Probability of the existence of God

You are refering to the existence of one very specific supernatural being, YHWH, AKA "God". The problem that others have been trying to point out to you is that the "evidence" that you would believe points to the existence of YHWH could instead be pointing to a myriad of other possible gods.An analogy which may help you to understand. We stand before a door to an interior room and the question is being discussed of whether or not a specific person, Richard Dawkins (since you mentioned his name), is in that room. You state with absolute confidence that either Richard Dawkins is in that room or nobody is. There are bits and pieces of possible circumstancial evidence about that somebody might possibly be in that room, so you conclude that somebody is indeed in that room and it is most definitely Richard Dawkins. We open the door and there is indeed somebody in there, Rudy Smith.So you see, the only either-or choice we have is that either somebody is in that room or nobody is. After determining that somebody must be in that room, it's an entirely different question as to who out of about six billion possibilities that somebody is. Ignoring the other question of whether that somebody is alone in there.The reference to Pascal's Wager is that Pascal had assigned to the existence of God (his Catholic idea of "God") the probability of 50%, much in the fashion of your own either-or assumption. But, as I describe on my page dealing that that Wager (No webpage found at provided URL: http://members.aol.com/dwise1/cre_ev/wager.html):

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There is one very basic question which never gets asked here: which god? Just because some of the gods may exist, does not mean that they all exist. Which one do you choose? Remember, if you choose the wrong one, the outcome will be the same as for not choosing any (ie, #3 and #4). Each god has roughly the same probability of existing as any other (ignoring some of the pantheon package deals out there), or that none of them exist. So choosing the right god is not 100% as presented to us, but rather is a fraction of 1%.

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Even worse, you not only need to choose the right god, but you also need to choose the right theology. Some gods have a variety of theologies associated with them, each one considering itself the True Faith and the others heresies; e.g., the various sects of Christianity. So even if you choose the right god, if you choose the wrong theology, then you are just as out of luck as if you had chosen the wrong god, some times even more so. Pascal was a Catholic, so he was talking about choosing to be a Catholic. The Protestants using his Wager in vain have already chosen the wrong theology and so picked the losing side of the Wager and are trying to make losers out of everyone they proselytize to. To choose none of the gods actually turns out to be the safer bet, because, unlike the Christian god, a lot of the gods couldn't care less whether you believe in them or not.

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To the existence of a particular sectarian fallible human idea of "God" (which is what just about everyone who would pose such a question is talking about), I would estimate the probability to be vanishingly small. Even if something were to exist that people would assume to be "God" (eg, something that would account for the "evidence" that you based your estimate on -- remember that room?), the probability that it would be the same as their idea of "God" is so remote as to be virtually zero. I have seen Dawkins quoted on this question, to which he assigned a few percent probability, not zero -- quoting from memory: "I am 97% sure that God does not exist"; I think it was in that Ben Stein movie or at least mentioned in that thread here. Since scientists cannot speak in such absolute terms.Edited by dwise1, : No reason given.

Haven't you fail to incorporate the odds that it really wasn't Jesus that you received?I mean, even if ever so slightly (0.0000000001%) that it was Satan deceiving you, or aliens putting thoughts in your head, that little bit of probability brings you out of the 100% realm.If you're unwilling to consider that as a possibility, then you truley are self-dilusional.It CANNOT be 100%.... ever.

In Message 8And from your link Stephen D. Unwin - Wikipedia :

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50-50 represents "maximum ignorance"

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Unwin's calculation is hopelessly subjective, I'm not even sure that his values are even tenable.
(I doubt that I can do anything with the Excel spreadsheet, but I bet that it has similar flaws).

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I look at the expanse of the universe, I look at the design of even a simple cell, I look at the morality that is within all of us, and I look at how limited and constrained our thoughts are in this physical world that we find ourselves in, and I see evidence that God exists.

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Based upon this evidence, I would estimate the probability that God exists at very, very close to 100%. I would even say infinitely close.

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It's hard to see mere size - even the size of the universe - or human limits as evidence for God. Indeed they could be used as arguments against that existence just as easily, if not more so. And if the complexity of a cell and human morality require an outside source then surely God's complexity and morality also require a creator. Seen in this light then your evidence suggests that God does not exist.

Hi CS, I qualified my answer by stating the God of the KJV Bible.God Bless,

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"John 5:39 (KJS) Search the scriptures; for in them ye think ye have eternal life: and they are they which testify of me."

So?There's still the slim possibility that aliens were brainwashing you.

Hi CS, I entertained the idea. Then I got, "The New American Bible" out and compared it to my KJV. Genesis 1:1, John 3:16-18, Romans 3:23, Romans 6:23, Ephesians 2:8-10, and I John 3:1-3.Comparing those two Bibles I will still say I am 100% sure.For me to depend on God I must have faith that He Is.If I doubt then I have no faith.Without faith it is impossible to please God. Heb. 11:6God Bless

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"John 5:39 (KJS) Search the scriptures; for in them ye think ye have eternal life: and they are they which testify of me."

