A fourth possibility, that certain systems are chaotic and cannot be pre-determined significantly in advance of occurrance.
Chaos theory - Wikipedia
Among the characteristics of chaotic systems, described below, is the sensitivity to initial conditions (popularly referred to as the butterfly effect). As a result of this sensitivity, the behavior of systems that exhibit chaos appears to be random, exhibiting an exponential error dispersion, even though the system is deterministic in the sense that it is well defined and contains no random parameters. Examples of such systems include the atmosphere, the solar system, plate tectonics, the phosphate starvation signaling pathway in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, turbulent fluids, economics, population growth and the vast variety of thermodynamically open systems operating far from equilibrium.
It could be that choice is one source of chaos in some systems, and not just by humans.
The problem I have with hard determinism is that we do not know anywhere near enough of many variables to come close to tweaking out the deterministic paths -- we don't know what we don't know (ala mr obvious Rumsfield), so we can't know whether determinism applies or not.
Today I had sugar in my coffee, but normally I don't have sugar on anything. It was a spur of the moment decision, and confirmed my personal preference for coffee without.
Reason?
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