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Author Topic:   Induction and Science
Panda
Member (Idle past 3734 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 173 of 744 (590812)
11-09-2010 9:25 PM
Reply to: Message 169 by nwr
11-09-2010 9:10 PM


Re: Induction And Science
nwr writes:
I have no reason to suspect that it will change. But I have no way of knowing that it won't change.
quote:
The premises of an inductive logical argument indicate some degree of support (inductive probability) for the conclusion but do not entail it; that is, they suggest truth but do not ensure it.
source
So, you use inductive logic in every day life.
As does science.
So - this thread is done?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 169 by nwr, posted 11-09-2010 9:10 PM nwr has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 174 by nwr, posted 11-09-2010 9:31 PM Panda has replied

  
Panda
Member (Idle past 3734 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 176 of 744 (590816)
11-09-2010 9:42 PM
Reply to: Message 174 by nwr
11-09-2010 9:31 PM


Re: Induction And Science
nwr writes:
I would call that "statistical reasoning" rather than "inductive logic."
Fine.
But please remember that everyone else is using the established name for inductive logic - which is: 'inductive logic'.
And 'statistical reasoning' already has a definition which does not describe your behaviour.
Things can get very confused when someone decides to arbitrarily re-define words in the English language.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 174 by nwr, posted 11-09-2010 9:31 PM nwr has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 177 by nwr, posted 11-09-2010 10:01 PM Panda has replied

  
Panda
Member (Idle past 3734 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 179 of 744 (590821)
11-09-2010 10:21 PM
Reply to: Message 177 by nwr
11-09-2010 10:01 PM


Re: Induction And Science
nwr writes:
You are not talking about my behavior. You are talking only about what you assert to be my behavior.
Actually I was referring to how you describe your own behaviour.
But anyway - go ahead and change the meanings of words as you wish.
Just don't forget that only you will understand.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 177 by nwr, posted 11-09-2010 10:01 PM nwr has seen this message but not replied

  
Panda
Member (Idle past 3734 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 185 of 744 (590869)
11-10-2010 9:59 AM
Reply to: Message 183 by Jon
11-10-2010 9:36 AM


Re: The Myth of Induction
Jon writes:
P4: The observed inductive-form argument is just a deductive-form argument with unstated premises (observance)
My maths teacher did this 'divide by zero' trick so that he could mathematically prove that 1 = 2.
But he did it knowing it was flawed.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 183 by Jon, posted 11-10-2010 9:36 AM Jon has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 186 by Jon, posted 11-10-2010 10:03 AM Panda has not replied

  
Panda
Member (Idle past 3734 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 205 of 744 (590986)
11-11-2010 6:10 AM
Reply to: Message 204 by Modulous
11-11-2010 5:05 AM


Re: Induction And statistical reasoning
Modulous writes:
I'm just arguing that the more modern view that has emerged in which the statistical and the inductive have been merged.
Aren't calculations the main difference between inductive logic and statistical reasoning?
Inductive logic doesn't have calculations: it just says "It happened all last year: it will probably happen next year too".
Whereas statistical reasoning calculates the 'odds' of something happening: "There is a 90% chance that it will happen next year".
Edited by Panda, : posyt

This message is a reply to:
 Message 204 by Modulous, posted 11-11-2010 5:05 AM Modulous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 206 by Modulous, posted 11-11-2010 6:29 AM Panda has replied

  
Panda
Member (Idle past 3734 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 207 of 744 (590989)
11-11-2010 6:47 AM
Reply to: Message 206 by Modulous
11-11-2010 6:29 AM


Re: Induction And statistical reasoning
Modulous writes:
No - I don't think so: Stastical reasoning can be used to make inductive inferrences and can be used to justify the confidence levels of our inductions.
I think I screwed up my previous post - my head cold is fugging my finking.
I'll try again...
*cough*
Aren't calculated 'odds' the main difference between Inductive Logic and Statistical Reasoning?
Inductive Logic doesn't require calculated values in it's conclusion: it can just say "It happened all last year: it will probably happen next year too".
Whereas Statistical Reasoning does require the chance of something happening to be calculated and stated: "There is a 90.1% chance that it will happen next year".
I would therefore describe Statistical Reasoning as a 'subset' of Inductive Logic.
Edited by Panda, : tpyos

This message is a reply to:
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Panda
Member (Idle past 3734 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 237 of 744 (591154)
11-12-2010 5:11 AM
Reply to: Message 235 by nwr
11-11-2010 6:50 PM


Re: Induction And statistical reasoning
nwr writes:
How many specific evidences to you need to support the general statement "There are 100 centimetres in a metre"?
I thought I should point out that this is a self-referencing statement.
"There are one hundred 100ths of a metre in a metre"
It is no different to saying that "Red frogs are red" or "wooden furniture is made of wood".
Maybe you should change your example?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 235 by nwr, posted 11-11-2010 6:50 PM nwr has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 238 by nwr, posted 11-12-2010 10:25 AM Panda has not replied

  
Panda
Member (Idle past 3734 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 278 of 744 (591574)
11-14-2010 7:47 PM
Reply to: Message 277 by nwr
11-14-2010 7:26 PM


Re: Induction And Science
nwr writes:
Straggler writes:
ALL of our scientific theories are based on the constancy of natural phenomeon.
Actually, they are not. It gets hotter in the summer and colder in the winter, which is not constant.
So...the unchanging pattern of summers being hotter and winters being colder (in the northern hemisphere) has no constancy?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 277 by nwr, posted 11-14-2010 7:26 PM nwr has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 279 by nwr, posted 11-14-2010 8:11 PM Panda has replied