Curious non sequitur. I can't see what connects any of this to the God hypothesis.For example, the universe, you say, is vast. But this has no connection with the existence of a god unless you can show that a universe not created by a god would be much smaller.Our thoughts, you say, are limited and constrained. This, again, is irrelevant unless you can show that in a universe not created by a god we should all be transcendent omniscient supergeniuses.You do not say what it is you that you find divine about prokaryotes; and as for your claims about morality, I note that some people are in fact psychopaths.Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.

You know that aliens are not brainwashing you ... by comparing two different editions of the Bible?Talk us through this.

Or that he was brainwashing himself, or that other people/the culture he grew up in brainwashed him as a child. I'd put these two as being stout rather than slim possibilities.But there is, of course, an anorexically slim possibility that I might be brainwashing myself on the question.

How? False.Its not all or nothing. You can have a whole lot of faith, with just a little bit of doubt, or visa versa. Either way, its not 'no faith'. Meh, I follow Jesus' teachings, not old jewish folklore.God is pleased when I do things for the least of his people, whether I believe in him or not.

Hello ICANT,Sorry it took so long to reply to you! My internet is not very good in this part of the world. Thank you for your welcome to this forum. From all the replies that I received to my question, yours was the most rational. I agree with you completely that God exists! Anyone who denies the existence of God has been deceived by Satan!It is quite interesting that many people who spend a lot of time digging into the complexities of the physical world can become convinced that there is nothing outside of their natural existence. They seem to be blinded by Satan! In Africa where I live it would be very uncommon to find an individual that does not believe in the spiritual world. This would include those who consider themselves intellectuals.You are entirely correct that we are not allowed to doubt the existence of God. God Himself has told mankind that we are without excuse. We cannot deny the evidence! (Romans 1; 14:23)I am sure someone will respond with something about fairies, and trolls, and Santa Claus, and maybe Superman, I don't know.My original question was "can we assign a probability to the existence of God?" My question was not what is the probability that trolls, fairies, or Santa Claus exists? Therefore, it is perfectly reasonable for me to use a dichotomy. Either God exists or he does not exist. I do not have to address each and every other possibility.For example, if I have a deck of cards I can address the probability that the card that I draw will be an ace. If I draw one card either it will be an ace or it will not be an ace, those are the only two options. The probability is about 7.7% that I will draw an ace. The probability is therefore 92.3% that I will not draw an ace. Since I am only dealing with aces, I do not need to break that 92.3% down into all of its component possibilities. The same is true with God. Either God exists or He does not exist.It appears that those who choose to deny the evidence would assign a probability close to zero related to God’s existence. Those who can see that there is some evidence but who are not convinced would assign a probability between zero and 100% depending upon how convincing they view the evidence. And those such as myself and ICANT who have become convinced by the evidence would assign a probability of 100%. We know that God exists! There are no other possibilities.My question has been answered. Scientists do not have the ability to assign a probability to the existence of God! It seems that science is limited to those things that can be observed with the senses, and it appears that science attempts to deny the existence of everything else. Maybe if they would close their eyes and look around them they may see a whole world that they have missed!Is there a chance that God exists: YesIs there evidence to prove the existence of God: YesCan we determine the probability of God’s existence: YesProbability of God’s existence based upon the evidence: 100%Thanks a lot for your input

Has science proven that life can arise from non-living matter? Or is abiogenesis an unproven theory? It seems that these theories always take the position that given enough time, even the miraculous can occur! It would be much easier (and much safer) to attribute the miracle to God!May God get the glory!

OK what is the evidence?

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There is no better love between 2 people than mutual respect for each other

I'm going to figure the probability that you personally know someone named "Rudolphus." Since the options are (1) you do, or (2) you don't, I will assume that there is a fifty percent probability that you know someone with this name. Using this logic, if I surveyed the world, I should expect half of the people I ask to say that they do know somebody named "Rudolphus."Now, I'm confident that most people in the world will actually say they do not know anybody named "Rudolphus." So, the probability that you, specifically, know somebody named "Rudolphus" is quite low, and the probability that you do not know somebody named "Rudolphus" is quite high. Yet, this example provides a simple yes/no dichotomy.The fact that an example exists in which a yes/no dichotomy does not yield a 50-50 probability shows that you cannot assume 50-50 for any yes/no situation based on the fact that there are only two options. There are more factors than number of alternatives. If, by miraculous, you mean "amazing, wonderful, really neat, exciting": yes, you're right. But, like in the opening post, you seem to be suggesting that science allows the supernatural under assumptions of a long time. This is not true: even things that happen over billions of years happen by natural processes. As for "easier": What difference does "easy" make? Calculus isn't easy, but, if you use it right (i.e., the hard way), you come to the right answer.As for "safer": It's only safe if you're right that God exists: if you're wrong, not only will you have wasted your life following nothing, but you'll have effectively prevented science from ever learning the truth.Edited by Bluejay, : GrammarEdited by Bluejay, : Added "based on the fact that there are only two options."

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