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Author Topic:   What is a Theory?
Parasomnium
Member
Posts: 2224
Joined: 07-15-2003


Message 36 of 249 (494051)
01-13-2009 8:18 AM
Reply to: Message 32 by erikp
01-13-2009 6:33 AM


Falsifiability: theory and practice
erikp writes:
I concede the point, however, that the statement that every falsifiable theory will eventually be falsified, is remains unproven. It requires proving that every collection of future observations for a theory, must contain at least one observation that will contradict the theory. It is not trivial to prove this.
It is impossible to prove this, if only because "every collection of future observations" describes a practically infinite number of observations.
Also, if a certain aspect of reality behaves according to certain basic rules - be they mathematically expressible or not - and if your theory happens to state these rules exactly, then it is impossible in practice to make an observation that falsifies your theory.
But this does not mean that the theory isn't falsifiable in principle, because that only requires you to be able to state an observation that would falsify it, if and when it were made.
Therefore it is possible to have a falsifiable theory which, due to its exact coincidence with reality, must forever remain unfalsified, which disproves the statement that every falsifiable theory will eventually be falsified.
Only falsifiable theories which are in fact false, may eventually be falsified.

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science." - Charles Darwin.
Did you know that most of the time your computer is doing nothing? What if you could make it do something really useful? Like helping scientists understand diseases? Your computer could even be instrumental in finding a cure for HIV/AIDS. Wouldn't that be something? If you agree, then join World Community Grid now and download a simple, free tool that lets you and your computer do your share in helping humanity. After all, you are part of it, so why not take part in it?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 32 by erikp, posted 01-13-2009 6:33 AM erikp has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 40 by erikp, posted 01-13-2009 12:19 PM Parasomnium has replied

  
Parasomnium
Member
Posts: 2224
Joined: 07-15-2003


Message 50 of 249 (494094)
01-13-2009 4:31 PM
Reply to: Message 40 by erikp
01-13-2009 12:19 PM


Re: Falsifiability: theory and practice
erikp writes:
Exactly.
We use theories that are (currently) impossible to prove false; but which are (necessarily) false.
"Exactly"?
Have you been paying attention?
Somehow you managed to misunderstand what I was trying to tell you, namely that not every theory is necessarily false. Unless nature behaves in a haphazard way it is possible to have a theory that is spot on. We may not know it to be so, but that doesn't matter, it's possible for a theory to be the exact truth about some aspect of nature. The theory may predict observations A, B, and C, but we know that if we observe D, E, or F, then the theory is false. That takes care of the falsifiability of the theory. Now, unbeknownst to us, the theory is absolutely correct, so we will never observe D, E, or F, or any other observation that would falsify the theory.
What I'm saying is: you're wrong, not all theories are necessarily false.

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science." - Charles Darwin.
Did you know that most of the time your computer is doing nothing? What if you could make it do something really useful? Like helping scientists understand diseases? Your computer could even be instrumental in finding a cure for HIV/AIDS. Wouldn't that be something? If you agree, then join World Community Grid now and download a simple, free tool that lets you and your computer do your share in helping humanity. After all, you are part of it, so why not take part in it?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 40 by erikp, posted 01-13-2009 12:19 PM erikp has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 51 by Annafan, posted 01-14-2009 9:42 AM Parasomnium has replied

  
Parasomnium
Member
Posts: 2224
Joined: 07-15-2003


Message 52 of 249 (494107)
01-14-2009 10:19 AM
Reply to: Message 51 by Annafan
01-14-2009 9:42 AM


Re: Scope is necessarilly limited
By and large, I think what you say is reasonable enough. When dealing with real life theories, your scenario is usually what happens.
Bearing that in mind, I'll just add the following:
I think the universe is non-perverse, meaning that it works according to a fixed and finite set of rules1. The hypothetical theory I mentioned would be an exhaustive description of any part of the workings of the universe that could be separated from the rest without making it incomplete. Given the aforementioned fixed and finite set of rules, I think such a theory would definitely be possible, in which case we would have a falsifiable theory that would reflect the ultimate truth and would therefore never be falsified in practice. It would be an example of a theory which is not necessarily false.
1Except for Belgium of course.

