When Will The End-Times Be And How Will We Know?

Mind? I wouldn't even notice. My pension is deposited automatically. My rent is withdrawn automatically. I pay for groceries and whatever else I need with Interac. The only thing I use cash for is laundry and panhandlers. You're the only one who seems to be obsessed with being "forced" to pay. You're already forced to pay taxes, aren't you? They could still hoard the things with real value, like food.

yeah since the pandemic started i only use cash to pay my barber

Well, Paul commanded the Thessalonians to prove everything.But remember, the commands of a fantasy are also fantasy. As James told the twelve tribes. If they have not been fulfilled, you can not count them as being fulfilled. You don't "know" any such thing. A few decades ago, Hal Lindsey popularized some nonsense about the "beast" of Revelation 13 being the EU. That prediction failed - and now you are predicting that it will unfail.A little over two centuries ago, prophecyy nuts "knew" that Napoleon was the AntiChrist. In the 1930s-40s, they "knew" that Hitler was the AntiChrist. Then they "knew" that Stalin was the AntiChrist. Then the Soviet Union split the offices of General Secretary of the Communist Party and Premier between Brezhnev and Kosigin and spoiled any further predictions of a single Soviet AntiChrist.The predictions have been consistently wrong. They're nothing but an attempt to twist the Bible into confirming your wishful thinking about the modern world.

So then still completely incapable of answer a simple question like "what do you think evolution is and how do you think it works", you continue to try in vain to baffle us with pure bullshit. So sadly typical. Yep, the Texas sharpshooter fallacy yet again:

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The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is an informal fallacy which is committed when differences in data are ignored, but similarities are overemphasized. From this reasoning, a false conclusion is inferred. This fallacy is the philosophical or rhetorical application of the multiple comparisons problem (in statistics) and apophenia (in cognitive psychology). It is related to the clustering illusion, which is the tendency in human cognition to interpret patterns where none actually exist.

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The name comes from a joke about a Texan who fires some gunshots at the side of a barn, then paints a shooting target centered on the tightest cluster of hits and claims to be a sharpshooter.

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So decades and even a over a century after the alleged facts, early Christians busy creating the mythos of their new god decide to make him fulfill Old Testament "prophesies" by retconning his story accordingly. And of course since many/most of them weren't Jewish, they didn't even understand most of those "prophesies" ("Christians don't know how to read the Bible." -- Jewish character in Mein Bester Feind). Just like that Texas sharpshooter, they created the targets after the fact in order to make it look like they had hit the mark.There are several criteria for an actual successful prediction, none of which are met by such Christian claims of "fulfilled prophesy."Yet again you need to SHOW US that those claims are legitimate and not just simply more of your standard BS. That's not how probability works. Probability ranges from zero (impossible) to one (dead certainty), inclusive. Probability can never be greater than one, let alone your "10¹⁷".So does this mean that you were unable to understand what your "friend" was telling you -- why does this sound like yet another urban legend? -- or that he doesn't know what he is talking about despite your story that he teaches this stuff on the university level?ABE:
And out of curiosity, even though you are too clueless to be able to understand the question let alone try to answer it, how did your friend determine the probability of a single prophesy being fulfilled? I mean how precisely did he arrive at that single probability? What assumptions with associated numbers did he studiously use?I very strongly suspect that he just pulled a number out of his ass, like something around 1/133 (ie, P = 0.0075) which raised to the 8th power would give us: P(8 independent prophecies) = P⁸ = 0.00000000000000001 (AKA 10^(-17), which is your 1/10¹⁷).IOW, his "calculated probability of a single fulfilled prophesy" is nothing be a SWAG, some wild ass guess that he pulled out of his ass! And since you constantly consume apologist bullshit, the terroir of his claim tasted so familiar that you just gobbled it up. 
And, of course yet again, you will not answer any of our questions but rather simply spew even more BS nonsense.So sadly typical.

Edited by dwise1, : ABE

In a 1947 cartoon Bugs Bunny predicts that Porky Pig's shotgun will backfire, singeing PP's hair. In 1949 cartoon, Porky Pig's shotgun backfires, singeing PP's hair. Prophecy fulfilled! Warner Bros. studio's inerrancy proved! (And now we know that Elmer Fudd is the true AntiChrist!)

