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Author | Topic: Wealth Distribution in the USA | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Straggler Member (Idle past 95 days) Posts: 10333 From: London England Joined: |
Tangle writes: The wiki on the minimum wage is quite good but you have to read all of it and not just pick the bits you think makes your case The evidence I was citing in Message 385 wasn't from Wiki. It was from the latest meta-analysis of all the relevant studies since 2000. Did you read it at all?
Center For Economic And Policy Research - Why Does the Minimum Wage Have No Discernible Effect on Employment? John Schmitt Feb 2013 Tangle writes: You'll see that the evidence is mixed and also surprising and that economists don't agree at all - no surprises there I suppose. If you read the wiki page on minimum wage it is quite apparent that there is a shift in economic thinking underway. A shift in thinking away from the neo-classical model towards the evidenced conclusions in the meta-analysis I cited.
Tangle writes: If that happens across the econom the increase in wages has increased inflation. And increased inflation errodes the value of wages, so you go back to square one. Except that this is not what the actual evidence indicates. Read the link. It is worth looking at properly and is highly relevant to the topic here.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9516 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8
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Straggler writes: The evidence I was citing in Message 385 wasn't from Wiki. It was from the latest meta-analysis of all the relevant studies since 2000. Did you read it at all? Center For Economic And Policy Research - Why Does the Minimum Wage Have No Discernible Effect on Employment? John Schmitt Feb 2013 I know it wasn't from the Wiki - the counter-intuitive evidence (that increasing minimum wage doesn't necessarily lead to a rise in unemployment) is from the various studies it discussed there. It's worth showing Schmitt's discussions on his analysis from your link in full
Discussion Across all of the empirical research that has investigated the issue, minimum-wage increases are consistently associated with statistically significant and economically meaningful increases in the wages of affected workers. At the same time, what is striking about the preceding review of possible channels of adjustment — including employment — is how often the weight of the empirical evidence is either inconclusive (statistically insignificant or positive in some cases and negative in others) or suggestive of only small economic effects. One plausible explanation for these findings is that employers (and workers) respond on multiple fronts to any increase in the minimum wage. Individual establishments will follow different paths that depend on a complex set of circumstances that economists — operating with what is, even in the best of circumstances, a limited set of data — cannot fully capture or explain. Some employers may cut hours; others, fringe benefits; still others, the wages of highly paid workers. Some employers may raise prices (particularly if their competitors are experiencing similar cost increases in response to the minimum wage). Some employers may see their profits fall (along with those of their competitors), while others may reorganize the work process in order to lower costs. Some of the strongest evidence suggests that many employers may experience declines in costly turnover. And workers may respond to the higher wage by working harder. Any of these channels might be sufficient to eliminate the need for employment cuts or reduce the size of employment cuts to a level below where they can be reliably measured.Employers and workers at the same establishment may follow more than one of these adjustment paths at the same time. Given the modest costs associated with historical increases in the minimum wage, it seems entirely plausible that small adjustments across a few of these margins could more than compensate for the higher wage floor. Some of these adjustment paths reduce the benefit of the minimum wage to affected workers (reductions in non-wage benefits or training), but most have an ambiguous effect (reductions in hours or increased work effort) or no effect (lower profits or wage compression within a firm) on the well-being of low-wage workers. And some adjustment channels arguably improve workers' well-being (lower turnover or increased consumer demand). The strongest evidence suggests that the most important channels of adjustment are: reductions in labor turnover; improvements in organizational efficiency; reductions in wages of higher earners ("wage compression"); and small price increases. It important to note that Schmitt doesn't say that there is no effect when wages rise, just that it's too simplistic to say that it causes unemployment. I think that much is blindingly obvious. Firms and employees will react in many ways, including cutting hours, cutting jobs, reducing training, reducing benefits, increasing prices, reducing other costs (including to higher paid employees) and so on. Some of those are potentially good news - as far as we're concerned - but a lot are not. I also suspect that over a very long term - 20-50 years a steadily increasing minimum wage will make large changes to a countries economy - I'd expect a large reduction in 'menial' jobs but also an increase in work that requires more intellectual effort. I was listening to a programme about Japan the other day - remember them? It prompted me to write this:
