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Author Topic:   where was the transition within fossil record?? [Stalled: randman]
halucigenia
Inactive Member


Message 124 of 304 (253448)
10-20-2005 3:21 PM


Understanding the other's position
I don't intend to play devil's advocate here, however I have been trying to follow this debate and think that I have a handle on a particular misunderstanding here. I think that what randman is trying to explain is that where it is considered that a species is transitional in form then this transitional form should increase in population size sufficiently to leave abundant fossils. However others are saying that the transitional forms stay in small population size. What has failed to be communicated, or what randman has failed to understand, is that these small populations of transitional forms continue to evolve and do increase in population size if successfull, but in evolving are no longer that specific transitional form that randman is looking for.
In bringing up Punctuated Equilibrium it is clear that randman believes that all new species appear in the fossil record "fully formed" therefore none of these "fully formed" species can be considered transitional. I do not know if it helps to consider that even what the rest of you see as transitional species will appear to be "fully formed" from this perspective. If I am correct in my assumptions of randman's way of thinking (it is difficult to get inside a creationist's head), then, to this way of thinking, there are just no such things as transitional fossils.

halucigenia
Inactive Member


Message 127 of 304 (253459)
10-20-2005 3:46 PM
Reply to: Message 121 by randman
10-20-2005 2:45 PM


Re: Population genetics
randman writes:
But the evo claim is more like species 1 is seen, and then 2-999 is so small it leaves no fossils, and then species 1000 is seen
So you do actualy understand Punctuated Equilibrium then? Species 2-999 (small populations, yes, in time) appearing in rapid succession. Rapid (geologically speaking) periods of evolution with long periods of stasis in between. No wonder we don't see the transitional species 2-999 in the fossil record.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 121 by randman, posted 10-20-2005 2:45 PM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
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 Message 132 by randman, posted 10-20-2005 4:05 PM halucigenia has replied

halucigenia
Inactive Member


Message 150 of 304 (253618)
10-21-2005 7:32 AM
Reply to: Message 132 by randman
10-20-2005 4:05 PM


Re: Population genetics
OK randman I will help your argument along a bit - first you stated that
the evo claim is more like species 1 is seen, and then 2-999 is so small it leaves no fossils, and then species 1000 is seen.
Then you stated that
if there is only small change between species 1 and species 1000 in the evo transition, then my numbers are off.
It should be species 1, followed by species 100K or maybe 1 million or something like that seen with all the species in between not seen at all.
(incorrectly I might add as DrJones said
And species 2 may only differ from species 1 in a feature that doesn't fossilize.
, not between species 1 and species 1000 as you stated)
But let's run with the figures anyway.
Let's assume that you are talking about a gap in time between species A and species E in Percy's graph. This gap in time is finite because, from the fossil record we have species A appearing no later than a particular time and species E appearing no sooner than a particular time. Then as the graph shows we have species B to D in this gap. Now the hypothetical species B, D, and E have a limited range in time, as we do not see them in the fossil record along with species A and E. What you also state in a later post is that
I don't think it's reasonable to think the species 2-999 would not develop into larger species.
However what we are talking about is the species in the gap being in a direct lineage from A to E therefore none of these species exists, for very long geologically speaking, alongside each other, each species supplants, or out competes it's ancestor (if this did not happen, then in the present day we would see rather a large number of virtually indistinguishable species). You do seem to be confirming that you understand this by stating
that it is likely one of the species to be more successful and spread, and without that process, it is more likely that the line of evolution would just die out.
Rightly so, each of these stages is more successful than it's immediate ancestor, so the line does not die out, it's just that this new species that starts to spread also gets supplanted by its more successful descendant.
One point is that each species by necessity must start out as a small population size, as you say yourself
I think it's reasonable that a couple, or very few "steps" or speciation events can occur within very small populations
just keep those few speciation events coming in those small populations and one of those species being more successful and there you have it.
Right - so you say that there are now 999 species filling this finite gap in time, not just 3, then, logically each of these species will exist for a shorter period of time, not being able to grow large in population size before being out competed by it's descendent. Then you say that, no there should be more like 100k, or maybe 1 million, (I'm not quite sure how to fit this many species into that finite timescale, maybe you mean 1million generations, no that does not work either unless these whale ancestors have very short lifespans, but let's run with it). Since you seem to want to predict fossilisation rates, does this make each individual stage more, or less likely to fossilise?
You go on to say
The idea that rapid speciation one species after another for hundreds of speciation events is not supported, that I know of, by what we see in nature, at least for mammals.
Of course it's not, not over the timescales that we see in nature, I presume you mean "at the present time". My point is that if it had been that way over geological periods of time what would you expect to see in the fossil record? ( hint - since you brought it up, PE)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 132 by randman, posted 10-20-2005 4:05 PM randman has not replied

halucigenia
Inactive Member


Message 177 of 304 (253981)
10-22-2005 11:30 AM
Reply to: Message 162 by randman
10-21-2005 5:22 PM


