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Author Topic:   Question on evolutionary Rates
ICANT
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Posts: 6769
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Joined: 03-12-2007
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Message 1 of 47 (393640)
04-06-2007 3:30 AM


QUESTION:
If age of Earth = 4.6 billion years,
Single cell life = 3.8 billion years ago,
Multicellular life = 1.5 billion years ago,
Using 200,000 years per speciation that would = 11,500 speciations to get from single cell to multicell life forms.
Frank Stephenson writes:
Through dating analysis, he and his colleague have shown that the forams could produce a whole new species in as little as 200,000 years -- speedy by Darwinian standards.
...www.gly.fsu.edu....
That leaves 7500 speciations to get to modern man, from Eukaryotic Cells.
How is it possible for Modern man to evolve from Eukaryotic Cells in only 7500 speciations when it took 11,500 to go from single cell to Eukaryotic Cells?
Edited by AdminNosy, : Taking the liberty of changing the thread title.

Replies to this message:
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 Message 6 by crashfrog, posted 04-06-2007 10:49 AM ICANT has replied
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ICANT
Member
Posts: 6769
From: SSC
Joined: 03-12-2007
Member Rating: 1.5


Message 12 of 47 (393741)
04-06-2007 5:01 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by Chiroptera
04-06-2007 10:28 AM


Re-200,000 years
Where do you get the "200,000 years per speciation" from?
...www.gly.fsu.edu....
I was using the fastest time the foraminiferan could produce a new species which was fast compared with Darwinian standards.
There was one species that hadn't changed in 500,000 years.
Should have taken 10 days to make the journey.

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ICANT
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Posts: 6769
From: SSC
Joined: 03-12-2007
Member Rating: 1.5


Message 13 of 47 (393742)
04-06-2007 5:03 PM
Reply to: Message 9 by AdminNosy
04-06-2007 1:18 PM


Re: Thread Title Change
No problem just as long as I can learn.

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ICANT
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Posts: 6769
From: SSC
Joined: 03-12-2007
Member Rating: 1.5


Message 14 of 47 (393764)
04-06-2007 9:13 PM
Reply to: Message 4 by RAZD
04-06-2007 7:54 AM


Re: building blocks
so there could be undocumented speciations events where forams became no-longer-forams (perhaps they ditched their shells eh?).
You mean to tell me that these young scientist did not look for forams that could have been used as gap fillers. Their research was at a real vocal point with YEC's, and other creationist. If they could have provided a detailed trail with the formas forking off and becoming some other family of creature they would have been heros.

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ICANT
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Posts: 6769
From: SSC
Joined: 03-12-2007
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Message 15 of 47 (393765)
04-06-2007 9:17 PM
Reply to: Message 6 by crashfrog
04-06-2007 10:49 AM


Re-Every 200,000 years
Hi crash,
It's not one new species every 200,000 years; it's every species produces a new species every 200,000 years.
I know if you started with just one specie in 200,000 years you would have 2. In another 200,000 you would have 4 then 8 then 16 etc.
What I am saying at the 200,000 year rate you could only have 7500 levels. Think of it as a set of door steps where you would have steps running off in all directions but you would only have 7500 levels of steps.
I don't know but I think the rate would be slower as the species got more complicated.
Then you had all the extinction events.
Then when they started to mate you have the added problem of mating.
Now you have a major problem you can't have all males or all females you have to have one of each. That problem had to be solved along the way somewhere.
But if you say OK forget all those problems we had a new species every 200,000 years you would have the 7500 levels.

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ICANT
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Posts: 6769
From: SSC
Joined: 03-12-2007
Member Rating: 1.5


Message 21 of 47 (393852)
04-07-2007 9:33 PM
Reply to: Message 18 by crashfrog
04-07-2007 12:20 AM


Re: Re-Every 200,000 years
It's all but impossible to imagine how many species that is.
Number reaches Infinity.

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ICANT
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Posts: 6769
From: SSC
Joined: 03-12-2007
Member Rating: 1.5


Message 23 of 47 (393858)
04-07-2007 11:22 PM
Reply to: Message 22 by Dr Adequate
04-07-2007 9:38 PM


Re: Re-Every 200,000 years
Here's a tip: try relating your statements to reality.
Do the math yourself start with 2 double for 7500 times.
A while ago you didn't believe that speciation didn't happen at all.
????

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ICANT
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Posts: 6769
From: SSC
Joined: 03-12-2007
Member Rating: 1.5


Message 27 of 47 (393990)
04-08-2007 10:57 PM
Reply to: Message 26 by RAZD
04-08-2007 7:33 PM


Re-Numbers
Hi RAZD in your earlier post you gave a chart on the horse.
It shows 15 different species within 8 levels. The time frame for this was 55 million years. Now this was after science says we have a horse. The average speciation rate per level would be 1 every 550,000 years. Almost 3 times as long as the Foraminifers.
Merychippus 17 - 11 million years ago
Pliohippus 12-6 million years ago.
Update: Over the years, refinements in our understanding of the Pliocene have resulted in the shrinking of that epoch. It is now believed to have covered a period ranging from about 5.3 to 1.75 million years ago.
Dinohippus appears to be the closest relative to Equus. It seems to be an intermediate between Pliohippus and Equus. In fact, the genus was established from species that were initially included in Pliohippus (e.g. P. leidyanus).
I have a problem understanding how Dinohippus can be an intermediate between Pliohippus and Equus when Pliohippus didn't exist until 5.3 million years ago. If he is then we have an unaccounted for time period of 5.7 million years.
would show a faster than normal rate of fixing selected mutations.
It does not appear that the horse went very fast.
The question remains with only 7500 levels how did modern man evolve from the Eukaryotic Cells.
If he did, how did he do it without leaving a lot of fossils?

