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Author Topic:   Does Science Truly Represent Reality?
Doddy
Member (Idle past 5935 days)
Posts: 563
From: Brisbane, Australia
Joined: 01-04-2007


Message 12 of 61 (414911)
08-06-2007 10:03 PM
Reply to: Message 7 by GDR
08-06-2007 5:45 PM


GDR writes:
This cat knows when someone is about to die.
No, you can't conclude that from what was given in the story. What is his hit rate? Sure, he may have been present at 25 deaths, but how many deaths did he miss, and how many times did he curl up next to someone who didn't die? This information needs to be known before we can conclude an effect.
I think this is a clear case of confirmation bias, and I think the NEMJ should have pointed that out. I doubt people remember that the cat was there when the person lives, and I doubt they think of the cat if the cat wasn't there when a person dies. They only remember the hits, and forget the misses.
GDR writes:
It seems to me that this cat has some sense that we don't know about that enables it to sense when a person is near death.
More likely, it is using the senses we do know about in a way that we don't know specifically. For example, it could be smelling ketone bodies produced as tissues break-down. Seems the author of that story has a similar idea, considering how many times "sniffs the air" was mentioned.
But I should have to be convinced that there is actually a real effect before I look into the mechanisms.
Edited by Doddy, : punctuation

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This message is a reply to:
 Message 7 by GDR, posted 08-06-2007 5:45 PM GDR has replied

Replies to this message:
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Doddy
Member (Idle past 5935 days)
Posts: 563
From: Brisbane, Australia
Joined: 01-04-2007


Message 14 of 61 (414915)
08-06-2007 10:10 PM
Reply to: Message 11 by GDR
08-06-2007 7:28 PM


GDR writes:
there is stuff going on that we know nothing about as we don't know what we don't know.
You're interpreting that the wrong way.
We don't know what we don't know. That is to say, that for all we know we could have a good grasp on reality, or we mightn't, but the important thing is that we don't know.
In order to know if we are missing part of the story, we need the full story. And in order to know if the full story is really full, we need the full story. We can't know.
Thus, I'd rewrite that as: "We can't know what we don't know".

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This message is a reply to:
 Message 11 by GDR, posted 08-06-2007 7:28 PM GDR has replied

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Doddy
Member (Idle past 5935 days)
Posts: 563
From: Brisbane, Australia
Joined: 01-04-2007


Message 26 of 61 (415037)
08-07-2007 8:35 PM
Reply to: Message 21 by GDR
08-07-2007 6:19 PM


GDR writes:
Well it fooled the publishers of "The New England Journal of Medicine" so I figure I'm in pretty good company.
It might not have fooled them. Maybe they just thought it was an interesting story that people would like to read. Like Harry Potter - few people think that real.
GDR writes:
He is able to discern which deaths are really imminent and disregard the others.
Harry can cast spells with his wand. Hearsay and anecdotes, not reality.
GDR writes:
I don't imagine that anyone has suggested that it proves anything but it is a curiosity about which we can speculate.
You'd be suprised. This story will turn up on psychic's websites for decades to come.

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Doddy
Member (Idle past 5935 days)
Posts: 563
From: Brisbane, Australia
Joined: 01-04-2007


Message 43 of 61 (415224)
08-08-2007 8:53 PM
Reply to: Message 42 by Archer Opteryx
08-08-2007 6:16 PM


Re: Science in the Cave
Archer Opterix writes:
The absence of observers poses no inherent problem with its existing.
The problem is, it also poses no problem for it not existing.

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Doddy
Member (Idle past 5935 days)
Posts: 563
From: Brisbane, Australia
Joined: 01-04-2007


Message 45 of 61 (415244)
08-08-2007 10:33 PM
Reply to: Message 44 by jar
08-08-2007 9:11 PM


Re: Science in the Cave
Because one can make any assumption that one likes. Something not observed could be assumed to not exist, or it could be assumed to exist, or it could be assumed to be part-way between existing and not.
We can only be sure of something existing once we observe it. Else, it can't be said to exist or not, as either will be an assumption.

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