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science." - Charles Darwin.
Did you know that most of the time your computer is doing nothing? What if you could make it do something really useful? Like helping scientists understand diseases? Your computer could even be instrumental in finding a cure for HIV/AIDS. Wouldn't that be something? If you agree, then join World Community Grid now and download a simple, free tool that lets you and your computer do your share in helping humanity. After all, you are part of it, so why not take part in it?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 51 by Annafan, posted 01-14-2009 9:42 AM Annafan has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 57 by Annafan, posted 01-14-2009 10:48 AM Parasomnium has not replied
 Message 61 by erikp, posted 01-14-2009 12:38 PM Parasomnium has replied

  
Parasomnium
Member
Posts: 2224
Joined: 07-15-2003


Message 56 of 249 (494111)
01-14-2009 10:33 AM
Reply to: Message 55 by NosyNed
01-14-2009 10:29 AM


Re: Scope is necessarilly limited
Newsflash: The heliocentric theory, overthrown almost eight years ago, will be reinstated next Tuesday.
Edited by Parasomnium, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 55 by NosyNed, posted 01-14-2009 10:29 AM NosyNed has not replied

  
Parasomnium
Member
Posts: 2224
Joined: 07-15-2003


Message 64 of 249 (494130)
01-14-2009 1:17 PM
Reply to: Message 61 by erikp
01-14-2009 12:38 PM


Re: Scope is necessarilly limited
erikp writes:
quote:
I think such a theory would definitely be possible, in which case we would have a falsifiable theory that would reflect the ultimate truth and would therefore never be falsified in practice.
Not one theory in the current body of science claims this.
I am not speaking of a theory in the current body of science. I am talking about the logical possibility of a hypothetical theory that's spot on with regard to an aspect of nature.
What's more, Gdel's second incompleteness theory, which is supported by formal proof, says that a theory that makes statements concerning its own consistency (truth), is necessarily inconsistent (false).
Where did I say that the theory makes claims about its own consistency?
A theory can therefore not claim its own truth. In addition to that, any sufficiently complex theory is falsifiable by an infinite number of future statements, and is therefore eternally unproven.
You have a strange idea of falsifiability.
In those circumstances, how could anybody ever claim the ultimate truth of such theory?
It doesn't matter whether we can claim that our theory is absolutely true. We may not even know it. But it's possible that it is. That's all I'm saying.
A theory falsifiable by a finite number of facts, can be completely true, and will be proven after observing the last fact. A theory falsifiable by 10 facts and not falsified by any of them, is true. The same for 9,8,7,6,5,...,2,1 facts. What about zero facts?
The principle of continuity demands that a theory falsifiable by zero facts and (obviously) not falsified by them, is true. Therefore, unfalsifiable theories must be considered: true.
Again, what a strange concept of falsifiability you have. In the scientific community 'falsifiability' means that it is possible to state at least one observation that would invalidate ('falsify') the theory. If you cannot do so your theory is considered unscientific. That's what scientists mean by falsifiability.
Here's an example of a falsifiable theory: black swans do not exist. If no one has ever seen a black swan, we don't know if the theory is true or not, but we know it is falsifiable because we can think of an observation that would falsify it: if we see a black swan anywhere, we will know the theory is false.
Now for an example of an unfalsifiable theory, solipsism. It goes something like this: "I alone exist and everything I see around me is a figment of my imagination." There is no observation anyone can point to that would falsify it, because I could always say that it's just another figment of my imagination, as is the person arguing it.
Obviously, unfalsifiable theories must not be considered true. They might be true, or they might be false, but we'll never know and because of that, they're useless. They are simply not viable as theories.
A true theory can therefore only consist of (necessarily past) facts and unfalsifiable claims (religion).
Utter bollocks.
Edited by Parasomnium, : No reason given.

