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Author Topic:   The best scientific method (Bayesian form of H-D)
Loudmouth
Inactive Member


Message 171 of 273 (81199)
01-27-2004 4:54 PM
Reply to: Message 169 by Stephen ben Yeshua
01-27-2004 2:39 PM


Re: Kuhn's dilemma
quote:
Also, what do you think is the best explanation for the various actions that others call evil, genocides, tortures, serial killings, child abuse, wife-beating, self-destructive behaviors, suicides, religious nuttiness, human sacrifice, etc. Demons are proposed as a critical part of the usual explanation for these things. What is your best idea. How plausible to you assess that hypothesis to be? A priori.
I can offer evidence that War and Peace also harbors codes that predict the future. Should we follow the teachings of War and Peace as you do the Bible?
quote:
Also, what do you think is the best explanation for the various actions that others call evil, genocides, tortures, serial killings, child abuse, wife-beating, self-destructive behaviors, suicides, religious nuttiness, human sacrifice, etc. Demons are proposed as a critical part of the usual explanation for these things. What is your best idea. How plausible to you assess that hypothesis to be? A priori.
The best explanation is that it is human nature. Period. And secondly, why do you pick demons as the most likely cause? What SCIENTIFIC evidence singles out demons versus psychosis by means of a natural mechanism (eg, brain chemistry)? Why not microscopic gnomes reconfiguring ganglial interactions? Icelanders believe in gnomes, so it must be true.
quote:
You don't need any evidence to have an opinion on this, according to the Bayes theorem. Be as subjective as you like. The process will peel away that subjectivity, leaving you with an objective estimate.
Then why do you keep citing the Bible Codes as evidence? The Bible Codes are no more impressive than alphabet soup spelling "Ouch". I can cite mathmeticians who hold this position, but you have ignored the previous citations so I will withold for now.
quote:
Based on the mad dog model, I see the madness of human as very plausibly parasitically based, and since I cannot find an organic parasite, I accept the possibility of a spiritual one. So, I put the prior plausibility at about .6. This was my starting point, when I began looking at prayer experiments, etc.
I am not sure what the "mad dog model' is. Could you be talking about rabies? Secondly, what in the madness of humans do you see as parasitic? Reminds me of Stargate SG-1.
It seems that you are mixing up objectivity and personal preference/theory. You believe it should be this way, so that is evidence enough for you. However, this is not scientific.
[This message has been edited by Loudmouth, 01-27-2004]

This message is a reply to:
 Message 169 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-27-2004 2:39 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has not replied

  
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