Dwise, the professor at Murray State based his
calculation on the eight predictions being correct.To correctly predict these eight distinct events in
one's life, and to do so hundreds of years in advance,
is so difficult that the chances of being correct on
all eight account is 10 to the 17th power.There is no mistake that the NT records the fulfillment
of these prophecies.You might not believe that these prophecies were
fulfilled, or that they were even made. But, what you
believe has nothing to do with the probability of them
being fulfilled.Most people, including Christians, believe that all
Israelites are Jews. And many have lost faith in
prophecies about Israel because they know this
small country in the Middle East cannot fulfill all
the prophecies about it.Understand this: all Jews are Israelites, but most
Israelites are not Jews.Jews are descendants of Judah. Although the
tribe of Benjamin was later incorporated.The Jews was promised that the scepter would not
depart from them. Joseph's two sons Ephraim and
Manasseh received the birthright blessings as well
as the name Israel.The last days prophecies for all tribes is in Genesis
49 and Deuteronomy 33.The first place in the Bible where the Word Jew is
used is in 2Kings 16:5-7. The Jews are in a war
against both Syria and Israel.The 10 tribes of the Northern Kingdom of Israel were
conquered by the Assyrians in 718 BC. The Southern
of Judah was conquered by Babylon in 586 BC.A careful study of history shows that the Germans
(Deutchlanders) are present day Assyria.As far as evolution goes, I was only getting assumptions
from people who insisted it was a fact.I was debating with people who considered worms and
warthogs as distant family.How can they even trust their minds/thoughts, which
are nothing more than mutations.

Fictional bullshit!

Complete and utter blithering nonsense! His objective was to calculate the probability of eight predictions being fulfilled. That objective depended on determining the probability of a single prediction being fulfilled. In order to make that determination, he had to have based his MATH on SOMETHING!According to you, he didn't even base it on jack-shit! You fucking idiot!Are you really such an idiot that you cannot understand a very simple mathematical concept? Calculating the probability of an event happening requires the creation of a mathematical model of that event!Are you really such a complete idiot that you cannot understand that very simple fact?What is the probability that you will either fail to understand or willfully refuse to understand any of this? Very rapidly approaching 100%, dead certainty. But I'm going to explain it anyway because others reading this might learn something, even though you work so hard to prevent yourself from learning anything. IOW, I know full well that I am yet again casting pearls before a swine.Games of chance are events that are fairly easy to model because they are well defined; eg:

• An American-style roulette wheel has 38 slots: 36 numbered 1 through 36 and two more which are marked double-zero and triple-zero. Half the numbered slots are red and the other half black -- double-zero and triple-zero are green.
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  All bets are based solely on the numbered slots with the two zero slots biasing the odds in the house's favor. Bets can be for an individual number or on a grouping of the numbers; eg, black/red, even/odd, high/low/middle range, column.
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  The payoff for a bet is based on its probability of occurring (not including the biasing of the zero slots); eg:
  • P(any single number) = 1/38 ≈ 1/36, so payoff is 36 to 1.
  • P(a particular column) = 12/38 ≈ 1/3, so payoff is 3 to 1.
  • P(1-12, 13-24, or 25-36) = 12/38 ≈ 1/3, so payoff is 3 to 1.
  • P(red or black) = 18/38 ≈ 1/2, so payoff is 2 to 1.
  • P(even or odd) = 18/38 ≈ 1/2, so payoff is 2 to 1.
  An illustration of how the zero slots bias the game in favor of the house, consider single-number bets. The house will have to pay out once every 38 spins, but only pays out 36:1, so the house gets 38 chips and pays back 36 ending up with a 2 chip profit. The house always wins.
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• In games involving six-sided dice (numbers 1-6 on each side), each roll of the dice is an individual independent event. So what is the probability of rolling a particular number?
  • Using one die, the probability of rolling any particular number, 1-6, is one in six, 1/6.
  • Using two dice, there are 36 possible outcomes producing a number from 2 to 12. Some of those numbers are more likely than others. Reminding you that there are 36 possible outcomes, multiple ones of which can produce the same number:
    • only one way to roll a 2 or 12, so their probability is 1/36.
    • 2 ways to roll a 3 or an 11, so their probability is 2/36 = 1/18.
    • 3 ways to roll a 4 or a 10, so their probability is 3/36 = 1/12.
    • 4 ways to roll a 5 or a 9, so their probability is 4/36 = 1/9.
    • 5 ways to roll a 6 or a 8, so their probability is 5/36.
    • 6 ways to roll a 7, so its probability is 6/36 = 1/6.
• Card games are the same, but too complicate for the scope of this reply. The point with them is that you have (assuming standard deck of playing cards, a California prayerbook (my winning answer in a Trivial Pursuit tournament against my minister's team), with no jokers):
  • There's one chance in 52 of drawing dealt a particular card.
  • There's 1 in 4 chance of drawing a particular suit.
  • There's 1 in 13 chance of drawing a particular number (including ace or a face card).
  The probability of any particular poker hand can be calculated from there, though you also need to keep track of the depletion of the cards already drawn from the pool of cards (eg, first card dealt means a 51-card deck, second card makes it 50, etc, plus there are fewer of what you've drawn to now draw from).

