Maybe this has been done before. I wouldn't have been too interested, because I didn't know much. However, recently I came across two completely opposed views through the media, and I had to do some research to find out who's lying to me (or passing on their own deception to me).
This seems a great place to test out what I'm finding.
The
EPA's web site says that the following things are known about global warming (wording condensed by me):
1. Human activities have increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere.
2. A warming trend of roughly 1 degree fahrenheit occured during the 20th century.
3. Greenhouse gases like CO2 stay in the atmosphere, so they'll continue to accumulate.
4. Increasing greenhouse gases tend to warm the planet.
Not very specific, really. The more moderate anti-global warming people like Richard Lindzen (moderate as compared to say, Rush Limbaugh) could agree with all this. I agree with all this.
However, here's some specific things I think I'm finding. I've researched only the Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Greenland Ice Sheet, and sea levels (and Mt. Kilimanjaro specifically):
1. Only melting land ice raises sea level. Melting sea ice does not.
2. There are really three major land ice sheets talked about in the web sites I've looked at: The Greenland Ice Sheet, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.
3. The Greenland Ice Sheet is not losing any mass, so it is not contributing to rising sea levels, despite all the hype about it. (From
the EPA.) This isn't certain because of difficulties of measurement, but every study since 1968 listed on their site says it's the same or increasing.
4. The West Antarctic ice sheet is losing mass (
NASA news release, March 2, 2006 and
a Science Daily news release). This was only enough to raise global sea level about 0.2 or 0.4 mm/yr, about half the thickness of a sheet of paper or less.
5. The East Antarctic ice sheet is apparently gaining mass (
Nature's web site news release).
6. The Antarctic Peninsula, which is a small part of West Antarctica, has increased in temperature by 4 or 5 degrees fahrenheit since 1947. This has caused much or perhaps almost all of the West Antarctic melting.
NASA felt free to say that this temperature increase has no apparent link to global warming, but is localized, and "the jury is still out" as to whether the melting will continue.
7. The East Antarctic ice sheet contains 76.5% of the world's ice (85% of Antarctica's, which is 90% of the world's - from the Gulf of Maine link in point 8 and the Nature link in 5).
8. The highest prediction of global sea level increase I saw that looked remotely scholarly was 1 meter, attributed to "some scientists" by the Gulf of Maine Research Institute
here. They add that "some scientists" say that warming could result in more snow in the Antarctic and thus reduce sea levels. Finally, they say that "most scientists" caution that it is very hard to predict what will happen.
My conclusion from what I've seen.
Greenhouse gas accumulation is very real. It causes global warming. How much is uncertain. What its effects have been to date is uncertain. Prediction of future effects is difficult.
The doomsayers, however, are wrong about some things.
1. Sea levels will not rise 15 to 20 feet in the near future, nor in this century.
2. The antarctic has lost a relatively small amount of mass, and the major part of Antarctica is gaining mass.
3. Greenland's ice sheet, the only other major ice sheet in the world, does not appear to be losing any mass.
I think that's nothing but an honest look at the data, but then, I'm not a scientist.
You are welcome to talk about other points, but these are the ones I'm checking on.
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