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Author | Topic: Brexit - Should they stay or should they go? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
I am curious what effect this will now have on Brexit negotiations. The whole premise behind this snap election was that May would have an even larger majority at her back when entering negotiations. Now, she faces the prospect of struggling to form a coalition and having a diminished bargaining position.
The tentative date for Brexit negotiations to start is June 19th. Only ten days away. She will have to scramble to get that coalition formed. But even so, the EU negotiators are probably now seeing blood in the water and the hand tipped in their favor.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Latest Brexit talks are still hitting a wall despite original optimism about a deal.
Looks like the border between Northern Ireland and the Republican of Ireland is turning into quite a stickler point: Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
quote: This is definitely turning into quite the quagmire.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Seems the situation with the Ireland border is turning into quite the quagmire for the UK leadership:
Theresa May rejects EU's draft option for Northern Ireland - BBC News
quote: I am honestly not sure how they will handle the situation. One the main reasons cited for Brexit was the requirement for stricter border controls. Now that appears to be undermining the fluidity of the current Northern Ireland border.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
House of Lords inflicts Brexit defeat on May’s government — The Irish Times
quote: This is turning into quite the pickle.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
It's going to get messier yet. There's a real chance of a 2nd referendum. I had heard some dialog in regards to that. Although from what I gather, that is a bit of a long shot. I think the concern is that if they call another referendum and Leave wins again, that will cause massive turmoil for the government. And likely result in them having to rush to meet the Brexit deadline next year. Might increase the likelihood of a 'hard Brexit'. IMO, that snap election called by Theresa May really undermined things. It necessitated having to create a coalition with that fringe party in Northern Ireland and also diminished her government's position in the eyes of the EU.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
The snap election made sense at the time, she should have won with a landslide, no-one predicted the result before it happened. Kind of sounds like the 2016 USA election. What is the legality of calling a second referendum? I am assuming that would be something parliament would have to propose? Or can the Prime Minister simply call for another one on her own?
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Boris Johnson tells PM she is suffocating Brexit 'dream' - BBC News
quote: This is becoming quite the quagmire. It appears as though the hard line conservatives aren't going to be satisfied with anything but a hard Brexit.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined:
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I honestly don't see the May government going just yet. Brexit negotiations would be thrown for a loop if there was a sudden changing of the guard. It's less than a year to the deadline of the Article 50 announcement. Unless the conservatives have ultimately decided to just throw the proverbial 'F U' to Europe and aim for a hard Brexit. But I can't fathom that the entire conservative party wanting that outcome.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Was watching Dateline London recently and I see that the Irish border quagmire is still throwing a monkey wrench into Brexit negotiations:
Brexit: Theresa May tells EU leaders their plans must 'evolve' - BBC News
quote: She appears to still be pushing the Chequers deal, even though she has gotten massive push back from members of the conservative party. The most vocal being, of course, Boris Johnson. The clock is ticking here and I am surprised more progress hasn't been made. The Article 50 deadline is only six months away.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Now it looks like the EU flat out stated that the Chequers plan won't work:
Donald Tusk: Theresa May's Brexit trade plan won't work - BBC News
quote:
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
People always underestimate May; but she's stubborn and persistent. She definitely seems to be. I would have already caved under the pressure she is under.
The EU needs to be careful; one way of ensuring that the UK won't vote to remain (if they get the second chance) is to be the arrogant bullies that most here think they are. In all honesty, I haven't been overly impressed with EU bureaucracy on Brexit or many other matters. Brussels comes across as a bunch of aristocrats who seem to be more concerned about their status than formulating good policies. Jean-Claude Juncker honestly sounds like a Bond villain every time he speaks. Mind you, Boris Johnson and Nigel Farange are not exactly helping matters either.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Boris Johnson sets out his 'Super Canada' Brexit plan - BBC News
quote: Don't know the details of his proposal. But my suspicion is this is a calculated political ploy to marshal the conservatives to his side as a preamble to him starting a bid for Prime Minister. Looking at the timing, Boris originally withdrew himself from consideration for PM and May ended up taking the helm. I am wondering if he wanted someone else to take the brunt of the negotiating negativity and then he could swoop in as savior of the UK.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
This whole Brexit thing is a nation standing on a rake, getting thwacked in the face You mean something like this?
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
Latest news/gossip is that 46 of the 48 letters required to force a Conservative party leadership election have been submitted. Proceedings for a new prime minister could be underway by the end of the week. I was wondering how long it would be before some vote of no confidence manifested itself. I can't say if that will make things better or worse. Seems like throwing additional uncertainty into an already uncertain situation may not be the best course of action.
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Diomedes Member Posts: 996 From: Central Florida, USA Joined: |
I guess the real question may be just how much longer she wants to be at the helm? She isn't getting any love from the EU bureaucrats and she is getting continuously scrutinized by her own party. I am wondering if she will eventually throw in the towel if there isn't any kind of cohesive coalition that allows her to make a deal with the EU.
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