Yet another example of the need for a proper math model is my MONKEY program which I created circa 1990 from my software specification derived from Richard Dawkins' WEASEL in Chapter 3, "Accumulating Small Changes", of The Blind Watchmaker -- on a site which collected WEASEL programs, mine was deemed most true to the original.Selecting the right math model was the entire idea behind WEASEL, because creationists are infamous for always using bogus probability models. Their single-step selection has absolutely nothing to do with reality, with how life works, and hence with how evolution works! Plus the creationist "model" is abysmally bad. The proper math model to model how life works is cumulative selection which is based on how life works -- duh? And in WEASEL's (and MONKEY's) task it would take creationism's single-step selection quadrillions of years for a hyper-supercomputer to gain just a one-in-a-million chance of succeeding, evolution's cumulative selection accomplishes in seconds, every time without fail. That is why the correct math model is of the utmost importance in any calculation of probabilities.BTW, don't rely on Dembski and Royal Truman's bullshit lies about WEASEL. 
The objective in this evolution is to demonstrate that in order to calculate the probability of an event one must develop a mathematical model of that event! Hopefully a proper one!So the question to you was what your "math expert's" math model was for a single fulfilled Bible prophecy. Why a math model? Because he intended to use it to perform math with! No math model, no math! Duh?So then JUST WHAT THE HELL DID HE BASE HIS PROBABILITY CALCULATIONS ON?wickless, you fucking idiot! Or should that be uttely ignorant swine since I'm about to cast some more pearls before you?A probability of 10¹⁷? Even after I had already told you that a probability can be no greater than ONE? You're like Trump and his MAGAts: we think that they couldn't possibly sink any lower and yet they eagerly dig away! As you yourself keep doing.Again, it is impossible for a probability to be greater than one. 10¹⁷ is extremely greater than one, like by a factor of 10¹⁷. Duh????If that professor is really saying that, then having him teach probability at a university is a criminal act that must be stopped immediately! Rather, I would assume that you are just incapable to understanding what he had told you. Or else you are deliberately lying yet again!We already know all too well that you're a fucking idiot. We would rather not realize the same of him. Just as there is no mistake that other religions also record the fulfillment of their prophecies. What makes your false claims worth more than theirs?Anybody could claim fulfilled prophecy, so how is anybody to tell when it's true? Those claims would need to be tested. But how? You would need to establish some kind of reliable criteria for verifying such claims.Have you done that, applied reliable criteria for verifying those "fulfilled prophecies"? No, I didn't think so. But I have seen several treatments of such testing. Your claims of fulfilled prophecy are all bullshit.So here's the most likely scenario I'm seeing: Here are commonly known historical reconstructions, though most don't know them as such. I seem to recall it was Washington Irving (author of "The Headless Horseman of Sleepy Hallow who in the early 1800's had written stories about our Founding Fathers and early presidents. George Washington's "I cannot tell a lie, ... I chopped down that cherry tree.", etc. Then later stories of Abraham Lincoln's extraordinary feats of honesty, etc.Any reliable criteria for testing claims of fulfilled prophecy must be able to detect and deal with that kind of falsifying historical reconstruction. The exact kind that early Christian writings are rife for.So what happens when actually reliable criteria are used to test your claims of fulfilled prophecy? They do not fare well.Your "fulfilled prophecies" are not an asset, but rather yet another problem that you need to solve.Please attend to them appropriately. For a change. No, you fucking lying sack of liquid crap! You were posted an endless stream of lies about evolution and we kept trying in vain (solely because of your fucking intransigence) to get you to tell us just what the fuck you're talking about! A vital part of which was what your particular misunderstanding of evolution is. Unless we know what total bullshit you base your "conclusions" about evolution is, we have no hope of ever understanding you, let alone try to correct you.You know full well what our questions are. Just answer the fucking questions!
​ So then you are not of Animalia? WHAT KIND OF ENTITY ARE YOU? Something cybernetic (in which case your software is really screwed up)? Not primate? Not mammal? Not amniote? Not tetrapod? Not chordate (vertebrate)? Not animalia? Just what the fuck are you? if none of those?Or do you just have your head wedged firmly up your ass ... yet again?