The Guesstimate keeps going up, let's bring it down a bit
Using species and dates that I am sure have been presented to you by many others, Pakicetus 52Ma, Ambulocetus 50Ma, Rodhocetus 46- 47Ma, Dorudon 40Ma, Basilosaurus 35-45 Ma
we can see somewhere between 52 Ma and 40Ma we have the gap, approx.12Ma, that you are looking for, for how many species there should be between a land mammal and an aquatic mammal. We do have species within this time that show there were animals showing intermediate features that did exist around that time period.
One thing that I would like to know is where is the original "kind" in this sequence, or do you suppose that each of these creatures came from different original "kinds"? If you agree that all present day species come from original "kind" species then how long did it take for that original "kind" species to adapt into the present day species. To make it easy let's just say pick a "kind" ancestor from any one of the above, or give us a date for that unknown "kind" ancestor. I don't think that you are a YEC so I don't think that you will say 6000y, as that would be very problematic for your calculations. Then tell us, by your reckoning how many of your "steps" it would take for that original "kind" ancestor to "adapt" into all the whale like species we see today, presuming that you accept that all present day cetaceans are of a "kind". I am being generous in allowing you a head start of 38Ma. Don't forget, if you reduce your figures from your previous post you are going to have to concede that there could be less steps for that land mammal to aquatic mammal transition. Please also note that there may be less "steps" involved in geting from something like Pakicetus to something like Ambulocetus or Rodhocetus than there are from something like Dorudon or Basilosaurus to a modern day Blue Whale or Amazon Dolphin (thinking of 2 quite different forms of what I presume you think of as a having a "kind" ancestor).
Also, using your astronomical number of changes (whether you actually mean millions of species or millions of steps it's still not quite clear to me) is it clear to you that you are proposing numbers of changes that could replace an entire genome? we just do not require that many. How about cutting it down to the number of changes that would be required to the few genes in the genome that would actually require changing, we know all organisms share a high proportion of genes anyway. Oh yes and reduce that number by the number of changes that would be taking place at the same time while you are about it (by 80 whale species do you mean currently existing species that were changing at the same time, or 80 species steps? still not clear to me either). Also, if you are estimating the number of distinguishable species, then reduce that number by the number of changes seen in each species.
If you are still talking about the number of fossils then reduce the number of changes by the number of things that require changing that would not be able to be seen in fossils, leaving mainly those changes that affect bone structure only.
Also are you still talking about the number of fossils that we might find of them, then reduce that number by er... lots and lots more to somewhere between 0 and a few. Then we might be getting somewhere near a guesstimate.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 162 by randman, posted 10-21-2005 5:22 PM randman has not replied

halucigenia
Inactive Member


Message 184 of 304 (254033)
10-22-2005 3:28 PM
Reply to: Message 178 by randman
10-22-2005 1:10 PM


Fully formed?
..... the fact that Pakicetus has absolutely no fully-formed whale features.
Uh oh - there's that old Creo misconception again, I thought rand was confused - now what is it that Creos say that we should see in the fossil record, partially formed species, fully formed features or what?
Would that not mean that it had partially formed whale features, so therefore can be thought of as a transitional?

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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halucigenia
Inactive Member


Message 189 of 304 (254130)
10-23-2005 6:33 AM
Reply to: Message 162 by randman
10-21-2005 5:22 PM


OK, let's help by increasing the guesstimate then
OK, [Devil's advocate mode on]
according to sources on this very discussion forum there are approx. 35 mutations for each human individual.
Lets say that whale's ancestors are similar in that respect to humans,
then for each generation there are 35 mutations,
Let's say there are 10 years per whale ancestor generation,
then for 12MA (that evos propose for land mammal to aquatic mammal evolution) there are 35x12,000000/10 = 42,000000 mutations
mutations = steps so that means there have been 42,000000 steps from land mammal to aquatic mammal - where are all these transitionals.
[/da]
Anyone see the fallacy in this argument (anyone meaning you randman).
Don't you know that 87.5% of all statistics are made up?
I considered making the same calculation over the last 5 million or so years of hominid evolution, or over the last 2 million or so years of Homo sp. evolution, or even last 100,000 years or so of Homo Sapiens evolution, but then thought why bother?, we can all pull figures like these out of our arses.
Numbers of mutations obviously don't equate to "steps", numbers of steps don't equate to species, numbers of species don't equate to transitionals and numbers of transitionals don't equate to what we should or should not find in the fossil record.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 162 by randman, posted 10-21-2005 5:22 PM randman has not replied

halucigenia
Inactive Member


Message 193 of 304 (254172)
10-23-2005 10:29 AM
Reply to: Message 191 by mark24
10-23-2005 9:16 AM


