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Author Topic:   Probability of the existence of God
dwise1
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Message 16 of 219 (464288)
04-24-2008 3:50 PM
Reply to: Message 13 by Wumpini
04-24-2008 2:34 PM


Re: As I said, I am not a scientist or a mathmetician
I believe there are only two possibilities. Either God exists or He does not exist.
You are refering to the existence of one very specific supernatural being, YHWH, AKA "God". The problem that others have been trying to point out to you is that the "evidence" that you would believe points to the existence of YHWH could instead be pointing to a myriad of other possible gods.
An analogy which may help you to understand. We stand before a door to an interior room and the question is being discussed of whether or not a specific person, Richard Dawkins (since you mentioned his name), is in that room. You state with absolute confidence that either Richard Dawkins is in that room or nobody is. There are bits and pieces of possible circumstancial evidence about that somebody might possibly be in that room, so you conclude that somebody is indeed in that room and it is most definitely Richard Dawkins. We open the door and there is indeed somebody in there, Rudy Smith.
So you see, the only either-or choice we have is that either somebody is in that room or nobody is. After determining that somebody must be in that room, it's an entirely different question as to who out of about six billion possibilities that somebody is. Ignoring the other question of whether that somebody is alone in there.
The reference to Pascal's Wager is that Pascal had assigned to the existence of God (his Catholic idea of "God") the probability of 50%, much in the fashion of your own either-or assumption. But, as I describe on my page dealing that that Wager (No webpage found at provided URL: http://members.aol.com/dwise1/cre_ev/wager.html):
quote:
There is one very basic question which never gets asked here: which god? Just because some of the gods may exist, does not mean that they all exist. Which one do you choose? Remember, if you choose the wrong one, the outcome will be the same as for not choosing any (ie, #3 and #4). Each god has roughly the same probability of existing as any other (ignoring some of the pantheon package deals out there), or that none of them exist. So choosing the right god is not 100% as presented to us, but rather is a fraction of 1%.
Even worse, you not only need to choose the right god, but you also need to choose the right theology. Some gods have a variety of theologies associated with them, each one considering itself the True Faith and the others heresies; e.g., the various sects of Christianity. So even if you choose the right god, if you choose the wrong theology, then you are just as out of luck as if you had chosen the wrong god, some times even more so. Pascal was a Catholic, so he was talking about choosing to be a Catholic. The Protestants using his Wager in vain have already chosen the wrong theology and so picked the losing side of the Wager and are trying to make losers out of everyone they proselytize to. To choose none of the gods actually turns out to be the safer bet, because, unlike the Christian god, a lot of the gods couldn't care less whether you believe in them or not.
Based upon this evidence, I would estimate the probability that God exists at very, very close to 100%. I would even say infinitely close.
To the existence of a particular sectarian fallible human idea of "God" (which is what just about everyone who would pose such a question is talking about), I would estimate the probability to be vanishingly small. Even if something were to exist that people would assume to be "God" (eg, something that would account for the "evidence" that you based your estimate on -- remember that room?), the probability that it would be the same as their idea of "God" is so remote as to be virtually zero.
or Dawkins who would assign a probability of zero.
I have seen Dawkins quoted on this question, to which he assigned a few percent probability, not zero -- quoting from memory: "I am 97% sure that God does not exist"; I think it was in that Ben Stein movie or at least mentioned in that thread here. Since scientists cannot speak in such absolute terms.
Edited by dwise1, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 13 by Wumpini, posted 04-24-2008 2:34 PM Wumpini has not replied

  
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