) as N approaches infinity which is equal to 0.

West: probability is never quite as it appears. In my example, there are a transfinite one's and yet the probability of randomly selecting a one is zero. On the other hand say I select with prior knowledge, in that case I choose the 1st digit and I have done the "impossible." Zero probability does not mean impossible in all cases (especially when infinites come into play). I would say that the probability of this universe is more or less exactly zero (indeed I personally believe on faith that if we had all the knowledge needed that it would turn out to be exactly zero with no variance). The same goes for GOD. Sure I believe in God, but I also believe on faith that the probability of God is most likely zero (again given that zero probability does not mean impossible).On your claim that the Probability is "50/50." Probability depends upon more than true/not true relationships. For example, the probability of rolling a sum of 2 on 2 fair dice is 0.0277777777... (1/36th) even through either you roll the sum of 2 or you don't. Indeed it is ever so slightly more likely that choosing a human that rundom from those living in North America would result in a female rather than a male even through those are the only two possible answers.This message has been edited by thgar, 11-26-2004 09:14 PM