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Author Topic:   History's Greatest Holocaust Via Atheistic Ideology
Dan Carroll
Inactive Member


Message 136 of 287 (80849)
01-26-2004 11:34 AM
Reply to: Message 128 by Phat
01-25-2004 12:58 AM


quote:
Chiroptera, you are one of the nicest atheists I have ever met! This statement that you made... was a great lil breath of fresh air as I was making my way through this post.
If that's a new one on you, you should read up a little on various atheist philosophies. Jean Paul-Sartre's writings on existentialism are a good place to start. One thing he said stuck with me ever since I read it. (And keep in mind, I'm paraphrasing a translation, here.) It amounts to "God doesn't exist. Therefore, there is no omnipotent being that's going to sort out the punishments and rewards after we die. Therefore, we have an enormous responsibility to do right by one another while we're alive, because no one is going to take that responsibility on for us."

"It isn't faith that makes good science, it's curiosity."
-Professor Barnhard, The Day the Earth Stood Still

This message is a reply to:
 Message 128 by Phat, posted 01-25-2004 12:58 AM Phat has not replied

  
Stephen ben Yeshua
Inactive Member


Message 137 of 287 (81129)
01-27-2004 1:10 PM
Reply to: Message 131 by Silent H
01-25-2004 2:51 PM


Getting bayes
Holmes,
According to Steve's version of Bayes theorem that has just made your theory more probable. I can only assume it has made most of ours more probable as well.
If you think this is true, you don't understand Bayes, or what I have been saying. The hypothesis that I am working under, as I explained to Asgara, predicted that my wife would not be a reliable witness to the event under question. If your epistemology allows you to form judgments on the basis of he said-she said discussions, that's a choice you make. But Bayes doesn't recommend it.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 131 by Silent H, posted 01-25-2004 2:51 PM Silent H has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 138 by Percy, posted 01-27-2004 1:35 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied
 Message 147 by Silent H, posted 01-27-2004 5:18 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22504
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 138 of 287 (81137)
01-27-2004 1:35 PM
Reply to: Message 137 by Stephen ben Yeshua
01-27-2004 1:10 PM


Re: Getting bayes
Stephen ben Yeshua writes:
If your epistemology allows you to form judgments on the basis of he said-she said discussions, that's a choice you make. But Bayes doesn't recommend it.
Then I'm afraid you're contradicting yourself when you said this in Message 159 of The best scientific method thread:
5. (First Bayesian step) Some effort is made to estimate the prior plausibility of the hypotheses. Since this is the process by which subjectivity is turned into objectivity, subjective impressions are given full rein here.
Consistency *is* tough for you, isn't it? Or is it just that it's okay for *you* to confer scientific status upon your subjective impressions, but not for anyone else.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 137 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-27-2004 1:10 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 139 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-27-2004 1:54 PM Percy has replied

  
Stephen ben Yeshua
Inactive Member


Message 139 of 287 (81144)
01-27-2004 1:54 PM
Reply to: Message 138 by Percy
01-27-2004 1:35 PM


Re: Getting bayes
Percy,
The remarks were addressed to the forming of posterior plausibilities, or so I thought. This is objective, and requires the prediction to be in contradiction to the hypothesis being discounted. But, I predicted, before the data were gathered, from the hypothesis, what I understand the experiment produced, even though the data appeared to be a "denial" of the reported history.
Bayes says not to do that. It's called setting up a straw man.
But, people grabbing at straws to hold on to cherished beliefs will do what they will. Free will trumps intelligence.
Stephen

This message is a reply to:
 Message 138 by Percy, posted 01-27-2004 1:35 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 140 by Percy, posted 01-27-2004 2:39 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22504
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 140 of 287 (81156)
01-27-2004 2:39 PM
Reply to: Message 139 by Stephen ben Yeshua
01-27-2004 1:54 PM


Re: Getting bayes
Hi, Stephen!
You can flit back and forth all you like between your prior and posterior plausibilities, but does not remove objectivity as a primary requirement for the conducting of good science. Subjective impressions and experiences are not permitted. That you have defined a process that permits subjectivity is why you are arriving at conclusions sans scientific data.
You have no evidence for demons, no replicable experiment, no confirmation by other scientists, yet by your process you conclude they exist, thereby proving how fatally flawed your process is. Using your process anyone can conclude anything they like, from demons to flying pigs.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 139 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-27-2004 1:54 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 141 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-27-2004 2:50 PM Percy has replied

  
Stephen ben Yeshua
Inactive Member


Message 141 of 287 (81162)
01-27-2004 2:50 PM
Reply to: Message 140 by Percy
01-27-2004 2:39 PM