Well done - clear and concise
What is the geographical range of a potential transitional population?;
What is the population size of a potential transitional population?;
What percentage of a population, if any, live in habitats that are conducive to fossilisation?;
What is the chance of any given individual fossilising in any given habitat?;
What is the range in time of a potential transitional population?;
This will potentially give you how many fossils exist within the earth of any given species/morph, if any.
However I would like to add one more (if not implied in the second one):-
What is the time duration of that population ?
as a smaller less stable populations of species that are "in the process of" evolving are less likely to get fossilised just because of their fewer numbers over time. As opposed to the large stable long lasting populations that are rather common in the fossil record.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 191 by mark24, posted 10-23-2005 9:16 AM mark24 has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 199 by mark24, posted 10-23-2005 12:05 PM halucigenia has replied

halucigenia
Inactive Member


Message 197 of 304 (254179)
10-23-2005 10:52 AM
Reply to: Message 192 by Buzsaw
10-23-2005 10:14 AM


Re: Majority Accomodates Themselves
Why doesn't micro/macro fit this ticket?
Quite simply because biologically there is no such distinction.
Logically if there was a distinction it could be shown biologically as a different mechanism or something, and biologists would be agreeing with you. It is just unnecessary for TOE.
Let's coin a few more terms, let's say if study micro-evolution I am studying subspecies differences, nano-evolution if I am studying molecular differences between close relatives, kilo-evolution if I am studying differences in genera, Mega.... Giga..... etc. You would not need a different mechanism for each to validate TOE. Get it?

This message is a reply to:
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halucigenia
Inactive Member


Message 203 of 304 (254245)
10-23-2005 4:45 PM
Reply to: Message 199 by mark24
10-23-2005 12:05 PM


oops
Don't know how I missed that, I even quoted it???????

This message is a reply to:
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halucigenia
Inactive Member


Message 211 of 304 (254262)
10-23-2005 5:26 PM
Reply to: Message 204 by randman
10-23-2005 4:51 PM


More species misconceptions
Whatever the label and whatever propaganda you guys want to spout, there is clearly no spectrum of life, but discrete groups separated one from another. That's why a cat and dog cannot mate for example.
Nope - a domestic dog and a wolf are different species, within the same genus, and they can mate. A domestic dog and a Jackal, different species within the same genus probably could not mate. A dog and a fox are very unlikely to be able to mate as they are separated by genus, but are within the same subfamily.
A dog and a cat can't mate because they are so far apart genetically speaking that they are put in different families.
There's more to this classification lark than just species you know.
I know they are just labels, but people like labeling things even when there is a bit of a blurry line between things.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 204 by randman, posted 10-23-2005 4:51 PM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 214 by randman, posted 10-23-2005 5:32 PM halucigenia has replied

halucigenia
Inactive Member


Message 224 of 304 (254286)
10-23-2005 6:36 PM
Reply to: Message 214 by randman
10-23-2005 5:32 PM


Re: More species misconceptions
You are using labels and language to blur reality
Sorry, but it's the reality that's blurry, we use labels and language to try and make sense of it.
.Creatures can only mate or reproduce within a certain group. End of story.
This is just dependant on how you define that group. I would define that such group to be somewhere between species and subfamily for some organisms, but it need not correspond exactly to either, if you want to define your own grouping based on this criteria go ahead, it's just another label, trying to define that elusive blurry reality.
Humans have no near spectrum species or groups we can mate with
maybe we do but I doubt that the experiment will be conducted.
If you define "species" as the group animals can interbreed with, you have very little overlap.
But you do have overlap, that's the problem with trying to classify something that does involve a spectrum.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 214 by randman, posted 10-23-2005 5:32 PM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
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halucigenia
Inactive Member


Message 225 of 304 (254289)
10-23-2005 6:52 PM
Reply to: Message 218 by randman
10-23-2005 5:55 PM


Re: More species misconceptions
For example, I know of no other species humans can breed with.
Do you?
If the spectrum claim was accurate, we should be able to mate with our nearest species.
Closest species, in time, that would be the last Homo sp. I bet we could.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 218 by randman, posted 10-23-2005 5:55 PM randman has replied

Replies to this message:
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