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Author Topic:   Evolution and Probability
Dinker
Inactive Member


Message 80 of 104 (63872)
11-01-2003 9:53 PM


Forgive me but....
Hi,
I'm a Mathematical Physicist not a biologist so please forgive me for my ignorance but I have been reading through your arguments and I was wondering about a few things.
The argument seems at present over the probabilities given that evolution is underway which statistically/mathematically/logically/honestly you can not possibly accurately predict as each step influences the next in an unknown fashion.
I want to ask a question based on the principles of mathematical induction. Mathematical induction which I'm sure you'll probably be aware has two parts to it; initialisation and inductive hypothesis. Or for a simple simile it is like asking two questions; If a domino falls over, will it knock over the next? (Inductive Hypothesis) and Can the first domino be knocked over? (Initialisation). You have been arguing over the 'inductive hypothesis' in a somewhat futile fashion (seemingly... again I apologise for my ignorance) but I am wondering about the probabilities of the 'initialisation'. What is literally the first step (or steps) and what are the odds of them coming together to get the ball rolling?
If this has been covered I apologise(again) but from my stand point it is the only thing you can show with any true evidence to argue over - as you can go make up your soup in the lab and test it. This of course begs another question - were the ingredients available?
As for other points. Comments stating the odds of God existing are very low seem to be very empty statements with literally no basis but prejudice. And comments which say for creationists the existence of God is 12.6 or something, although sweeping are not far from a truthful point. I've spoken to many people over this, particularly christians. Active christians do not believe in God cause of some blind faith which's truth will be revealed to them on death. They believe in God because they have an active relationship with God (Jesus) in their daily life. They 'know' Jesus. If they know God then it logically follows that God exists in order for them to interact with him/her/it. Thus the probability for them that God exists is a logical 1.
I thought I'd make that point even though I'm sure the comments were mostly in jest.
But Anyway... Back to my major question, if you would do me the honour... Can you knock over that first domino?

Replies to this message:
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Dinker
Inactive Member


Message 84 of 104 (64035)
11-02-2003 8:26 PM


I think you maybe assuming more than you know...
Can I just say thankyou for replying to my original text. I am always intrigued by anothers incite... and who doesn't enjoy being patronised over the philosophy of science. I do however have some doubts/replies(...still!).
You say I'm looking at it the wrong way round.
quote:
We're sitting here, looking at a pile of fallen dominoes
At this point I must firstly disagree with you.
Before I was saying that arguing over whether the Evolution model was viable given it was underway is meaningless.
quote:
The argument seems at present over the probabilities given that evolution is underway which statistically/mathematically/logically/honestly you can not possibly accurately predict as each step influences the next in an unknown fashion.
Neither side can show that it is able to produce the needed results (our present natural state) or that it can't. It is not possible to show that it is viable or that it isn't! (By viable I mean likely given the time contraints)
ie. Anyone who says that the domino knocks over the next is assuming that the evolution model given that is underway is true (not just viable - actually happened). This is (At least partly) what this entire debate/website is about! You can't just decide that it is true!
I am intrigued by you latter comments though crashfrog. You say that WE have never seen "the Hand of God" operate. Firstly you should probably change that too a safe 'I' or possibly 'a group of us' (be it large or not) so not to make any assumptions which are very volatile (could mean everything) in this debate. Secondly if a creator God did exist all systems/mechanisms would be of him/her/it so one could probably argue EVERYTHING you see is the "Hand of God". Lastly I put forward a more subtle point. Admittedly it is a philosophical one but bare with me I beg of you. Suppose a creator God did exist. He would therefore be able to exist in a state outside of space-time (If he/she/it wasn't he/she/it would be dependant upon space-time and would therefore not be able to create it - nothing would prequisite such an entity). We are well and truly dependant on space-time. Our very conception of everything is based upon it. We struggle to imagine thinking/doing with very little time, let alone no time at all! Our mind cannot conceive it. The nature of the creator God is thus inconceivable to us. Added to this is the fact we barely understand our own nature or that of the universe within which we inhabit. To believe we do is simple arrogance and a trap humanity has fallen into way to many times. "The Hand of God" is the mechanism of interaction of the nature of God to the nature of us and our universe. We have already established we don't understand one nature and barely the other. Yet you are trying to define the relationship between the two. And then make the claim you have never seen it - How would you know?!
I've written a lot there. So I'm not sure if it's all logical and correctly communicated. For that I apologise. If I've gone nuts at some point could you show me where I've gone wrong? I would be very grateful to anyone who aided me in my quest for truth.