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science." - Charles Darwin.
Did you know that most of the time your computer is doing nothing? What if you could make it do something really useful? Like helping scientists understand diseases? Your computer could even be instrumental in finding a cure for HIV/AIDS. Wouldn't that be something? If you agree, then join World Community Grid now and download a simple, free tool that lets you and your computer do your share in helping humanity. After all, you are part of it, so why not take part in it?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 61 by erikp, posted 01-14-2009 12:38 PM erikp has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 66 by erikp, posted 01-14-2009 1:47 PM Parasomnium has not replied

  
Parasomnium
Member
Posts: 2224
Joined: 07-15-2003


Message 112 of 249 (494195)
01-14-2009 7:13 PM
Reply to: Message 79 by erikp
01-14-2009 2:41 PM


Re: All or Nothing
erikp writes:
The problem is that the theory is infinitely falsifiable, and that we therefore reasonably can assume that it will eventually be proven false, and that it is therefore false.
Now I get it! Murphy's Law has become Murphy's Theory: "If a theory can be proven wrong, it will be."
Seriously, Erik, science does not deal with different magnitudes of falsifiability. Either a theory is falsifiable or it isn't. If it is, power to the theory. If it isn't, it's not considered even to be a theory.
For scientists, unfalsifiability is a bad thing. For you, it is the holy grail, it seems. When you have finally arrived at an unfalsifiable theory, you yell triumphantly: Ha! My theory is unfalsifiable, it can never be proven wrong. Therefore it must be true.
This thread could do with two consecutive days of Rrhain.

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science." - Charles Darwin.
Did you know that most of the time your computer is doing nothing? What if you could make it do something really useful? Like helping scientists understand diseases? Your computer could even be instrumental in finding a cure for HIV/AIDS. Wouldn't that be something? If you agree, then join World Community Grid now and download a simple, free tool that lets you and your computer do your share in helping humanity. After all, you are part of it, so why not take part in it?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 79 by erikp, posted 01-14-2009 2:41 PM erikp has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 113 by Modulous, posted 01-14-2009 7:33 PM Parasomnium has not replied
 Message 119 by Rrhain, posted 01-15-2009 1:34 AM Parasomnium has not replied
 Message 120 by erikp, posted 01-15-2009 3:19 AM Parasomnium has replied

  
Parasomnium
Member
Posts: 2224
Joined: 07-15-2003


Message 121 of 249 (494227)
01-15-2009 3:43 AM
Reply to: Message 120 by erikp
01-15-2009 3:19 AM


Re: All or Nothing
erikp writes:
In this observation Magnitude of Falsifiability (MoF) is a key concept. Therefore, I must reject the idea that falsifiability should not be quantified. It can be quantified and its quantification is instrumental in supporting the case.
If it is a key concept, then why did we have to wait for 100+ messages before it entered the conversation? And I might mention that it wasn't even you who brought it up, but me. Furthermore, I also stated that science doesn't deal with it, because it's a non-item. Now all of a sudden you latch onto it as a key concept. Sounds like a bit of an ad hoc argument to me, which makes your theory about unfalsifiable theories unfalsifiable itself, and therefore, in your opinion, true, while the world at large just shrugs its shoulders and carries on not bothering any more.
The Rrhain shower was short but refreshing.

"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge: it is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science." - Charles Darwin.
Did you know that most of the time your computer is doing nothing? What if you could make it do something really useful? Like helping scientists understand diseases? Your computer could even be instrumental in finding a cure for HIV/AIDS. Wouldn't that be something? If you agree, then join World Community Grid now and download a simple, free tool that lets you and your computer do your share in helping humanity. After all, you are part of it, so why not take part in it?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 120 by erikp, posted 01-15-2009 3:19 AM erikp has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 122 by erikp, posted 01-15-2009 4:03 AM Parasomnium has not replied

  
Parasomnium
Member
Posts: 2224
Joined: 07-15-2003


Message 130 of 249 (494239)
01-15-2009 4:43 AM
Reply to: Message 127 by Rrhain
01-15-2009 4:36 AM


Beautiful!
Rrhain writes:
{about perfect and other theories}
What a gem of an argument, thanks!
(Not that it will convince Erik, of course...)
Edited by Parasomnium, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 127 by Rrhain, posted 01-15-2009 4:36 AM Rrhain has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 135 by erikp, posted 01-15-2009 5:14 AM Parasomnium has not replied

  
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