Re: Getting bayes
P,
you conclude they exist
See, there you go again. And I could tell you 1000 times that H-D science never draws such conclusions, and you'd still mistake the claims of the method. Evidence for an idea makes the idea more plausible. Prayer studies, etc, make it more plausible. Period. The process never concludes. Nor do the ideas ever stop changing form.
S.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 140 by Percy, posted 01-27-2004 2:39 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 142 by Percy, posted 01-27-2004 2:56 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied
 Message 150 by Mammuthus, posted 01-28-2004 3:31 AM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22504
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 142 of 287 (81166)
01-27-2004 2:56 PM
Reply to: Message 141 by Stephen ben Yeshua
01-27-2004 2:50 PM


Re: Getting bayes
Stephen ben Yehsua writes:
See, there you go again. And I could tell you 1000 times that H-D science never draws such conclusions, and you'd still mistake the claims of the method. Evidence for an idea makes the idea more plausible. Prayer studies, etc, make it more plausible. Period. The process never concludes. Nor do the ideas ever stop changing form.
You're being evasive again. Nothing in particular was intended by my choice of words, you're just using that as an excuse to not address the central issue. Objectivity is a required part of accepted scientific practice. That you permit subjectivity to enter into your process is why you think you have experimental results that support the existence of demons even though you have no scientific data whatsoever.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 141 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-27-2004 2:50 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 143 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-27-2004 3:35 PM Percy has replied

  
Stephen ben Yeshua
Inactive Member


Message 143 of 287 (81178)
01-27-2004 3:35 PM
Reply to: Message 142 by Percy
01-27-2004 2:56 PM


Re: Getting bayes
P.
Objectivity is a required part of accepted scientific practice.
But, just a part. Subjectivity is also a required part. Do the google on hypothetico-deductive to see how accepted this is.
S.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 142 by Percy, posted 01-27-2004 2:56 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 144 by Percy, posted 01-27-2004 4:31 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22504
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 144 of 287 (81190)
01-27-2004 4:31 PM
Reply to: Message 143 by Stephen ben Yeshua
01-27-2004 3:35 PM


Re: Getting bayes
But, just a part. Subjectivity is also a required part. Do the google on hypothetico-deductive to see how accepted this is.
Gee, Stephen, I did just that in Message 170 of The best scientific method thread, and guess what! No mention of subjectivity or Bayesianism! As we've been telling you, you're not doing HD, but rather subjective Bayesianism.
Perhaps you can cease the evasions and explain how subjective impressions can yield objective results.
Have you ever looked at an optical illusion? There's all kinds, of course, but the subjective impression of most of the human race is incorrect concerning these illusions. Most of them would attach a very high probability to their impression, but it would be worthless, much like subjective Bayesianism. Which line is longer, Stephen?
That most people unfamiliar with this common illusion would answer this question incorrectly says much more about subjective Bayesianism than about the length of the lines, and your question in another thread concerning the prior probability assigned by people to the existence of demons is equally unlikely to yield reliable results.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 143 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-27-2004 3:35 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 146 by MrHambre, posted 01-27-2004 4:46 PM Percy has not replied
 Message 149 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-27-2004 10:15 PM Percy has replied

  
Buzsaw
Inactive Member


Message 145 of 287 (81191)
01-27-2004 4:33 PM


For what it's worth here's a statement I gleaned from a debate regarding the supernatural evil. I cannot verify as to the accuracy of the information, though according to the statement it is verifiable for anyone who would care to take the trouble to investigate.
Jinn (better known as demons), for example, do exist and this is a scientific fact. The Jinn can be proved through exorcism, which is proven to exist. It is based on evidence from hospitals--such as public records from Georgetown Hospital in Washington, DC. --which has hosted exorcisms in the past, and also the fact that several years ago, the New York State government paid for an exorcism in Creedmore Psychiatric Hospital in Queens, New York. When the doctors at Creedmore went to the State authorities and told them that an 8 year old boy was speaking ancient Babylonian and fought of 5 security guards, the doctors insisted that the boy was not insane as originally thought--he was possessed by a supernatural entity. So as you can see, Ali, even men of science like our medical doctors, and even disbelieving or skeptical individuals like our United States government authorities apparently acknowledge the supernatural, and more specifically, demonic possession, or else they would not have paid or participated in an exorcism. This is, of course, in addition to the dozens of exorcisms that both priests and impartial, independent, and corroborating witnesses have reported seeing. Therefore, it is not blind faith to believe in the Jinn. Jinn exist”just ask the New York State authorities that approved tax payer money to pay for their exorcisms, or you can ask the doctors that heard that boy speak ancient Babylonian.
http//WordPress › Error

Replies to this message:
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MrHambre
Member (Idle past 1421 days)
Posts: 1495
From: Framingham, MA, USA
Joined: 06-23-2003


Message 146 of 287 (81195)
01-27-2004 4:46 PM
Reply to: Message 144 by Percy
01-27-2004 4:31 PM


Popper and Subjectivity
It might interest Doc Steve to know that hypothetico-deductive method isn't as dependent on subjectivity as he claims. Popper's belief was that trying to prove a scientific hypothesis correct through induction was an unwieldy and self-defeating process, since unforeseen information could always serve to counteract the evidence in favor of the hypothesis.
This problem became the basis of Popper's H-D method, which proposed to test a hypothesis through deduction. His specific method was predicated on testing predictions derived from the hypothesis in order to falsify them. How Doc Steve interprets this as giving free reign to subjectivity is beyond me.