Replies to this message:
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Dinker
Inactive Member


Message 87 of 104 (64207)
11-03-2003 5:13 PM


You seem to leap to conclusions without watching your step...
I admire your swiftness to answer me crashfrog but I'm seeing a few holes in your arguments...
Firstly you said:
quote:
If God has ever acted, then he only acts in ways indistinguishable from natural law and random chance, and in that situation, is it even possible to say that he's acted at all? Nope
Ok kind of a big assumption there. Has it occured to you that God's actions are not confined to "natural law and random chance". Obviously YOU have not seen evidence of this but that does not mean it is untrue, it just means you are ignorant of it.
And as for your fantastic sweeping:
quote:
we can be reasonably sure that a moral god who can act in this universe does not, in fact, exist
Would you like to back that up with any basis or just hope its profound impact value will suffice?
You say:
quote:
But most importantly, god must be understandable to be moral. If god is incomprehensible, we would be unable to share his morals, and that would make the Bible et. al. useless.
I'm gonna try and make a point here but it is hard to find a good simile so please take it for the reason it was intended (To portray a point). The model I'm gonna use is that of the relationship of humans and dogs.
We quite well understand dogs and their nature but dogs have a very small grasp of the complexities of us. One could go so far to say that we are ineffable to dogs. (If you are a particular believer in the hidden genius, power and knowledge of dogs then I beg of you please stick with my model for now) A dog cannot grasp our nature or moral code by it's own means. However we manage to impart on dogs not to bark loud, to roll over, to pee outside, to be 'good' and not to be 'bad'. How is it that an entity to which we are ineffable has grasped a basic moral structure from us and is obeying them? It does not really understand us at all but it knows what it should do and what it shouldn't in accordance with our morals (which it also probably doesn't understand). The key here is REVELATION. We reveal certain parts of our morals to the dog in a language/medium which it will understand. It is not the dog sitting round and then logically coming to conclusions of human morals - that is impossible(improbable) given that we are ineffable to it (which is your point - thus I show agreement).
I repeat this model isn't perfect but it shows what I'm trying to say. You are assuming understanding God is required to get his/her/its morals. It is not. All you can know of God is what he reveals to you on a level that you understand. This is what the Bible is. It is REVELATION from God. It is imparting his morals/nature upon you in a language that you can understand/comprehend. Thus the Bible is exactly the opposite of what you claim.
Lastly you say:
quote:
In any case god, apparently, isn't required to construct accurate models of phenomenon in the universe. I feel comfortable saying that the Hand of God does not operate because there's no need for it to for things to proceed according to natural laws.
I think you should know that our models are still flawed (and we know they are) thus not accurate. I agree with you in part that natural laws seemingly act without God. But why are the laws as they are? (- this is deep philosophy) I'm sure you'll answer will be along the lines of "They have to be - else it wouldn't work" but like the mathematical laws were defined by us( - so they worked), could it not be said the natural laws were defined by God on creation? (If your answer was not that, sorry for assuming - I try not to assume anything without grounding). And besides (Again..) this entire debate/website is about whether the natural laws were sufficient to get us to where we are today or whether they needed some divine/un-natural help. You can't just assume that they were!
This has been another long reply. Sorry about that. And I apologise for any communication errors. I await your next incite crashfrog.

Replies to this message:
 Message 88 by crashfrog, posted 11-03-2003 8:27 PM Dinker has not replied
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Dinker
Inactive Member