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ICANT
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Posts: 6769
From: SSC
Joined: 03-12-2007
Member Rating: 1.5


Message 36 of 47 (394173)
04-09-2007 11:40 PM
Reply to: Message 31 by Chiroptera
04-09-2007 10:41 AM


Re: Re-Numbers
In fact, we do see these transitionals.
your source says
quote:
Assuming all this-- quite a lot to swallow
That is too much for me to swallow.

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ICANT
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Posts: 6769
From: SSC
Joined: 03-12-2007
Member Rating: 1.5


Message 40 of 47 (394891)
04-13-2007 9:44 PM
Reply to: Message 31 by Chiroptera
04-09-2007 10:41 AM


Re: Re-Numbers
Hi, Chiroptera
Sorry I have been too busy to post.
I fail to see a problem with these theoretical numbers or one's understanding of what these theoretical numbers mean when we have actual data that indicates that the transition has taken place.
I read your posted site: these transitionals.
I found a lot of possibility, feasible and probability statements.
Now for quote mining.
Note that fossils separated by more than about a hundred thousand years cannot show anything about how a species arose.
Paleocene the placental fossils include a very primitive primate-like animal (Purgatorius - known only from a tooth,
Primates
GAP: "The modern assemblage can be traced with little question to the base of the Eocene" says Carroll (1988). But before that, the origins of the very earliest primates are fuzzy. There is a group of Paleocene primitive primate-like animals called "plesiadapids" that may be ancestral to primates, or may be "cousins" to primates. (see Beard, in Szalay et al., 1993.)
In my opinion, we see a pretty good transition from basically an upright chimp to humans in only 10 species (10 levels) taking 2.6 million years (260,000 years per level).
Herein lies the problem. If Man evolved from the chimp in only 10 levels there would have to be many freaky looking fossils to be found, which does not exist.
We have some fossils skulls, and bones of which 60% are teeth.
We also have reconstructed beings of these skulls and bones by artist.
A transitional tyrannosaurid between Tyrannosaurus and Daspletosaurus.
All of these transitional animals lived during the same brief 500,000 years. Before this site was studied, these dinosaur groups were known from the much larger Judith River Formation, where the fossils showed 5 million years of evolutionary stasis, following by the apparently abrupt appearance of the new forms. It turns out that the sea level rose during that 500,000 years, temporarily burying the Judith River Formation under water, and forcing the dinosaur populations into smaller areas such as the site in Montana. While the populations were isolated in this smaller area, they underwent rapid evolution. When sea level fell again, the new forms spread out to the re-exposed Judith River landscape, thus appearing "suddenly" in the Judith River fossils, with the transitional fossils only existing in the Montana site. This is an excellent example of punctuated equilibrium (yes, 500,000 years is very brief and counts as a "punctuation"), and is a good example of why transitional fossils may only exist in a small area, with the new species appearing "suddenly" in other areas. (Horner et al., 1992) Also note the discovery of Ianthosaurus, a genus that links the two synapsid families Ophiacodontidae and Edaphosauridae. (see Carroll, 1988, p. 367)
If Carroll is right and 500,000 years is punctuation, what would your 260,000 years be.
RAZD's horse took 66 million years to develop.
The forams took 66 million years to create 330 species of forams.
One species of forams remained the same for 500,000 years.
I am supposed to believe man did it from chimps in 2.6 million years.
Like I said that is too much to swallow.

Just because I believe it that does not make it true.

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ICANT
Member
Posts: 6769
From: SSC
Joined: 03-12-2007
Member Rating: 1.5


Message 45 of 47 (395075)
04-14-2007 8:23 PM


Re-Question
My original Question:
quote:
How is it possible for Modern man to evolve from Eukaryotic Cells in only 7500 speciations when it took 11,500 to go from single cell to Eukaryotic Cells?
To get the 7500 I was using the speed of the forams in speciating.
But most of the sites I have been pointed to talk of 500,000 years or greater to spectate. That would cut the levels in less than half.
fallacycop writes:
Give us one well thought out, evidence based, real reason to even raise a brow, for crying out loud, would you?
I am not trying to prove anything I am asking for information and the best I have got so far is:
Chiroptera writes:
I have shown a picture of a sequence of skulls clearly showing a transition from a bipedal chimplike ape to modern human in only "10 levels" over 2.6 million years. You may not believe that this is actually what happened, but the plentitude of fossil remains spanning the last 2.6 million years clearly show that this is a possibility, whatever your complaint about "levels".
Yes this is a possibility. Anything is possible.
But because you have a picture of 14 different skulls of 13 different creatures and modern man does not prove that modern man came from any of the 13.
Chiroptera writes:
Anyway, you have yet to explain why your "7500 levels" presents any sort of problem. There is no problem as far as I can see.
ts writes:
The problem is only in the mind.
Zucadragon writes:
But that original statement is wrong in a very important way. And I'll provide a little example to explain it.
The Drosophilia fly is a bug of which we know all genetic information, we also know that (and this is well known for anyone dealing with the fly, ask around biologists and they'll explain it to you) the fly has many genes that are closely related to human genes, around 78% I hear and read in a lot of places. Yet if you look at it, it still looks like a simple bug.
And that's where the point lies, you can think about the first multicellular organism's and say "those would be so simple". But those first multicellular organism's would already have many of the genes that the humans would have in the future as well, minus and plus extra changes.. Just like the fly now, would those first organism's have many of the basic genes..
Which would take it less time in "speciation events" to get to the stage of what we call a human now.
This was an honest effort to explain how it could happen.
RAZD did a pretty good job in Message 4
BTW I have no problem with all creatures having the same elements that man does as they all were made from the earth.
But if this is the best I can get, along with the many articles I have been pointed too and read with all their possibilities, probabilities and feasiablities. I like my theory better.

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