The dark nursery of evolution is very dark indeed.
Brad McFall

This message is a reply to:
 Message 144 by Percy, posted 01-27-2004 4:31 PM Percy has not replied

  
Silent H
Member (Idle past 5848 days)
Posts: 7405
From: satellite of love
Joined: 12-11-2002


Message 147 of 287 (81205)
01-27-2004 5:18 PM
Reply to: Message 137 by Stephen ben Yeshua
01-27-2004 1:10 PM


Thanks again for proving my point...
You say that your hypothesis was X and that the results proved your hypothesis.
Yet others (such as Asgara and myself) formulated a different hypothesis (Y), and those results support it as well.
How do you decide with hypothesis is correct, given that the same results can support either one?
And what I love is that you used the same he said she said style of evidence, not just to support your hypothesis above, but some of your other "studies" as well. Or does the voice in your head not count as he said she said?

holmes
"...what a fool believes he sees, no wise man has the power to reason away.."(D. Bros)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 137 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-27-2004 1:10 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has not replied

  
Percy
Member
Posts: 22504
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 4.9


Message 148 of 287 (81216)
01-27-2004 5:53 PM
Reply to: Message 145 by Buzsaw
01-27-2004 4:33 PM


Hi, Buzz!
In your link, you forgot the ":" after "http". Your link should have been:
It gets interpreted as a link anyway since the "http//" part is ignored and links are allowed to start with just "www", but the webpage doesn't appear to exist. You can test links before posting by clicking on the "Preview" button, then clicking on the links in your post to see if they work.
The correct link that you wanted is:
But the information provided by Wissam is anecdotal, not scientific. The existence of demons is not dependent upon the opinions of hospitals or doctors. You might also exercise a little skepticism. Given that no one speaks ancient Babylonian anymore, how would even linguistic experts know the boy was speaking ancient Babylonian, let alone medical doctors in Queens. You might also get an interesting response if you follow Wissam's advice to call hospitals and ask if they really pay for exorcisms, or even believe in demons.
Buzz, you've got to exercise some judgment on things like this by referring to your own experience. You've no doubt been to hospitals - has any hospital you've been to given any indication using exorcisms as a medical procedure? Have you ever had a doctor who thought a medical condition was due to demons? Have you ever had a medical condition where doctors prescribed exorcism, or known anyone who has? Of course not. So what makes you believe that hospitals and doctors you haven't come in contact with believe in exorcisms and demons? I'm sure there must be at least a few doctors out there that fit the bill, but by and large doctors and hospitals are part of the scientific community.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 145 by Buzsaw, posted 01-27-2004 4:33 PM Buzsaw has not replied

  
Stephen ben Yeshua
Inactive Member


Message 149 of 287 (81268)
01-27-2004 10:15 PM
Reply to: Message 144 by Percy
01-27-2004 4:31 PM


Re: Getting bayes
P.
Perhaps you can cease the evasions and explain how subjective impressions can yield objective results.
The subjective impressions are used to build the hypothesis that you are going to test, and to give it its prior plausibility. Neither of these are results, only beginning steps. The rest of the process is objective. There was no limitation in any of the H-D sites setting an limit on hypothesis formation, only on the rigor of testing.
S.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 144 by Percy, posted 01-27-2004 4:31 PM Percy has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 151 by Percy, posted 01-28-2004 10:00 AM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

  
Mammuthus
Member (Idle past 6504 days)
Posts: 3085
From: Munich, Germany
Joined: 08-09-2002


Message 150 of 287 (81295)
01-28-2004 3:31 AM
Reply to: Message 141 by Stephen ben Yeshua
01-27-2004 2:50 PM


Re: Getting bayes
quote:
Evidence for an idea makes the idea more plausible. Prayer studies, etc, make it more plausible
Evidence for an idea would make it more plausible if it were actually evidence. You claiming that demons eat your breakfast leaving you hungry is not "evidence" and thus does not make your idea more plausible. Evidence demonstrating that prayer has no effect beyond a placebo effect in medical studies is evidence that prayer does nothing. Your claim is that one should ignore the controlled studies that show this is so and accept the idea that because somebody did a study in the first place makes the idea more plausible. Just because someone had the idea that one could turn any metal into gold does not make alchemy any more plausible either.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 141 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-27-2004 2:50 PM Stephen ben Yeshua has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 152 by Stephen ben Yeshua, posted 01-31-2004 2:20 PM Mammuthus has replied

  
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