Message 94 of 104 (65133)
11-08-2003 12:30 PM


Hmmm... I'd have to disagree...
Just before I dive in. I am thankful for you bothering to reply to me Crashfrog. I can appreciate from your perspective this must be at the very least frustrating. So in a way I'm sorry for what I'm gonna do - put forward some more of my thoughts based on your responses...
quote:
No, not really. It's born out by study after study.
This a very compelling point. But then as you pointed out before, God is not an entity that can be modelled. God is not a natural law. All you can know of God is what he reveals to you. I appreciate the implication of this - that to someone who believes that scientifically non-verifiable ideas/entities are a waste of time, God is irrelevant, existing or not. Such thinking could be summed up by the statement, "A statement/idea is meaningless unless it is imperically or analytically verifiable". Does this sum up your life philosophy? If so then I must tell you then that your life philosophy declares itself to be meaningless. If the statement is true then it is meaningless - unable to be true or false. This is not to say that I think you should believe anything. More to suggest there is more than science can reach.
But I do agree with some of what you said in those statements:
quote:
Apparently there's no way to get God to do anything
Obviously - if there was you'd supersede God which would be the greatest disproof of God ever. The Christian stance is "God's will be done".
As for knowing his will on a subject. As before you can only know of God what he reveals to you. This is the use of the Bible. The Bible is not a technical manual which you seem to analyse it as. (i.e. The creation aspect is about 1 page long and pretty vague - the Bible isn't really about how it's about why). The old testiment is seems only really to set a scene/basis and show the prophecy of Jesus. The new testiment is more the applicable edification (I realise this is a christian view point of this). Given the learning available in the new testiment, reading original texts (with a good dictionary) and reading them in the context of the time and situation. You can come to very clear conclusions on issues most the time. If God has said it once why should he say it again?
For instance you bring up the case of "gay marriage". I'm gonna whip up a quick biblical/historical/modernly observable argument - probably not that theologically great but it does make you think.. well me think...
In general the gay christian community have got round all the biblical texts by just disowning it. The bible is clear on what is right here but I'm more interested in this more subtle point. It is backed up by historical evidence from all over the place and the state of affairs today. In Corinth the situation at the time 'Paul' wrote them the letter, Corinthians, sexuality was the major theme of the day (As in most Eras). You think we had a sexual liberation in the 60s? They were having orgies left, right and centre. Gay was social norm. As was paedophilia. You would be expected to have a few wives/concubines, a gay lover and fun down the local brothel. Yet they gave it up to become christians? Why? Christianity was not much of a physical force at this point - if you believe they were forced into it, the Romans were chopping up christians with no remorse and (as you pointed out) not seeing any Godly smiting for it. And the people had heard threats of Gods before - there was an abundance of choice as far as Spiritualism and God worship goes. What did they find in christianity that made it spread so fast? Remember this was a pleasure seeking society. Did everyone just go insane? or is there something in christianity that managed to intice everyone from all the other very REAL 'happiness sources' of the day? By embracing homosexuality or any sexuality when forced to choose between it and a relationship with God shows a rejection of God. Cutting you off from whatever made everyone in Corinth (and the rest of Greece and the Roman empire) give it all up.
I do not defend the entire present "organised" church of today. In many ways it has lost the point in politics and perversion of the faith. The christianity that I'm interested in is that which turned the great Roman empire from christian killers/haters to christians themselves. That is a case study for you Crashfrog. I'm sure a mind great as yours could give me a good explanation for why such a massive turn around happened. As a side note - just to put it in perspective, Paul puts homosexuality on a plane with being greedy. Christians hate sins not sinners - we believe we are all sinners. That was just in case you believe I'm a pig-headed homophobe... You may still do... But my friends who are gay would probably disagree... at least a little...
Anyway! Other stuff!
Your "Trivial" disproof of God. I agree with your definition of God in general terms:
quote:
The God you're talking about is both moral and powerful
Can I add "Creator God" to that and "above all". As in that he/she/it was just there always. So not to worry about causality arguments, just as I suspect you believe the universe has always existed, not sure how well that fits with the second law of Thermodynamics... Actually given that I don't know what you believe... Sorry about that presumption..
You said that God does not intervene when moral injustice is about to occur and therefore is either immoral or powerless. You used the example of not preventing a murder being immoral. I'm gonna suggest a slightly more complex model and ask what you would do?