When you start a business, one of the decisions you have to make is whether to build things yourself or to buy them in. Software is one of those things that you can either make or buy — so long as you know how. Here at Voipfone we took a decision from the beginning to build all our core technologies ourselves, so it was interesting to hear an article on the radio about the Japanese electronics industry which once conquered the world, but is now almost defunct. Sharp and Panasonic are nearly bankrupt, Sony made a loss of $10bn last year and Hitachi has been forced out of consumer electronics and is attempting to make it in heavy industry. China and Korea are stealing their manufacturing and Silicon Valley is stealing their products. The Sony Walkman once created then dominated its sector but it was destroyed by the iPod. The difference between the two devices is that the Walkman is mechanical and contains no software whilst the iPod contains no clockwork and is all about being digital. But if you look at the economics of the IPod (and iPad and iPhone) you find that the manufacturer in China is keeping only about 3% of the profit whilst Apple is getting 50%+. In other words, the real value is being created and kept, in the USA from software development. Meanwhile, Korean Samsung is being extremely successful in both manufacture and development of digital devices from TVs to smartphones. Without a massive and wholesale switch from manufacture to software and hardware design, it’s hard to see how the Japanese can climb out of their hole — and it’s also a warning to China that depending on manufacturing alone, is not a great long-term plan. Meanwhile, here in the UK we need to be spending more time teaching real IT skills to our kids — companies like Voipfone need them. Voipfone Blog – The Importance of SoftwareLife, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android
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Percy Member Posts: 22505 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Stragger in Message 312 writes: If you accept this much then you accept that there should be a link between the economic benefit one brings and the rewards ones receives.... Those who provide little or no economic benefit... ... Those who provide considerable economic benefit... You're still operating under the delusion that you can somehow know this economic benefit for any specific job. You can't. You not only can't even know it approximately, you can't even know whether it is positive or negative.
I am well aware that you think any suggestion of a link demands a much more concrete and universal relationship than anyone is actually advocating. I'm telling you that you can't even know whether it is positive or negative. You have nothing upon which to base your claims. You're just assuming executives contribute little and the rank and file contribute a lot. You have no numerical data upon which to base this assumption because, as has been explained many times now, it isn't possible to know the "economic benefit" of any specific job, not even approximately, not even within an order of magnitude, not even whether it is positive or negative. Even more importantly, the revenues, the profits, the losses - they all belong to the shareholders in their entirety. Employees have no claims upon them whatsoever. You make a lot more sense when you talk about the need for jobs that pay a living wage. --Percy
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Straggler Member (Idle past 95 days) Posts: 10333 From: London England Joined: |
Meta Study writes: The standard competitive model makes stark predictions about the employment effects of the minimum wage: a binding minimum wage will price at least some low wage workers out of jobs and will unambiguously lower employment. Wiki on minimum wage writes: According to the model shown in nearly all introductory textbooks on economics, increasing the minimum wage decreases the employment of minimum-wage workers.[18] One such textbook says: If a higher minimum wage increases the wage rates of unskilled workers above the level that would be established by market forces, the quantity of unskilled workers employed will fall. This is the economics 101position Krugman is talking about. But this is what the study in question says:
quote: So the conclusion of the paper is that the simple supply and demand model (AKA the economics 101 position) completely ignores one of the main channels of adjustment — Namely decreased costs due to reduced staff turnover. In your various appeals to supply and demand in this thread did you take this particular channel of adjustment into account? If not — You might want to incorporate it into your thinking on this issue in future. Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.
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Straggler Member (Idle past 95 days) Posts: 10333 From: London England Joined: |
Percy writes: You're still operating under the delusion that you can somehow know this economic benefit for any specific job. You are still operating under the delusion that businesses go round hiring and firing people without making some estimate (whether formal or informal) of the costs of employment Vs the economic benefit derived from the work in question being done. Economic benefit of the sort I detailed in the network engineer example in Message 195.
Percy writes: You can't. But we do.
Percy writes: You not only can't even know it approximately, you can't even know whether it is positive or negative. If the result of the work not being done is a cost of millions and the salary paid for doing that work is in the thousands then you can quite confidently say that the economic benefit from that work being done is positive.
Percy writes: I'm telling you that you can't even know whether it is positive or negative. I'm telling you that if this was true I wouldn't be able to write business cases for new network engineers. I'm telling you that you are wrong.
Percy writes: You have nothing upon which to base your claims. I've cited the network engineer example and you yourself have cited the example of striking truckers causing million dollar per day losses as a result of witholding their labour.
Percy writes: You have nothing upon which to base your claims. On what do you base your claim that the utility based value of work must remain some sort of absolute mystery? It is you making baseless assertions here. Not I.
Percy writes: You're just assuming executives contribute little and the rank and file contribute a lot. No. I'm sure that some execs do provide economic benefit that is commensurate with their rewards. But I'm also sure that many are being rewarded for failure and using the cry of "market forces" to justify rewards that are otherwise unjustifiable.
