Agnosticism vs. Atheism

Dan:
Great post. This is more commonly known as the "Invisible Pink Unicorn" argument."invisible pink unicorn" - Google SearchTheomorphic:
In short there are an infinite number of possibilities in reality. One cannot function considering every last possibility in the world. To function in reality, humans have to entertain the most likely probabilities, and discard all unlikely probabilities. Yes, it's possible that if I don't scream the word "Potato!" at the top of my lungs that I'll drop dead at the end of this post - but the odds of that are so preposterously low, it is not even worth considering. In fact, I *cannot function* if I don't discard unrealistic possibilities. The same holds true with God. Now, the common agnostic response involves Pascal's wager, but do you really want to go there, Theomorphic?

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but what do you do about claims that you don't know the probabilities of?

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and...

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How unrealistic is God?

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Exact probabilities on almost everything that we deal with in life are impossible. However, comparative probability are estimated by humans all of the time; I put the probabilitiy of God about on par with the probability of a large block of gouda falling out of the sky and hitting me on the head. You probably disagree. I was once in your situation. Which is more likely - that we're in a world full of simple physical laws that "just happen to exist", or that we live in a world full of simple physical laws, created by a near infinitely more complex deity which just "happens to exist"?------------------
"Illuminant light,
illuminate me."

Your argument has been that there has been no evidence of God, and thus it is more likely than unusual behaviors of objects that we have seen. How do you come to this conclusion? Even things that have not been witnessed tend to leave *tons* of evidence behind. Take a look at the Toba supervolcano, for example. The lack of any solid evidence to suggest a God of any kind means that it is based purely on conjecture, in the same manner that one could conjecture about invisible baboons or randomly plummetting gouda.In your "black box" example, I would use my knowledge of reality to conclude that there is about as much of a chance that we'll find an invisible baboon in it as that we'll find an omnipotent deity.------------------
"Illuminant light,
illuminate me."

Few atheists will say "I know Gods don't exist". As a general rule, atheists would say something to the effect of "The chance of Gods existing is so low that it is not even worth considering."------------------
"Illuminant light,
illuminate me."

I think this about sums this conversation up:Kinja"God Answers Prayers Of Paralyzed Little Body: 'No,' Says God"------------------
"Illuminant light,
illuminate me."