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Author | Topic: So I Wrote A Book On The Scientific Method | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
CosmicChimp Member Posts: 311 From: Muenchen Bayern Deutschland Joined: |
The weather here has been rocking and so have been out quite a bit. Have been reading your book too. Still reading, nice stuff.
I like your book well enough; have some picky points on details mainly about style. Have to finish it first. Back with more later.
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Dr Adequate Member (Idle past 312 days) Posts: 16113 Joined:
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I don't see how you can soy such a mutable thug, my style is perfucktly fnurdible mangrove poop.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9512 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
Can anyone put me straight - does a scientific theory HAVE to be predictive? Is explanatory enough? I need a credible reference either way.
Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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ramoss Member (Idle past 640 days) Posts: 3228 Joined: |
Here is a reference you might want to look at.
21st Century Scientist: Predictive power and explanatory power
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
Can anyone put me straight - does a scientific theory HAVE to be predictive? Is explanatory enough? I need a credible reference either way. A description that makes no predictions is untestable. And the central part of applying the scientific method is testing of hypotheses. For what part of the above do you require a reference? Scientific method - Wikipedia
quote: Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
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Tangle Member Posts: 9512 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
NoNukes writes: A description that makes no predictions is untestable. Is it? It seems to me that geological theories are explanations of the past that can not be tested by looking to the future. At the moment lots of social science's theories seem only capable of explaining past events. And a theory can be disproved by past evidence coming to light. BUT, I agree, a good theory should provide predictions; my question is whether that is a requirement.Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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ringo Member (Idle past 440 days) Posts: 20940 From: frozen wasteland Joined: |
Tangle writes:
You don't predict our future; you predict the future of the events you are trying to explain, which are in our past. Or, as Fred Flintstone would say, "This week was next week last week." It seems to me that geological theories are explanations of the past that can not be tested by looking to the future. Edited by zombie ringo, : Spellng.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9512 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
dead ringer writes: You don't predict our future; you predict the future of the events you are trying to explain, which are in our past. Or, as Fred Flintstone would say, "This week was next week last week." We can show that the planets follow a particular rule by predicting their movements, where they will be at a particular time in the future. It's a very strong form of evidence. Theoretical physicists predict the existence of various particles and experiments find them - sometimes many years later. My question is whether prediction is necessary.Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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ringo Member (Idle past 440 days) Posts: 20940 From: frozen wasteland Joined: |
Tangle writes:
The scientific method is a cycle of predictions and testing predictions. My question is whether prediction is necessary. So yes.
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Tangle Member Posts: 9512 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
ZR writes: The scientific method is a cycle of predictions and testing predictions. Well I tend to agree and that has always been my understanding, but, I have so far been unable to find an authoritative source that says it's a requirement. have found a few that don't seem to require it.Life, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
It seems to me that geological theories are explanations of the past that can not be tested by looking to the future. Predictions means outcomes required by a hypothesis. Those predictions need not be of the future. For example, when Einstein showed that his theory of gravity reproduced the anomalies of Mercury's orbit, where those anomalies were not explained by Newtonian gravitation, Einstein was providing verification of his hypothesis. Einstein showed that his hypothesis fit past data. If the predictions are of the future, that is great. That would increase the chance that the prediction was legitimate and not developed by fudging. Some cranks even today insist incorrectly that Einstein put in fudge factors to get Mercury's orbit correct. But the fudge factors simply are not there. Einstein's equations are about as elegant as science gets. A purely descriptive hypothesis, as I understand it, would have no ability to anticipate something we did not already know, regardless of whether that something was in the future or had happened in the past. It would merely explain what we see. There would be no way to scientifically examine such a hypothesis. Perhaps our difference is merely about the meaning of prediction. Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given. Edited by NoNukes, : No reason given.Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
have found a few that don't seem to require it. Could you provide some examples? That would seem to be the quickest way to resolve the question. My personal view, for the reasons I have given, is that non-predictive means untestable.Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
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NoNukes Inactive Member |
I read the first chapter and have some questions relating to style and choice of examples. I am off all next week and I will give you some comments by Tuesday.
Under a government which imprisons any unjustly, the true place for a just man is also in prison. Thoreau: Civil Disobedience (1846) I have never met a man so ignorant that I couldn't learn something from him. Galileo Galilei If there is no struggle, there is no progress. Those who profess to favor freedom, and deprecate agitation, are men who want crops without plowing up the ground, they want rain without thunder and lightning. Frederick Douglass
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RAZD Member (Idle past 1433 days) Posts: 20714 From: the other end of the sidewalk Joined: |
Can anyone put me straight - does a scientific theory HAVE to be predictive? Is explanatory enough? I need a credible reference either way. It seems to me that if a theory has explanatory ability, that coupled with the premise that, all things being equal, it should continue to accurately explain the evidence, that this is a prediction, and that each new instance of evidence is a test of that prediction that the explanation will continue to hold. Is this not how the theory of evolution explains the fossil evidence and predicts that any new fossil finds will be explained by the theory? Enjoy. Edited by RAZD, : clrtyby our ability to understand Rebel☮American☆Zen☯Deist ... to learn ... to think ... to live ... to laugh ... to share. Join the effort to solve medical problems, AIDS/HIV, Cancer and more with Team EvC! (click)
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Tangle Member Posts: 9512 From: UK Joined: Member Rating: 4.8 |
RAZD writes: Is this not how the theory of evolution explains the fossil evidence and predicts that any new fossil finds will be explained by the theory? I don't think so. What it does is explain the fossils we find. Finding another fossil tomorrow has no predictive ability. (Except, of course, the rabbit in the wrong strata which is cool but not necessary to explain the theory). I thought that I would find something definitive at talkorigins - but see if you can find the word 'prediction' on this page: Evolution is a Fact and a TheoryLife, don't talk to me about life - Marvin the Paranoid Android "Science adjusts it's views based on what's observed.Faith is the denial of observation so that Belief can be preserved." - Tim Minchin, in his beat poem, Storm.
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