Percy writes: You have no numerical data... Yes I do. I have written actual business cases for actual network engineers for an actual business based on estimating the actual economic impact of not doing the work in question.
Percy writes: ....as has been explained many times now, it isn't possible to know the "economic benefit" of any specific job, not even approximately, not even within an order of magnitude, not even whether it is positive or negative. Imagine if I went to my IT director and said that we need a new network engineer to do some work the value to the business of which is entirely unable to be even remotely ascertained. It might exceed the cost of employing that new engineer. Or it might not. We have no idea. It's impossible to say. Because (to quote you) "It would be like trying to assign a value to each of your cell's contribution to your life." No matter how passionately you mistakenly believe it to be true the real world just doesn't work like that.
Percy writes: Even more importantly, the revenues, the profits, the losses - they all belong to the shareholders in their entirety. Employees have no claims upon them whatsoever. As I have pointed out to you previously profits are calculated after costs and that labour, much like materials, qualifies as a cost that needs to be deducted before profit. So your point is moot at best and indicative of poor understanding on your part at worst.
Percy writes: You make a lot more sense when you talk about the need for jobs that pay a living wage. 1) At a shareholder meeting shareholders question the $10 million annual salary and benefit package of the CEO on the basis that he has failed to bring sufficient economic benefit to the role to justify that level of reward. 2) A government minister makes a speech in which he states that those who provide considerable economic benefit to highly profitable multinational corporations can reasonably expect to earn enough to feed, clothe and house themselves. Why is 1) and more or less economically sensible than 2)....?
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Straggler Member (Idle past 95 days) Posts: 10333 From: London England Joined: |
See Message 409
One conclusion of the Schmitt paper seems to be that the simple supply and demand model (AKA the economics 101 position referred to by Krugman) completely ignores one of the main channels of adjustment — Namely decreased costs due to reduced staff turnover.
Tangle writes: I also suspect that over a very long term - 20-50 years a steadily increasing minimum wage will make large changes to a countries economy - I'd expect a large reduction in 'menial' jobs but also an increase in work that requires more intellectual effort. I'm not sure that is an effect of minimum wage so much as a general effect of becoming a "developed" economy.
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Straggler Member (Idle past 95 days) Posts: 10333 From: London England Joined: |
CS writes: No, I can't imagine any way for that to be correct. Then let me assist you.
quote: Wiki On Economic Value Percy writes: Let's say the box stackers go on strike and shut the company down, costing the company millions of dollars in lost business per day. CS — What is the ‘real value’ to the business of the labour being withheld by the striking workers?
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Percy Member Posts: 22505 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Hi Straggler,
Now you've gone back to confusing two different things again. You think that when you make your *business case* for a new network engineer that you've somehow approximated the "economic benefit" to the company of that job, but you haven't. A *business case* is one thing, and this "economic benefit" to the company thing you keep talking about (which is fictional) is something else. When you've made your business case for a new network engineer, all you've done is approximated the "economic benefit" to the company of adding that job so it can work in concert with all the other jobs in the company upon which that new job depends in order to make any contribution at all, just as the "economic benefit" of all the other jobs in the company also depends upon all the other jobs in the company. You cannot separate out the separate contributions to the "economic benefit" of the company of any individual job, or even group of jobs. If you could approximate such a thing then you could also approximate the relative "life benefit" contributions of your heart, lungs, kidneys, liver, etc., but you can't. They work in concert together to give you life. They're all necessary. Breaking it down into separate "life benefit" contributions just isn't possible. A job is worth what someone is willing to pay for it that someone else is willing to accept. It has nothing to do with any imaginary "economic benefit" to the company. It's not how key a job is to a company's business that determines the pay. It's the number of people who can do the job that determines its value. A network engineer might be absolutely essential to a company's business, but if there's a million network engineers out there who can do the same job then the pay won't be much. --Percy
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Panda Member (Idle past 3742 days) Posts: 2688 From: UK Joined:
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Percy writes:
How do employers decide if they are willing to pay a particular wage? A job is worth what someone is willing to pay for it that someone else is willing to accept. It has nothing to do with any imaginary "economic benefit" to the company."There is no great invention, from fire to flying, which has not been hailed as an insult to some god." J. B. S. Haldane
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Straggler Member (Idle past 95 days) Posts: 10333 From: London England Joined: |
Jon writes: Each step in the production process of a finished good or service presumably adds some value to the good or service. Not in utility terms.