Suppose there is man A and he is about to kill man B who in turn is about to kill 100 psycho-paedophiles. You are God. Do you intervene? Do you want to? Will you just stop A? This a fairly simple moral dilemma in comparison to what God must see given that he would have the foresight of all the consequences of every immoral act he intervened in. You would probably come to the conclusion that the only way to ensure morality is to make sure that nobody ever did anything wrong - only what you wanted. The very politician like stance of "You can do what ever you want as long as it is exactly what I say". The consequence of intervening always is complete loss of free will and morals (as the moral choice is all there is thus it is just reality). We would be a race of robots just doing exactly what we were programmed to. What is the point of this? Often we say God is Love. Love is FREELY given. I can program a computer to repeat the words "I love you" to me but it is meaningless. A requirement of Love is freedom. A requirement of freedom is not to control everything somebody does (it isn't freedom otherwise).
If God ever does intervene/act he/she/it will do so considering all the consequences of such actions. You over simplified. Those impossible moral dilemmas you probably never have to deal with. God does. Whatever such an entity choses to do is far more informed than your tiny example - there is a bigger picture.
And besides you seem to be a little confused as to what morals are. Where do we get morals? Most atheistic philosophers I've spoken to don't believe in morals (Objective morals) because they've only observed/believe in subjective morals - products of society and TV etc. You seem (Forgive me for any ignorance) to reference objective morals. ie. Killing is wrong - it is not just a matter of opinion. Such objectivity demands a universal moral law to define whether something is right or wrong. A law which no entity under God has any right to define. If God is a creator then he is the only one who can claim objectivity because he defined the objects. ie. If God says it's right it's right and if he says it's wrong it's wrong. For example if you make up a board-game you can make up the rules - what you can and can't do. If you create a universe you can make up all the natural laws and moral laws. Because you are defining all the systems and objects. You seem to speak as if both you and God are aspiring to the same moral code which supersedes both of you. That puts a system/law above God which contradicts the definition of such an entity.
I therefore have to disagree with your conclusion. I would like to know your definition of morals though. You said dogs aren't moral beings (I'm inclined to agree), so what makes us moral beings? And as you believe we are the product of the same natural system when did we evolve morals?
My dog analogy is quite flawed. It was only suppose to show the point that God could impart moral law upon us via his Revelation to us, regardless of us understanding him. Nothing more. I quite happily disown the analogy (Sorry about it!). I think maybe a better analogy (well obviously better) would be that of human parents and children. Children have few morals when they are young. They don't understand why they're parents think things are right or wrong. So parents explain morals to their children in simple language. Children of course still do not understand all the morals imparted upon them but they do follow them - occasionally disobeying (depending on the child). But once some of the reasons for some of the morals make sense children tend to trust that the others are also (until they become teenagers - Please take the analogy for what it means). They trust their parents judgement - that they know more. Voila. Morality transferred to children without understanding the inner working of their parents or even the reason for some morals. This is at least a very similar state to that of between us and God. We can appreciate some Godly morals such as "Thou shall not murder" but maybe not others. We may have to trust that an entity of infinite hindsight is in a better position to see morality then us and trust it. I suspect you will not accept this for a reason at present beyond me (Ignoring disbelief in God). I really need to know what you think morals are and where they come from before commenting. I think I may have portayed what I believe morals are quite well - but that will become clear by your response!
That's all I really disagree with. All I would say in reference to your closing comments:
quote:
To the contrary, I can. Because the alternative means proposing the existence of entities whose existence can't be confirmed or denied in any way. What's the point of that? What's the difference between my model that explains everything naturally, and yours that explains the same things, but adds untestable chocolate sprinkles? The difference is, I don't waste my time with the stuff that I can't know exists, and wouldn't matter if it did. Ockham's Razor, basically.
They are quite admirable. Such a strive for the truth and core of what's going on - I really respect that. The only point I would make is "What is really important in this life? Have you passed it off because it could not be modelled by your techniques?". Not to discourage you in your scientific exploration. The wonders of this universe seem somewhat endless - at least from my perspective. More just to imply maybe there's more to chocolate sprinkles then you ever imagined and that maybe there are other means of exploring them other than science.
Sorry that was so long. It's hard to say everything you want and as it was so long I'm sure there are language errors all over the place! Please be kind in that respect! Thankyou for your time thus far Crashfrog. I look forward to you reply.
[This message has been edited by Dinker, 11-08-2003]

