What process do you use to decide if something is "true" or not?
We argue a lot of what science is and is not. Let's put that aside and see if we can agree on how we know about the world and the things in it.
Let's say we are shopping for a car and we find an ad for one that is half the price we expected to pay for that year and model. Do any of us mail off a cheque and then run out to pick up the car?
I don't think so. For those who aren't willing to believe the ad what do you want to do next?
Maybe you phone the seller? After all who else knows the car better? Is that enough to convince you?
Maybe not. Maybe if you know the seller very well and trust him and know he is knowledgable about mechanices you might trust him. But then none of us knows when a used car is going to break down next.
If you can't afford a large repair bill what do you do? Do you look up what is written about the reliability of the car? Do you read the manufacturer's brochures? Do you read Road and Track and Consumer Report articles?
Maybe you do all those things.
But.....
Just maybe.....
You might actually look at the car. You might even drive it. If you don't trust your own expertise to evaluate it you might take it to an independent garage and ask them to look it over. If it is very important that you get the right answer you might go to another one as well.
What if one of those garages says the odometer may have been turned back. The other one isn't so sure and the seller, of course, says it definitely has NOT been.
You may ask the one who suspects it has been turned back to explain what lead them to think that. They may tell you:
"There are scratches on the odometer housing"
Do you believe them or the seller (your friend) -- you
don't have to! You look for yourself. Well, there are some odd marks but you're not an expert so you don't know for sure if they indicate tampering or not.
"The rubber on the pedals is worn a LOT for such low mileage"
Do you believe them? You
don't have to! You look for yourself.
They are very worn. But not being an expert you look at your old car and those of a few friends with varying milage. Hmmmm the pedals do seem to be warn a lot.
Maybe the suspicious garage comes up with a few other things.
What did you do here?
You used the scientific process!!
You looked for independently verifiable facts. You considered which idea they supported; real low mileage or a tampered odometer. You went with a conclusion best supprted by the facts.
Will that conclustion be cast in stone? No. If you get alternate explanations for the facts you see you'll have to find out more.
It is something like this that almost all of us do at one time or another. This is what "science" is.
If someone thinks there is a better process for determining how likely a particular explanation for something is true I'd like to know what it is.
(this should go in "Is it Science")
Edited by NosyNed, : fixed last sentence
Edited by NosyNed, : tried the last sentence again.
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