Hi, RAZD.
Nice post, good overview: while I agree that...
RAXD writes:
The most popular use of experts is medical. People go to doctors because they know more about sickness and injury than the common joe\jane.
...let me point out that I was referring to the "most prominent public" aspects of expert opinion--paid or partisan speech in adversarial contexts--in order to discuss its caustic effect on confidence in experts.
Having worked in medical institutions for 20 years, I can tell you that people in general do no better at evaluating medical expertness than any other kind.
Quite aside from fringe medicine and fraud (crystals, naturopathy, homeopathy, mircale fad diets, etc., etc.) that, sadly, distract millions from better care, almost no one bothers to check a physician's credentials or even to obtain the limited outcome data publicly available. Opinion shopping often continues until the patient hears what she wants to hear, rather than until a consensus, or a broader understanding of the issues, is reached.
As a patient who has consulted multiple surgeons for multiple procedures over the years, I can report that, as my grandma said, when you go to the shoe store, they sell you shoes. On a related note, I can also report from long inside experience that while physicians generally order tests when they consider them necessary (for diagnosis or self-defense against malpractice claims), most labs get a rising number of normal scans and tests when business is slow... So I would say the negative impact of experts' self-interest on the credibility of expert opinion is pervasive in both public and private spheres.
My subjective sense is that experts received much greater deference in the mid 20th century, and I believe that the marketing of expert opinion as an adversarial commodity, and the failure of the media in general to vet supposed experts, are responsible for much lost esteem.
In Asia, I sometimes functioned as a "consulting expert" to American firms considering investment or wondering why their Asia investments had failed: the qualities required of an expert were often irrelevant to a knowledge or skill base--being from out of town, or being on the scene, or being without connection to anyone in the home office (and thus able to report what's happening on the ground without prejudice), or even being willing and able "to say what I (the executive who retains the expert) want to say but cannot."
Our schools, our media, our experts: all need to do a better job in teaching the public how to evaluate expert opinion. There are many barriers: skepticism of expert independence, resentment of a privileged class, susceptibility to appeals to consequence...but the stakes are high.