Jon writes: Each step is also presumably essential. All essential steps are required to derive any value at all in terms of utility from the good or service.
quote: Wiki On Economic Value Percy writes: Let's say the box stackers go on strike and shut the company down, costing the company millions of dollars in lost business per day. What is the ‘real value’ to the business of the labour that is being withheld by the striking workers?
Jon writes: Your method cannot work, because removing any step in the process leaves us without the good or service we want and causes us to conclude that every step individually contributes 100% of the economic benefit; which is clearly nonsense. The book in the example above can be said to have utility worth of $100,000.00 not because the author, the book binder, the printer, the bookshop owner etc. etc. etc. each added a calculable percentage that adds up to 100. That isn't how utility works. Now of course this book example is different to a business deriving profit from labour in that the book example involves a one-off sale event rather than a continuous supply of labour from which profit is continuously derived. This is where the anology breaks down. Because the author, book binder et al don't have to depend on that one book for their ongoing livelihoods. What I am saying is that those who provide economic benefit to a business, those who perform a role in making the business operational and profitable, can at the very least expect to earn enough to feed, clothe and house themselves.
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New Cat's Eye Inactive Member |
What is the ‘real value’ to the business of the labour being withheld by the striking workers? All of the jobs are necessary for the business to function, so the 'real value' of every job would be the gross profit of the company. I don't see how that helps with anything.
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Straggler Member (Idle past 95 days) Posts: 10333 From: London England Joined: |
Percy writes: Now you've gone back to confusing two different things again. You think that when you make your *business case* for a new network engineer that you've somehow approximated the "economic benefit" to the company of that job, but you haven't. I have estimated the economic impact of that work not being undertaken. This is what I told you I meant by economic benefit. Effectively value in terms of utility.
Percy writes: A *business case* is one thing, and this "economic benefit" to the company thing you keep talking about (which is fictional) is something else. If you are defining economic benefit differently to me perhaps you could tell us what you mean?
Percy writes: You cannot separate out the separate contributions to the "economic benefit" of the company of any individual job, or even group of jobs. I'm not separating out individual contributions. That is your straw man.
Percy writes: A job is worth what someone is willing to pay for it that someone else is willing to accept. It has nothing to do with any imaginary "economic benefit" to the company. Remember our striking truckers? Let's for one crazy moment imagine that you are responsible for negotiating the pay deal for those workers. Do you think the fact that the company in question is losing millions per day might be relevant to your position in those negotiations? If you were the negotiator would you say "The number of people who can do the job that determines its value"....? Or would that stance be a dereliction of your duties as negotiator on behalf of the striking workers? Try and see things from more than one perspective Percy. That is the key here......
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Percy Member Posts: 22505 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Panda writes: How do employers decide if they are willing to pay a particular wage? You mean like in the real world? My employer's Human Resources department subscribes to salary surveys. They try to keep our salaries competitive with other companies in the same and similar industries. In other words, they pay market prices. We went through an interesting experience earlier this year when we tried to hire five new people. Our offer to the first person we tried to hire was turned down. Our offer to the second person was turned down, too. Evidently things were turning around in our industry while we were between salary cycles. We adjusted our salary scale upward accordingly (not just because of my group - other groups in our company were experiencing the same problem), and we countered to the second person. They accepted. We were able to hire four more people over about four months. The adjusted salary scale will be reflected in the salary adjustments to current employees that take place later this year. If my employer doesn't keep salaries in line with what's available out there then we would start experiencing a talent outflow. In other words, employers pay wages at prevailing market levels. That's how they "decide if they are willing to pay a particular wage." They pay a little more for more talent and experience, and a little less for less talent and experience. Employers will also pay a little more if they prefer to minimize turnover. --Percy
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Straggler Member (Idle past 95 days) Posts: 10333 From: London England Joined: |
It helps by confirming that the workers in question are absolutely vital to the operational success and profitability of the business in question and that paying them a subsistence wage whilst making huge profits is thus unjustified.
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Straggler Member (Idle past 95 days) Posts: 10333 From: London England Joined: |
In the real world it is perfectly legitimate to take positions such as the following based on the expectation that reward and the economic benefit provided should be coommensurate to some degree.
1) At a shareholder meeting shareholders question the $10 million annual salary and benefit package of the CEO on the basis that he has failed to bring sufficient economic benefit to the role to justify that level of reward. 2) A government minister makes a speech in which he states that those who provide considerable economic benefit to highly profitable multinational corporations can reasonably expect to earn enough to feed, clothe and house themselves. In such cases saying "market forces market foces" isn't the answer so much as the problem......
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