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Author Topic:   Atheists identified as America’s most distrusted minority
nwr
Member
Posts: 6412
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 4 of 60 (299681)
03-30-2006 8:11 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by melatonin
03-30-2006 7:55 PM


What about "non-religious" people?
I guessing that if the same question were asked about non-religious people, they would have a higher degree of acceptance. People just don't understand the meaning of "atheist".

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 Message 1 by melatonin, posted 03-30-2006 7:55 PM melatonin has replied

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nwr
Member
Posts: 6412
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 7 of 60 (299695)
03-30-2006 8:55 PM
Reply to: Message 5 by melatonin
03-30-2006 8:22 PM


Re: What about "non-religious" people?
I do find it strange. In europe atheism is a well-respected position.
It has to do with how they are depicted on the media. What people mostly see are the in-your-face angry atheists. The people who simply don't have any religious beliefs are ignored, so people don't identify them as atheists.
Moreover, in the UK, where we have no separation of church and state, there is little of the militant christianity you seem to have in the US. Maybe we just become sick of having it shoved down our throats as children.
It seems that most of the militant ones left Britain, and headed this way.

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 Message 5 by melatonin, posted 03-30-2006 8:22 PM melatonin has replied

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nwr
Member
Posts: 6412
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 31 of 60 (299914)
03-31-2006 6:43 PM
Reply to: Message 30 by Silent H
03-31-2006 6:15 PM


I suggested that no one has ever tried to substantiate that small samples are capable of reflecting accurately a population which is vast and widespread. Its a very practical issue I am raising here.
I'll have to agree with Zhimbo here.
Sampling is based on the mathematics of probability. A sample size of 2000, if I recall correctly, gives a result within a 3% confidence interval. In looking at the results, you have to recognize that their accuracy is limited to the confidence interval. This is usually stated when such sampling is presented. The sampling methodology is usually also published, and is thus subject to critical analysis.
Lets use a 2000 into 400 million across the NA hemisphere example. The numbers of people and large amount of space allows for a vast number of cultural and subcultural pockets with their own dynamics. The greater number of samples from any specific area represents that area better, but means one sacrifices full representation of another area. And of course that also sacrifices the total number of areas one can sample at all.
The mathematics is based on random sampling, not on representative sampling. It is important that the sampling be reasonably random, but it need not be fully representative.
Getting an adequately random sample can be tricky. There is actually a body of research on that problem.
Using a sample size of, say, 10 million would actually make the problem far harder. It is difficult to use that large a sample without introducing a lot of systematic bias.
These sampling methods gain credibility from the fact that they are repeatable. Some other group will likely carry out a similar experiment, and that will either support the results or provide a basis for challenging them. If much larger samples were used, you would actually lose this benefit of repeatability, for the cost of repeating would be prohibitive.

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nwr
Member
Posts: 6412
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 34 of 60 (300043)
04-01-2006 11:03 AM
Reply to: Message 32 by Silent H
04-01-2006 4:28 AM


Lets imagine a population within a large rectangle. As it turns out most people live within a small circle toward the lower left edge of the rectangle. If one distributes the samples geographically (evenly over the rectangle) then one does not get an accurate sampling of the majority population's opinions.
This is a bogus issue. The researchers are sampling the population, not the geography. To the extent that they use geographic methods, they have to take into account local population densities so that there will be a random selection from the population.
How does one get an adequately random sample for a heterogenous population distributed unevenly across an area?
This is a known and well studied problem. There is published research in the area. Here is a link to a professional organization in the discipline. It is sensitive to social trends - a sampling method that works today might not work next year.
I am suggesting that with such vast numbers over such vast terrain, which allows for many "clumps", 2000 is going to be too small for an adequate sampling such that one can get good representational results.
If the sampling is done reasonably well, then 2,000 is sufficient. If it is done poorly, a larger sample size won't solve the problems of poor sampling.
I feel my gut instinct on this is backed up by failures of polling.
Overall, the experience pubic opinion survey organizations to rather well. Amateurs are more prone to poor experimental design.
Poor sampling is only one of the problems. The wording of the questions asked can be important. Poorly chosen wording can result in misunderstood questions or can stimulate emotional responses. This is a harder problem than the sampling problem. Using a larger sample size does nothing to avoid this problem. Incidently, a survey about attitudes toward atheism may be particularly sensitive to problems associated with how the questions are worded.
This would suggest that voting is a less efficient and accurate way to pick representatives, than simply polling 2000 people.
Elections are not public opinion surveys. In an election, you are expecting the voters to make some sort of committment to support the legislature that they elect.
It also suggests that the national census would be less accurate than polling.
I think there is some evidence to support this. However, the national census does provide basic data that can be used in polling - local population densities, for example.
Kinsey's research did not try to get a bare minimum sampling, but as much sampling as could be gotten.
Polling works best when you have clear issues. That is, you know what you are looking for and just need the opinion data. As far as I know, Kinsey and associates were looking for more basic data, such as would be required before you could even design a statistical experiment.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 32 by Silent H, posted 04-01-2006 4:28 AM Silent H has replied

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 Message 38 by Silent H, posted 04-01-2006 1:26 PM nwr has replied

  
nwr
Member
Posts: 6412
From: Geneva, Illinois
Joined: 08-08-2005
Member Rating: 5.3


Message 39 of 60 (300084)
04-01-2006 1:45 PM
Reply to: Message 38 by Silent H
04-01-2006 1:26 PM


In my gut I do not believe that 2000 individuals from a population as large and scattered with many different cultures is sufficient that a sampling can be "done reasonably well" to answer the kind of questions they purport to have answered about the American population as a whole.
What you are missing, is that it is harder to do the sampling "reasonably well" with a sample size of 4000, than it is with a sample size of 2000.
Let's approach this a different way. 2000 individuals were polled across the planet, would that possibly allow us enough information about all humans on earth?
No. But it doesn't claim to give information about all humans. It only claims to give an estimate of the mean (as taken over all humans).
Yeah the idea is "done reasonably well", but isn't there a point where numbers effect what can be done reasonably well? What can be covered?
Sure. In fact increasing the sample size makes it more difficult to do the sampling "reasonably well."
They use public opinion surveys to predict election results, in other words determine what the preference of the american public is... which is what the OP article suggested this research did. Now either polling can do it or not. If it can then why not use it?
As others have pointed out, elections are not public opinion surveys, for various reasons.
The accuracy of a public opinion survey depends on the honesty and the disinterest of those conducting the survey. There is much at stake in an election, such that it would be impossible to guarantee this degree of honesty and detachment. It's hard enough keeping elections honest. Also elections are sometime won or lost on a margin smaller than the error margin of a public opinion survey.
I think there is some evidence to support this.
That polling is more accurate than census data?
When used to survey public opinion, that's my impression. I admit that I don't have hard data to back it up.
Keep in mind that the surveying of public opinion is a secondary issue in the census. The primary issue is finding the geographical distributions, such as needed for electoral redistribution and for implementing various other public policies.

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