Other civilisations in the Galaxy - are they really that likely?

Hi, Monk--I picked your latest message as a portal to the thread since you were the last to mention radio.In the discussions so far about the probable windows of identifiable broadcasts, I think one intriguing consideration has been neglected.In our own technological history, remote means of communication were as startling as magic, in part because we have no natural senses with that capability. Telegraph and radio were sensorially undetectable means of communication; they were private in a particular way. Our creaturely sense of caution was not invoked by a medium we could not perceive, and we were soon shouting out to the universe without much thought given to who might be listening.Other species communicate at great distances: elephants and whales, for example, using sound. Other species--sharks, moles(?)--detect prey by directly sensing their electromagnetic fields.Assume a world where remote communication is common and characteristic of the intelligent, technologically advanced species that arises there. One might learn to be extremely cautious about radiating any detectable broadcast if one's ancestors were predated by velociraptors (or cheetahs) with antennae.We cannot assume that every civilization that can broadcast, will.

Chiroptera:

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2Gyr is 1/7 of the age of the universe!

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Not to mention that it took half the lifetime of the sun for intelligent life to finally come about.

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Perhaps our solar system/planet is inimical to the emergence of intelligent life.

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Here's a strange thought that just occurred to me. A lot of evolutionary advance occurred after mass extinctions. Maybe life cannot "advance" too quickly if a planet is too stable. Maybe the emergence of intelligent life requires just the right balance of "instability" -- frequent enough mass extinctions to periodically reopen niches and further evolutionary innovation, but not so many that you end up losing what "gains" have already been made.

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A sort of planetary punctutated equilibrium.I was just wondering myself if a planet too conducive to life might be inimical to intelligence.You know, like the suburbs.

All the smart money is on the other side of the future event horizon.