Replies to this message:
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 Message 99 by Rrhain, posted 11-11-2003 6:32 AM Dinker has not replied

  
Dinker
Inactive Member


Message 100 of 104 (66040)
11-12-2003 12:56 PM


May I start with a sorry...
[Sorry this is way off the topic subject but I thought this is important]
Hey Rrhain,
Firstly let me say sorry. I do not wish to alienate the gay commmunity from christianity (and I couldn't if I wanted to - Thank God!). I am delighted that you have the joy of christ in your life. The main reason I brought up the subject was due to comments from crashfrog. But let me try and justify my view at least a little. So you don't do to me what you possibly believed I was doing to you.
I said:
quote:
In general the gay christian community have got round all the biblical texts by just disowning it.
- this was an inappropriate comment, entirely based on my own personal experience. I've not met a gay christian who has given me reasoning that would indicate that homosexual (As I understand it... which apparently is very little) activity is not a sin or that it is glorifying to God.
You say:
quote:
It can't possibly be because they understand the Bible better than you. No, it has to be because they are deliberately ignoring it.
I have never claimed to be a great theologian. So I would be delighted if you would in christian brotherly style show me the errors of my ways (rebuke me - as is every christians duty in love). I will not insult your intelligence by telling you which verses I would like explained - I'm sure you've covered the material many times. Could you show me your reasoning? Could you tell me what homosexuality is as you understand it?
I would like to pick up on one or two things though. Cause I think (maybe totally foolishly) that I may have a point. You say you "They are gay. God made them that way" - thus they are exactly as God intended and thus not sinning. So basically you believe I was saying that you shouldn't be who you are - denile of self - how horrible! I beg of you not to believe such a thing of me. That was never what I intended and here's why...
I'm going to be a little bold here and say you are not what you do. We are both from societies in which what you do defines who you are. When we are born we have genetic dispositions to all kinds of things. The best you can be born with is an inclination to do something (Strong though it maybe). People are born with inclinations to do all sorts of things that are wrong (and right). Pyschopaths are born with a disposition to kill - should we allow them to kill people because they were made that way by God? Paedophiles are born with a sexual disposition towards being attracted to children - do we condone sexual relationships between adults and children cause God made them that way (Surely we are stopping them being who they are if we don't)? Or at least not tell them off when they exercise their right to be themself as God made them? What about those who have inclinations towards beastiality? Surely we should allow them to have sex with appropriately sized animals. They're likely to not even be hurting the animal (probably pleasuring the animal!). Surely we have no reason to stop them using their God given sexuality...
I can't help feel your "God made me this way" argument leaves something to be desired. I would quite literally be delighted if you could prove the error in my argument. When I've asked people about it before they just got angry with me or just said it was different without telling me how. I do realise that there is a consent issue involved (on the first 2 examples at least) which makes it differ. But I'm speaking of the motivation here. Does being born with an inclination to do something make acting on it right and God given?
In my view, sexuality does not define who you are! It is important, yes. But it isn't who you are! What would you think of me if I walked round saying "Hi, my names Dinker and I'm a heterosexual". You'd probably think I was a bit weird and I doubt you'd think that fact had any bearing on who I was. Yet you seem to believe it is a major defining factor. I could be wrong on this. Please show me I am - whenever I discuss issues this close to anothers heart I feel very much like I'm playing with matches.
When I said Paul puts homosexuality (and I mean this referring to sexual acts/lusting in homosexuality) on a plain with greed I'm referring to:
"Do you not know that the wicked will not inherit the kingdom of God? Do not be deceived: Neither the sexually immoral nor idolaters nor adulterers nor male prostitutes nor homosexual offenders nor thieves nor the greedy nor drunkards nor slanderers nor swindlers will inherit the kingdom of God." Corinthians 6:9-10.
He goes onto say in verse 11:
"And that is what some of you were. But you were washed, you were sanctified, you were justified in the name of the Lord Jesus Christ and by the Spirit of our God."
(NIV - maybe a source of error!)
He said you were once like that - you gave it up when you got to know Jesus - you don't need it any more.
Having a homosexual inclination is not wrong - you cannot help it. Acting upon such an inclination (Lusting (just wrong in general) after the same sex, Sexual acts with same sex) (And then saying it is wonderous and beautiful) is wrong from what is in the bible - as I understand it.
At what point are you homosexual? I apparently have an inclination towards playing the guitar. At what point from starting playing was I a guitarist? Or was I one before I started playing?
This is why I say homosexuality is a sin - You have to do homosexual acts to be homosexual (You have to play guitar to be a guitarist). But in some ways I would rather it wouldn't be. Just so I didn't have to do such things as this. Believe it or not I don't enjoy this. I don't enjoy being screamed at for holding such a view which I believe to be right. Can you show me that I am wrong so that I need not pointlessly rebuke another christian over this issue?
Lastly:
quote:
Right. "You know, you're going to hell." Doesn't seem to be a very good basis for a friendship.
That is not the basis of our relationship. Just as the fact that I believe all my non-christians friends are going to hell is not basis for my relationship with them. I'm am deeply saddened that they do not know the joy I have in Christ and that ultimately them will be seperated from the love of God and God himself. I found your comment was quite hurtful or though maybe not unprovoked...
I hope I have successfully given across at least a partly justified view here that you may address it justly. I am sorry we had to meet on these circumstances.
I'll be praying for both of us over this!
God Bless.
I await your reply.

Replies to this message:
 Message 101 by Rei, posted 11-12-2003 1:24 PM Dinker has replied
 Message 104 by Rrhain, posted 11-13-2003 6:20 AM Dinker has not replied

  
Dinker
Inactive Member


Message 102 of 104 (66058)
11-12-2003 2:01 PM
Reply to: Message 101 by Rei
11-12-2003 1:24 PM


Cheers Rei!
Yeh soz about the tangent I seemed to have incited. And thanx for ya help!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 101 by Rei, posted 11-12-2003 1:24 PM Rei has not replied

  
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