Edited by dwise1, : slight correction of the omission of a number

The re-birth of Israel (1948) doesn't mark the end of the end-times.

Edited by Dredge, .

You've misinterpreted what I said. Israel must be existence as a nation before the Second Coming can occur.

Edited by Dredge, .

Edited by Dredge, .

Edited by Dredge, .

As already pointed out, what you say of what that math professor had claimed is completely stupid nonsense based on extreme ignorance of basic mathematics. Are you the stupid ignoramus here or is it that other guy whom you claim to teach this subject professionally in a state university? I most sincerely hope that it is not him.Besides the glaringly obvious ignorance that probability cannot be greater than 1.0 (AKA "dead certainty" ... and nothing could be more probable than that), there is also the question of what he based his determination of the probability of one prophecy being fulfilled. Somehow he seems to have arrived at a probability of about 1/133 which is 0.0075 (or 0.75%). But how? What did he base his math model on? Because without a math model you cannot determine a probability. No math model for one prophecy being fulfilled means no probability could have been determined. Duh?? ABE:
I did offer an answer to how the professor had come up with that probability. Did he tell you? 
Of course, there is so very much more involved that just coming up with a math model. First and foremost is the need for proper criteria to determine whether a prophecy has in fact been fulfilled. Or even whether it's even actually a prophecy.In this video, Aron Ra discusses this problem giving many examples of false "fulfilled prophecies" that "true Christians" continue to claim despite their having been refuted a thousand times already (actually, this video is the first use of PRATT that I've seen outside of this forum): These criteria have been discussed elsewhere and I'm no expert, but I do know at least this much:

• A proper prophecy must be a clear and unambiguous statement. Specific locations. Specific time frames. Specific individuals involved. Vague hand-waving like "there will be wars and rumors of wars" just simply does not cut it.
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• It cannot be so ambiguous as to be open to a plethora of different interpretations, such that one could force it into an event that it. That includes the tendency to take statements that clearly apply to an entire nation as actually applying to an individual.
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• The prophecy must actually exist. There are several for which the prophecy itself no longer exists, assuming it ever did; eg, they moved to Nazareth to fulfill "he shall be called a Nazarene" despite there being no such prophecy to be found, plus the earliest historical reference to Nazareth dates from 221 CE.
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• It must be an actual prophecy. Aron Ra cites David's songs which are not deemed to be prophetic.
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• Failed prophecies must also be taken into account. Including failed prophesies which "true Christians" try to claim to be fulfilled.
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• The fulfillment must be real and verifiable.
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  For example, I could claim that I can successfully predict the winning PowerBall numbers. To prove that I can, I will post the winning numbers after they have been posted. Would you believe in my incredible powers of prophecy? Of course not!
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  Even worse, I could make up claims about one Captain (Acting Major) William Martin including an entire military career, school records, and a love letter from his girlfriend whose photo is also planted on his body. Operation Mincemeat.
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  In the biblical case, you have some figure that everybody is worshipping so they make up stories about him, stories of how he fulfilled certain prophecies. They didn't even have to be deliberate in their falsification, since the same thing happens all the time as legend grows around leading figures like urban legends.
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  So how can you tell the difference between falsified legendary BS and the real thing?

That should be enough to get some meaningful discussion started.

Edited by dwise1, : ABE

Ahh, so one sign in 2000 years. Slow process isn't it.You trying to make this fit just in line with climate change? You may have it right.It's going to be a while but, yes, the horsemen are brushing down their steeds preparing for war. Which one's first?

Not according to Jesus:

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Matthew 24:29 Immediately after the tribulation of those days shall the sun be darkened, and the moon shall not give her light, and the stars shall fall from heaven, and the powers of the heavens shall be shaken:

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30 And then shall appear the sign of the Son of man in heaven: and then shall all the tribes of the earth mourn, and they shall see the Son of man coming in the clouds of heaven with power and great glory.

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31 And he shall send his angels with a great sound of a trumpet, and they shall gather together his elect from the four winds, from one end of heaven to the other.

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32 Now learn a parable of the fig tree; When his branch is yet tender, and putteth forth leaves, ye know that summer is nigh:

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33 So likewise ye, when ye shall see all these things, know that it is near, even at the doors.

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34 Verily I say unto you, This generation shall not pass, till all these things be fulfilled.

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Visions of Apocalypse Now - Ride of the Valkyries.

Yes. It seems to me that either the second coming already happened and nobody noticed, or it will never happen.