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Author Topic:   Interstellar Travel - Possibilities and Human Physiology
subbie
Member (Idle past 1285 days)
Posts: 3509
Joined: 02-26-2006


Message 51 of 63 (504455)
03-28-2009 5:17 PM
Reply to: Message 50 by alaninnont
03-28-2009 5:00 PM


Re: 500 million years left on earth..
quote:
I propose that it is less than 100 years due to the increasing population, decreasing resources, and economics.
Sounds like more Malthusian shortsightedness to me.
quote:
According to Sir John Glubb Pasha's model....
Are you alluding to this? I haven't read it, but I'm curious. Do you have anything newer than 30 years old, or any other corroborating opinions?

For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus -- and non-believers. -- Barack Obama
We see monsters where science shows us windmills. -- Phat

This message is a reply to:
 Message 50 by alaninnont, posted 03-28-2009 5:00 PM alaninnont has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 52 by alaninnont, posted 03-29-2009 9:12 AM subbie has replied
 Message 55 by Taz, posted 03-30-2009 11:24 AM subbie has replied

  
subbie
Member (Idle past 1285 days)
Posts: 3509
Joined: 02-26-2006


Message 57 of 63 (504638)
03-31-2009 11:55 PM
Reply to: Message 52 by alaninnont
03-29-2009 9:12 AM


Re: 500 million years left on earth..
quote:
I'd be happy to be proved wrong. Look at the human population growth curve on this page
Well, I actually looked beyond the graph, to this language at the bottom of the page:
A consensus?
The several agencies that try to predict future population seem to be moving closer to a consensus that:
* the world population will continue to grow until after the middle of this century
* reaching a peak of some 9 billion (up from today's 6.6 billion) and then
* perhaps declining in the waning years of this century.
If I'm reading this right (and I'd like to think that I am), it seems to be at odds with your prediction. You talk about the doubling time getting shorter and shorter, and predict that after two more doublings we'll lack sufficient resources to put together a space-directed solution. However, the (unnamed) experts don't think there will be even one more doubling. I have no idea how accurate this consensus is, but it's most curious for you to cite to a webpage that actually contradicts what you say.

For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus -- and non-believers. -- Barack Obama
We see monsters where science shows us windmills. -- Phat

This message is a reply to:
 Message 52 by alaninnont, posted 03-29-2009 9:12 AM alaninnont has not replied

  
subbie
Member (Idle past 1285 days)
Posts: 3509
Joined: 02-26-2006


Message 58 of 63 (504639)
03-31-2009 11:57 PM
Reply to: Message 55 by Taz
03-30-2009 11:24 AM


Re: 500 million years left on earth..
quote:
Malthus was wrong the first time because he didn't put into account the progress we'd make with technology and genetic engineering.
And as far as I can tell, alaninnont did the exact same thing. All he did was predict an increasing rate of population growth (which incidentally is contradicted by the webpage he cites) with no discussion whatsoever about potential increases in productivity.

For we know that our patchwork heritage is a strength, not a weakness. We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus -- and non-believers. -- Barack Obama
We see monsters where science shows us windmills. -- Phat

This message is a reply to:
 Message 55 by Taz, posted 03-30-2009 11:24 AM Taz has not replied

  
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