The numbers game...

Before getting too far into this are you familar with the Delphi Survey Method?

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Aslan is not a Tame Lion

Delphi Survey is a method developed, IIRC by the Rand Corporation. It is most often used as a tool for predictions and planning, usually by surveying a panel of experts in a field, but can also be used in most any situation.The basic premise is that if you ask a large body of people a question where they DO NOT know the answer, the responses will tend to clump around the correct answer. The idea is to remove the influence of a strong supporter that might happen in a meeting or gathering so that you get the individual responses. For example you might ask a million people when the Norman Conquest happened. Some few will know the date, but many will not. Yet when all the answers are analyzed you'll find there is a clump around 1066.The reason I bring this up is that there may well be some validity to the numbers.

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Aslan is not a Tame Lion

Yes. It can be iterative in nature. The key point is to give only the results and not the sources. If you expose the sources and one is a person of Authority, it skews the results towards the opinion of the Authority.One of the interesting places where Delphi was used in a novel was in Shockwave Rider. In the novel it had been adopted and adapted as a functional merger of Wall Street and Lotto, where you could vote by placing a wager on specific questions, "Who will be the next President of Paraguay?" or "Time travel will become reality in 2026?".

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Aslan is not a Tame Lion

The reason that I mentioned the Norman Invasion is that it is a known. Before placing any reliance on projections of something in the future it's good to have some confirmation that the method actually works. Tests can only be run against a known result, sorta a standard. It's like testing radiometric dating against something of known age.The amazing thing about the Delphi Method is that when a statistically large sample is used and questions asked where the respondents cannot know the answer, there really does seem to be some correlation between the responses and fact. The problem when we consider applying it to religion is that frankly, it's unlikely we will ever be able to arrive at a conclusion that can be transfered to others still living. If though, the method really works, then there is the possibility that similar value might be placed on such questions even though we will never know the answer for sure.

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Aslan is not a Tame Lion

No, not really. That is a straight lottery with no influence from society on the outcome. Delphi survey method is concerned with things where there is input from society on the outcome. For example, "In what year will the US become a Theocracy?" might be a question that could be answered through a Delphi survey.

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Aslan is not a Tame Lion

It can't confirm anything. Map & Territory. But it might give an indication. Confirmation comes from the item itself. But it might be useful in some ways. Remember, it is generally used to predict future events. It is also for questions where none of the participants KNOW the answer for sure. So it could be used on concepts and might even give a reasonable prediction. The example I used might well be one that would be both valid and of significant importance.

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Aslan is not a Tame Lion

Remember, a Diplomat, an Ambassador, does not represent his or her personal beliefs, but instead must represent the commission.

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Aslan is not a Tame Lion

Sure. Why not? I certainly can't see any reason how membership in some specific group would even come up?If the person is a Diplomat, and Ambassador, he or she would be a Representative of ...?

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Aslan is not a Tame Lion