  
Panda
Member (Idle past 3734 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 280 of 744 (591579)
11-14-2010 9:05 PM
Reply to: Message 279 by nwr
11-14-2010 8:11 PM


Re: Induction And Science
nwr writes:
Varying between hot and cold is still change, and change is not the same as constant.
Please answer the question I asked and not the question you made up in your head.
Panda writes:
So...the unchanging pattern of summers being hotter and winters being colder (in the northern hemisphere) has no constancy?
Edited by Panda, : typo

This message is a reply to:
 Message 279 by nwr, posted 11-14-2010 8:11 PM nwr has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 281 by nwr, posted 11-14-2010 9:12 PM Panda has replied

  
Panda
Member (Idle past 3734 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 294 of 744 (591614)
11-15-2010 5:25 AM
Reply to: Message 281 by nwr
11-14-2010 9:12 PM


Re: Induction And Science
nwr writes:
The question asks whether a variable has some constancy.
No.
A specific pattern is defined and fixed.
"a combination of qualities, acts, tendencies, etc., forming a consistent or characteristic arrangement."
This is the normal meaning of pattern when discussing seasons and weather.
Summers are consistantly warmer than winters (in the northern hemisphere).
Now, answer the question or retract your initial comment.
Panda writes:
So...the unchanging pattern of summers being hotter and winters being colder (in the northern hemisphere) has no constancy?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 281 by nwr, posted 11-14-2010 9:12 PM nwr has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 308 by nwr, posted 11-15-2010 2:58 PM Panda has not replied

  
Panda
Member (Idle past 3734 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 297 of 744 (591657)
11-15-2010 11:50 AM
Reply to: Message 296 by Jon
11-15-2010 11:33 AM


Re: Induction And Science
Jon writes:
Straggler writes:
But I am intrigued to know how your non-inductive science argument distinguishes between genuine scientific conclusions and things like omphalism if you are going to abandon prediction (leading to discovery) as the key difference?
What is it about 'predictions' ('logical consequences') that make them impossible given non-inductive reasoning?
What makes you think that 'predictions' are the same as 'logical consequences'?
Jon writes:
Straggler writes:
Is it possible to make any scientific conclusion pertaining to any future event without that "assumption"?
What is a 'scientific conclusion'? How does it relate to 'knowledge'?
Why do you think that a 'scientific conclusion' is not related to 'knowledge'?
Jon writes:
Straggler writes:
Do we not "know" when eclipses are going to occur?
No.
Yes.
Jon, do you really think that there is any point to what you posted?
You answered 2 questions with 2 more questions and then just asserted "No".

This message is a reply to:
 Message 296 by Jon, posted 11-15-2010 11:33 AM Jon has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 299 by cavediver, posted 11-15-2010 12:36 PM Panda has seen this message but not replied
 Message 300 by Jon, posted 11-15-2010 12:36 PM Panda has replied

  
Panda
Member (Idle past 3734 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 303 of 744 (591679)
11-15-2010 12:56 PM
Reply to: Message 300 by Jon
11-15-2010 12:36 PM


Re: Induction And Science
Jon writes:
I never claimed it was or it wasn't. I merely asked a question.
Ok. Then here's my question:
Do you think that a 'scientific conclusion' is not related to 'knowledge'?
Please explain how you came to your answer.
Jon writes:
No.
Panda writes:
Yes.
Good. Now, how do you know?
Hmm...I am having trouble following your equivocation.
Did you actually mean:
Now, how do you "know"?
or perhaps
Now, how do you know?
When you are constantly bouncing between the different meanings of words, it becomes very difficult to follow which definition you are currently using.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 300 by Jon, posted 11-15-2010 12:36 PM Jon has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 313 by Jon, posted 11-15-2010 4:27 PM Panda has replied

  
Panda
Member (Idle past 3734 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


(1)
Message 314 of 744 (591740)
11-15-2010 5:39 PM
Reply to: Message 313 by Jon
11-15-2010 4:27 PM


Re: Induction And Science
Jon writes:
Don't be petty. If you mean something special by "know" as opposed to know, then lay it out so you can be understood. No one, though, is interested in word games.
Thank you for the quote.
I will use it to remind you to stop being petty and that no-one is interested in word games.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 313 by Jon, posted 11-15-2010 4:27 PM Jon has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 315 by Jon, posted 11-15-2010 7:42 PM Panda has not replied

  
Panda
Member (Idle past 3734 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 325 of 744 (591793)
11-16-2010 5:27 AM
Reply to: Message 311 by Jon
11-15-2010 3:58 PM


Re: Induction And Science
Jon writes:
You are obviously working with looser criteria for 'knowledge' than am I or nwr. This is fine, so long as you lay out your criteria and demonstrate their relevance to the scientific method.
Jon writes:
Don't be petty. If you mean something special by "know" as opposed to know, then lay it out so you can be understood. No one, though, is interested in word games.
Well, it didn't take long for the hypocrisy to shine through...
Edited by Panda, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 311 by Jon, posted 11-15-2010 3:58 PM Jon has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 330 by Jon, posted 11-16-2010 10:24 AM Panda has not replied

  
Panda
Member (Idle past 3734 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 332 of 744 (591835)
11-16-2010 10:30 AM
Reply to: Message 331 by Jon
11-16-2010 10:25 AM


Re: Induction And Science
Jon writes:
Deductively.
Jon writes:
Do you actually plan to participate here, or are you just interested in attempting pot shots from the sidelines?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 331 by Jon, posted 11-16-2010 10:25 AM Jon has not replied

  
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